Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Canada: A New, Comprehensive Assessment

Generated Summary

This report, titled “Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Canada: A New, Comprehensive Assessment,” presents a detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian agricultural production and associated farm inputs. The study, conducted by the National Farmers Union, aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of GHG sources to inform farmers and policymakers in their efforts to reduce emissions. The assessment builds upon existing data and incorporates additional sources to provide a more complete picture of agricultural emissions, including those from fertilizer production, machinery use, and on-farm fuel consumption. The methodology involves a detailed categorization of emission sources, drawing upon data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and other sources. The study employs a multifaceted approach to analyzing emissions, focusing on both direct emissions and the often-overlooked indirect emissions, such as those related to nitrogen fertilizer use and land-use changes. The study seeks to identify the main drivers behind the rising agricultural emissions in Canada and provide valuable insights for developing effective mitigation strategies. It also provides a detailed breakdown of emissions across various categories, offering a granular perspective on the contributions of different agricultural activities to overall GHG emissions. This detailed, comprehensive analysis sets the stage for informed decision-making to reduce emissions in the agricultural sector, aligning with Canada’s broader climate commitments.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Canada is committed to reducing economy-wide GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050.
• The federal government has committed to work with farmers and industry to reduce emissions from fertilizer use to 30 percent below 2020 levels by 2030.
• Canada aims to reduce methane emissions from livestock production as part of its larger pledge to reduce overall methane emissions to 75 percent below 2012 levels by 2030.
• For 2019, IPCC Agriculture categories total 59 million tonnes (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year in Canada.
• Adding fuel use and production of fertilizer and machinery (reported in IPCC categories separate from Agriculture) brings the total to 81 Mt CO2e per year.
• In 2019, total emissions related to nitrogen fertilizer (from all seven categories) were 22.0 Mt CO2e, making this the second-largest source, after cattle.
• The graph’s top line rises from 67 Mt CO₂e in 1990 to 84 Mt in 2019.
• Emissions directly attributed to cattle totaled 27.0 Mt CO2e in 2019 and are reported in four categories: 2a. Enteric, beef cattle (CH4); 2b. Enteric, dairy cattle (CH4); 2c. Manure management, beef cattle (N₂O and CH4); and 2d. Manure management, dairy cattle (N₂O and CH4).
• Enteric methane is the largest component of cattle emissions: 19.0 Mt CO2e from beef cattle in 2019 and 3.5 Mt from dairy cattle.
• Emissions attributed to cattle have been declining since 2005.
• Emissions from other livestock (poultry, hogs, etc.) appear to be small—totaling just 3.9 Mt CO2e per year.
• Farm fuel and energy use account for about 17 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• The production of agricultural machinery and fertilizers yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• Nearly one-third of total agricultural emissions are related to fossil fuels and CO2.
• In 2019, the four categories for soil sequestration/de- totalled -5.7 Mt CO2e per year.
• In 2019, total emissions related to nitrogen fertilizer (from all seven categories) were 22.0 Mt CO2e.
• Emissions from nitrogen fertilizer production and use have nearly doubled since 1990.
• Emissions attributed to cattle have been declining since 2005.
• The emissions from the conversion of Forest Land to Cropland account for more than 90% of the total annual emissions in this category, which decreased from 9.5 Mt in 1990 to 3.6 Mt in 2019.
• Emissions from the production of machinery and fertilizer yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year, or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• Adding up all emissions from the production of agricultural machinery and fertilizers yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• Enteric emissions from beef cattle peaked in 2005, came down as herd size decreased in the five years following, and have stabilized since 2010.
• The values used for the category, “Soils, synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, direct,” take into account the negative values recorded in another ECCC category: “Changes in N2O emissions from adoption of no-till and reduced tillage.” This latter category is a negative adjustment to N2O emissions of about 1.5 Mt in 2019, negating 14 percent of nitrogen-fertilizer-related direct soil emissions in that year.
• Methane; 19.0 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 16.0-24.0 Mt); 22.6% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane; 3.5 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 2.9-4.2 Mt); 4.2% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane and nitrous oxide; 3.3 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range not specified, seemingly large, roughly ±50%?); 3.9% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane and nitrous oxide; 1.2 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range ±50%? See previous); 1.4% of Cdn. ag. emissions.
• Methane; 1.1 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 0.9-1.2 Mt); 1.3% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane and nitrous oxide; 1.8 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range ±50%? See “manure, beef cattle”); 2.1% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane and nitrous oxide; 0.8 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range ±50%?); 1.0% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Methane and nitrous oxide; 0.2 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range ±50%?); 0.2% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Nitrous oxide; 0.7 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 0.3–1.2); 0.8% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Nitrous oxide; 9.5 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 6.2–13.6 Mt); 11.3% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Carbon dioxide; 0.3 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range unknown); 0.3% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Primarily carbon dioxide, some nitrous oxide, and perhaps some methane; 6.9 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range high); 8.2% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Carbon dioxide; 0.3 Mt CO₂e /y in 2019 (uncertainty range ±1.4%); 11.8% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Carbon dioxide; 0.3 Mt CO₂e /y in 2019 (uncertainty range unknown); 0.4% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Total upstream emissions for natural gas production and processing in Canada in 2019 were 52.7 Mt CO₂e.
• Canadian “marketable production” of natural gas in 2019 was 6.94 billion gigajoules (GJ).
• This estimates that the emissions from the production of the farm machinery used on Canadian farms, including production of steel, rubber, glass, etc. 2.6 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range unknown); 3.1% of Cdn. ag. emissions.
• Nitrous oxide; 2.4 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 1.6–3.4 Mt); 2.9% of Cdn. ag. emissions.
• Nitrous oxide; 0.7 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range unknown); 0.8% of Cdn. ag. emissions.
• Nitrous oxide; 6.3 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range 4.1–9.1); 7.5% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Nitrous oxide; 0.1 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range roughly ±50%); 0.1% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Nitrous oxide; 0.4 Mt CO2e/y in 2019 (uncertainty range roughly ±50%); 0.5% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Carbon dioxide; 0.2 Mt CO₂e /y in 2019 (uncertainty range 0.1-0.4); 0.2% of Cdn. ag. emissions
• Trucking emissions of 60 grams CO₂e per tonne-km x 500 km average round trip from production facility, to distribution, to farm, and, in some cases, empty return trip (versus loaded backhaul) x 2019 nitrogen fertilizer product tonnage of 5.2 million.

