Methane, Markets And Food

Generated Summary

This working paper from the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) examines the urgent need to address methane emissions to mitigate climate change, particularly within the food and agricultural industries. The study employs a market-framed analysis to understand how changes in social pressures can drive market shifts and forecasts, highlighting the potential for significant disruptions and wealth creation within the agri-food sector. The paper underscores the limitations of focusing solely on fossil fuel and waste sectors for methane reduction, advocating for a more comprehensive approach that includes the food and agriculture industries. The core of the research explores the role of methane in climate change, identifies the primary sources of anthropogenic methane emissions, and analyzes the greatest opportunities for methane reductions in the next decade, emphasizing the potential for technological solutions to disrupt industrialized agricultural and food markets. The methodology involves a review of scientific literature, market analysis, and consideration of economic factors to assess the feasibility and impact of various methane reduction strategies.

Key Findings & Statistics

• The global agricultural sector accounts for approximately 40% of methane emissions from anthropogenic sources.
• Fossil fuels account for roughly 35% of anthropogenic methane emissions, with oil and gas contributing 23% and coal mining 12%.
• Waste contributes about 20% of global anthropogenic methane emissions.
• Livestock emissions from manure and enteric fermentation account for about 32% of the agricultural sector’s methane emissions.
• Rice cultivation contributes to around 8% of global anthropogenic methane emissions.
• Methane is often reported as having 28 times more warming impact than CO2, but over 10 years, methane is 90-115 times more potent.
• The Global Methane Pledge aims to cut global methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
• More than 70% of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can be abated with existing technologies, and around 45% can be abated at no cost.
• The report from the Food and Land Use Coalition found that transitioning to a sustainable food system would cost $300-$350 billion annually, but would deliver a net yield of $5.7 trillion annually by 2030.
• The market share of alternative proteins is expected to be between 16% and 62% by 2050, according to different scenarios.
• In 2020, solar PV and wind captured 27% and 24% of investment in new power capacity, respectively, while coal only captured 12%.
• The market for cell-cultivated ground meat is capable of falling to $5.66 – $10/kg, compared to $1.2 mill per pound retail in 2013.
• The top 5 global agricultural trade flows in 2020: Brazil to China (USD $23.2 billion).
• Around 70% of the exports between Brazil and China correspond to soybean trade.
• The amount of global land use for grazing accounts for 60% of all agricultural land use.
• The agricultural sector consumes 70% of freshwater extraction globally.

Other Important Findings

• The paper argues that the climate emergency is driving an urgent need to focus on methane reduction, with action needed in the next decade to slow the rate of warming.
• Methane is identified as the most powerful lever for reducing near-term warming.
• The primary focus on reducing methane emissions from fossil fuels and waste is considered flawed.
• The agri-food sector is primed for rapid and exponential change.
• Technological solutions are ready to disrupt industrialized agricultural and food markets, and the process can be accelerated with deliberate policy and market action.
• The shift to sustainable food systems is inevitable, driven by economic factors and the need to address the current system’s limitations.
• Consumers will not be the only determinant of how the disruption will unfold, but rather business-to-business interactions in the food supply chain.
• The current food system is broken and needs to be replaced with one that is more fit for purpose.
• The disruption in the food system will be very different due to the different market structures.
• In the 1-to-10-year time frame, the greatest opportunity lies in food and agriculture.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The paper’s primary focus is on methane reduction, and it does not comprehensively address other aspects of climate change mitigation.
• The analysis is based on market-framed approaches, which may not fully capture the complexities of social, political, and ethical considerations.
• The success of the proposed actions depends on the effective implementation of policies, market mechanisms, and technological advancements, which can be subject to uncertainty and delays.
• The reliance on market forces to drive change may not fully address the potential for social and economic impacts during the transition.
• The paper’s conclusions are based on existing evidence and projections, which are subject to the limitations inherent in any forecasting or predictive analysis.

Conclusion

The central premise of the working paper is that the climate emergency demands urgent action on methane emissions, presenting both challenges and opportunities, particularly within the food and agriculture sectors. The study emphasizes that the most effective approach to mitigate climate change involves pursuing all available options, particularly in the short term. The analysis suggests that the greatest opportunity for reducing methane emissions lies within the food and agricultural sectors, advocating for a shift in perspective from ‘pain to gain.’ By focusing on this sector, the study concludes that the world can manage the inevitable decline and collapse of the current food system to be replaced with one that is more fit for purpose. The disruption in the food system will be very different due to the different market structures. The study highlights the crucial role of the market in driving this transformation, emphasizing that it is social, political, and moral pressure that triggers change. However, markets ultimately deliver it. The analysis stresses that the current approach to climate mitigation is insufficient and needs to be replaced with a strategy that acknowledges the significant potential for dramatic reductions within the next ten years. The study contends that the shift towards a sustainable food system is inevitable, driven by a combination of factors, including the need to address the limitations of the current system and the potential for new disruptive technologies to reshape the market. The insights underscore the importance of embracing the pressure to navigate the transition and to capitalize on the enormous opportunities. The paper concludes by emphasizing that this is not simply a matter of environmental protection but a question of the future of the economy, society, and human civilization. The key takeaway is the call for action, for the urgent reduction of methane emissions to slow warming and secure a viable long term. This calls for a proactive approach and highlights the potential for the food and agricultural sectors to be at the forefront of climate action. “We should therefore pursue all available options to reduce methane emissions and rates of warming – our best available option for reducing the risk of runaway climate change.”The evidence tells a different story. It shows the potential for enormous disruption and opportunity, with action already underway which could now be accelerated with deliberate policy and market action.