Generated Summary
The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change presents findings from 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report, representing the consensus of 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies, assesses the emerging health profile of climate change. The study uses various methodologies, including analyzing data from climate scientists, geographers, engineers, energy experts, economists, social and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors, to understand the impacts and potential solutions to the converging crises of climate change and its effects on human health. The primary objective is to track the changing climate’s emerging health profile and to provide an independent global monitoring system. The 2020 report highlights the increasing severity of climate change impacts, including a rise in global average temperature, shifts in social and environmental determinants of health, and worsening trends in climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities. The findings emphasize the need for accelerated efforts to tackle climate change and to address the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in a way that aligns with long-term public health imperatives. It also focuses on how the health sector can play a central role in adapting to and mitigating climate change, maximizing health benefits, and communicating the need for an accelerated response.
Key Findings & Statistics
- Global Average Temperature: Increased by 1.2°C.
- Hottest Years on Record: All five hottest years on record have occurred since 2015.
- Heatwave Events in 2019: 475 million additional heatwave events globally, leading to excess morbidity and mortality.
- Increase in Heat-Related Mortality (People >65): 53.7% increase in heat-related mortality in people older than 65 years over the past 20 years, reaching 296,000 deaths in 2018.
- Potential Labour Capacity Loss in 2019: 302 billion hours of potential labour capacity lost in 2019 due to heat.
- Economic Impact of Heat-Related Mortality in Europe (2018): Monetized cost equivalent to 1.2% of regional gross national income, or the average income of 11 million European citizens.
- Extreme Weather Events with Climate Change Fingerprints: Climate change fingerprints identified in 76 floods, droughts, storms, and temperature anomalies between 2015 and 2020.
- Increase in Exposure to Very High or Extremely High Wildfire Risk (2001-04 vs. 2016-19): Increase in the number of days people were exposed to a very high or extremely high risk of wildfire in 114 countries.
- Cities Expecting Climate Change to Compromise Public Health (Indicator 2.1.3): 67% of surveyed global cities expect climate change to seriously compromise public health assets and infrastructure.
- Increase in Dengue Transmission (1950 to 2018): The global climate suitability for the transmission of dengue increased by 8.9% for Aedes aegypti and 15.0% for Aedes albopictus.
- Increase in Malaria Suitability (Highland Areas, 2015-19 vs. 1950s): Suitability for malaria transmission in highland areas was 38.7% higher in the African region and 149.7% higher in the Western Pacific region.
- Potential Population Exposure to Rising Sea Levels (1m & 5m Rise): 145 million people exposed to a 1 m rise in sea levels, and 565 million exposed to a 5 m rise.
- Average Annual Growth Rate in Renewable Energy Capacity (2010-2017): 21%.
- Low-Carbon Electricity in China (2017): Low-carbon electricity responsible for 28% of capacity in China.
- Health Services Connected to Meteorological Services (Indicator 2.2): Health services in 86 countries are now connected with their equivalent meteorological services.
- National Health Adaptation Plans: At least 51 countries have developed plans for national health adaptation.
- Global Spending in Health Adaptation (2018-19): Spending in health adaptation rose to 5.3% of all adaptation spending in 2018-19, reaching US$18.4 billion in 2019.
- Healthcare Sector’s Contribution to Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2017): 4.6%.
- Decline in Delivery of Care Emissions (UK): The UK National Health Service has declared an ambition to deliver a net-zero health service as soon as possible, building on a decade of impressive progress in reducing delivery of care emissions by 57% since 1990, and by 22% when considering the service’s supply chain and broader responsibilities.
- Annual Global CO2 Emissions (2018): 51.8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO₂e; 55.3 GtCO₂e including land use change), with fossil fuel emissions accounting for 37.5 GtCO₂e (72%).
- Increase in Global Coal Use (2018): The phase-out of coal-fired power is an important first step in the mitigation of climate change, with global coal use for energy increasing by 1.2% from 2017 to 2018, and by 74% since 1990.
- Share of Global Electricity Generation from Low-Carbon Sources (2017): 33%.
- Average Annual Growth Rate in Power Generation from Wind and Solar (2010-2017): 21% globally and 38% in China.
- Households with Primary Reliance on Clean Fuels for Cooking (2018): 63% of the global population relies primarily on clean fuels and technologies for cooking, an increase of 26% since 2000.
- Consumption of Zero-Emission Energy in the Home (2017): Overall use of zero-emission energy in the home (for all sources, including heating and lighting) remains low (26% globally).
- Premature Deaths from Ambient PM2.5 (2018): 3.01 million, a slight increase from 2.95 million deaths in 2015.