Other Important Findings

• The largest single contributor to agricultural GHG emissions is beef production.
• Emissions from the production of machinery and fertilizers yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• When emissions from farm energy use and manufacture of farm inputs are added to IPCC Agriculture categories, total emissions are nearly a third higher than the sum of the IPCC Agriculture categories alone.
• Adding fuel use and production of fertilizer and machinery (reported in IPCC categories separate from Agriculture) brings the total to 81 Mt CO2e per year.
• As part of its work toward the 2019 publication of its report Tackling the Farm Crisis and the Climate Crisis, the NFU assembled a more complete picture of agricultural emissions—one that included production of fertilizer and farm machinery as well as on-farm fuel and energy use.
• Emissions from the production of machinery and fertilizer yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• Enteric emissions come out of the mouths of cattle and other “ruminants” as a result of stomach bacteria metabolism creating methane (CH4) during the digestion of grass and forage.
• The biosphere and atmosphere also include huge methane sinks (locations/processes wherein methane is broken down), many of which are increased or decreased by grazing, other agricultural practices, desertification, and other human actions and impacts.
• This report presents best estimates of Canadian agricultural emissions and wherever possible stays close to published ECCC data and UN reporting norms.
• When the NFU compiled its first assessment of agricultural emissions (Figure 2), we calculated that farm fuel and energy use accounted for about 11 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• This is not to assail beef or dairy production. To the contrary, cattle are vital parts of biodiverse, sustainable, nutrient-cycling ecosystems—core to regenerative agriculture, agroecology, mixed farming, and a range of solutions we must consider.
• Emissions from other livestock (poultry, hogs, etc.) appear to be small—totalling just 3.9 Mt CO2e per year, mostly from manure management.
• Fuel and energy use is a larger component than previously understood.
• Farm input production is a significant part of overall agricultural emissions. Adding up all emissions from the production of agricultural machinery and fertilizers yields a total of 11.8 Mt CO2e per year or 14 percent of total agricultural emissions.
• Nearly one-third of total agricultural emissions are related to fossil fuels and CO2.
• Declining emissions from cattle serve to countervail rising emissions from nitrogen fertilizer production and use—moderating the overall rate of increase in agricultural emissions.
• The most oft-mentioned example is soil carbon sequestration as a result of reductions in tillage: “no-till,” “zero-till,” “direct seeding,” or even “strip tillage.”
• IPCC-based reporting categorizes emissions from the production of machinery and fertilizer under “industrial processes and product use,” not agriculture.
• Adding fuel use and production of fertilizer and machinery (reported in IPCC categories separate from Agriculture) brings the total to 81 Mt CO2e per year.
• In 2019, total emissions related to nitrogen fertilizer (from all seven categories) were 22.0 Mt CO2e.
• The top line of the graph is rising because nitrogen-fertilizer-related emissions are rising.
• The top line of the graph is rising because nitrogen-fertilizer-related emissions are rising.
• The largest single contributor to agricultural GHG emissions is beef production.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The data is presented in incomplete and inadequately detailed formats.
• Many analyses omit key emission sources such as farm fuel use or input production.
• IPCC-based reporting categorizes emissions from the production of machinery and fertilizer under “industrial processes and product use,” not agriculture.
• Emissions from farm fuel and electricity use are reported in “energy” and “transport.”
• Foundational emissions data is not incomplete or coarsely aggregated; complete, detailed information is published by ECCC in the National Inventory Report (NIR) and elsewhere (see final page of this report for links). Rather, nearly all analyses (tables, graphs, reports) omit key emissions sources and fail to adequately disaggregate.
• The values used for this category, “Soils, synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, direct,” take into account the negative values recorded in another ECCC category: “Changes in N2O emissions from adoption of no-till and reduced tillage.” This latter category is a negative adjustment to N2O emissions of about 1.5 Mt in 2019, negating 14 percent of nitrogen-fertilizer-related direct soil emissions in that year.
• The data for emissions from upstream natural gas production and processing includes large uncertainties and gaps.
• The numbers and methodologies are under revision as part of ongoing work to refine reported values.
• Large uncertainties surround emissions from nitrogen fertilizer use.
• Also, in many depictions of agricultural emissions, sources are coarsely aggregated, e.g., with graphs and tables often not distinguishing between nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer versus N2O emissions from the application of manure, and simply reporting all such emissions as coming from “agricultural soils” (see Table 1 or Figure 1).
• There is a disconnect between the quantification of emissions tonnages from cattle and the interpretation of those reported emissions.
• This report presents best estimates of Canadian agricultural emissions and wherever possible stays close to published ECCC data and UN reporting norms. Although delving into all the details surrounding each emission source and process is beyond the scope of this report, it is, however, important to note, if only in passing, some factors that make interpretation of emissions data for livestock production more difficult.

Conclusion

The analysis concludes that Canadian agricultural emissions are high and rising, with synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use being a major driver. The report highlights the significant contribution of beef production to overall emissions and underscores the importance of accounting for fossil fuel use. A key emphasis is placed on the need for more detailed and comprehensive data, especially regarding the uncertainties in emission estimates. Despite these challenges, the report suggests that the data available is sufficient to enable swift action towards reducing emissions, especially in areas such as methane and fertilizer use. The study suggests the need for more granular assessments, specifically within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categories. Furthermore, the report underscores that reducing emissions from fossil fuels is equally important, given their significant role in Canadian food production systems. The document identifies the need for a systems approach to address the complex interdependencies within agriculture. It highlights that there are uncertainties regarding the exact emissions in most of the categories and suggests that continuous efforts are required to refine the data and reduce these uncertainties. The report emphasizes that a balanced approach is necessary, recognizing the role of cattle in sustainable agroecosystems, while also acknowledging the high emissions associated with beef and dairy production. The report also calls for a deeper understanding of emissions from various sources, especially regarding the production of nitric acid and methane leakage at fertilizer factories. The authors emphasize the importance of addressing emissions from various sources, including those from fuel use, and the need to account for the role of land-use changes and soil sequestration. Overall, the report serves as a crucial resource for farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders. It provides a detailed assessment of GHG emissions in Canada, helping to inform effective strategies for reducing emissions and achieving climate goals. The report emphasizes the need for continued efforts to refine data, understand complexities, and implement a systems-based approach to reduce emissions across the agricultural sector, aligning with Canada’s commitment to climate action. The report’s insights are also intended to support the creation of sound and effective government policies and programs, which will in turn assist farmers as they work to transition towards lower-emission systems and practices.