- Deaths from Coal Combustion (2018): 390,000.
- Electric Vehicle Fleet Increase (2016-2018): Global electric vehicle fleet increased to more than 5.1 million vehicles in 2018, a rise of 2 million vehicles in only 12 months.
- Investment in Health Adaptation (2018-19): Global spending on health system adaptation increased by 12.7% to $18.4 billion.
- Number of Health-Care Sector Companies in the UN Global Compact (2019): 12 (24%) of 50 companies refer to links between climate change and health.
- Increase in Newspaper Articles on Climate Change and Health (2007-2019): Average monthly number of newspaper articles on climate change and health and climate change increased by 57%, and the average monthly number of articles on climate change increased by 23%.
- Increase in Individual Information Seeking on Health and Climate Change (2018-2019): Individual information seeking increased by 24%.
- Increase in Original Research on Health and Climate Change (2007-2019): Original research on health and climate change increased by a factor of eight, a trend driven by research led by scientists in high-income countries.
- Global Value of Funds Divested from Fossil Fuels (2019): $4.01 trillion, of which health institutions accounted for around $19 million. From 2008 to the end of 2019, 1157 organizations, with cumulative assets worth at least $11.51 trillion, have committed to fossil fuel divestment
Other Important Findings
- The report highlights that climate change is worsening in all domains of section 1, with accelerating trends in the indicators.
- Climate change disproportionately impacts populations who have contributed the least to the problem, highlighting deeper questions of justice and equity.
- The causes of climate change, such as carbon-intensive practices and policies, lead to poor air quality, poor food quality, and poor housing quality, harming the health of disadvantaged populations.
- The changing climate has downstream effects, impacting broader environmental systems that harm human health.
- Global food security is threatened by rising temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme events. Global yield potential for major crops declined by 1.8–5.6% between 1981 and 2019 (indicator 1.4.1).
- The health-care sector is taking early but important steps to reduce its own emissions.
- Individual health professionals and their associations are also responding well, with health institutions committing to divest more than $42 billion worth of assets from fossil fuels.
- Publication of original research on health and climate change has increased by a factor of eight from 2007 to 2019.
- The growing engagement from the health profession during the past 5 years is now beginning to fill a crucial gap in the global response to climate change.
- The report emphasizes the need for accelerated efforts to tackle climate change and the need for interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- National governments are increasingly paying attention to health and climate change, with a growing number of countries referencing health in their NDCs.
- The economic and financial dimensions of public health and climate change are central to any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation effort.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The report acknowledges the limitations of the methods and data used for analysis, with the potential for selection bias and challenges in assessing the impacts of long-term interventions at the global scale.
- The report notes that the precise nature and timing of data updates vary depending on the data source, which could affect the comparability of the data.
- The reliance on self-reported data on adaptation plans, assessments, and services presents challenges in validating these data.
- The analysis of the content of coverage in newspapers in India and the USA is limited to specific time periods.
- The study acknowledges the complexities of correlating climate change and mental health.
Conclusion
The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown underscores the urgent need for accelerated and comprehensive action to address the health impacts of climate change. The report emphasizes that the indicators show a concerning lack of progress in numerous sectors, including a continued failure to reduce the carbon intensity of the global energy system, and an increase in agricultural emissions and premature deaths from excess red meat consumption. These issues are, however, counteracted by the growth of renewable energy, improvements in low-carbon transport, and the growing engagement from the health profession. The report provides robust statistics showing the relationship of climate change and its impact on human health. For instance, the 2020 report highlights the alarming rise in heat-related mortality, with 296,000 deaths recorded in 2018. It also points to the spread of infectious diseases, with dengue, malaria, and Vibrio bacteria transmission increasing due to changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, it highlights the vulnerability of populations exposed to rising sea levels and the decline in crop yield potential. The report also suggests that the global response has remained muted. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has remained stable, and global coal use for energy has increased significantly. While the trends are concerning, the report points to a positive momentum in the health sector, with increased spending on health system adaptation and growing research on health and climate change. The report underscores the need for strong investments in mitigation and adaptation technologies to reduce the impact of climate change. Moreover, there is a need for policies to coordinate and for cross-sectoral collaboration, as well as for the integration of these topics with international agreements. The researchers suggest that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic needs to be aligned with national climate change strategies to prevent further damage to the global health and health system in the future. The authors emphasize that the window of opportunity is narrow and the need for effective action is now more critical than ever to protect human health and build resilient communities. The report’s findings underscore that the health of the world’s population depends on a strong commitment to mitigating climate change, and that the actions taken in the near future will determine the health of generations to come.