Abstract
Achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5°C target requires a reversal of the growing atmospheric concentrations of methane, which is about 80 times more potent than CO2 on a 20-year timescale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report stated that methane is underregulated, but little is known about the effectiveness of existing methane policies. In this review, we systematically examine existing methane policies across the energy, waste, and agriculture sectors. We find that currently only about 13% of methane emissions are covered by methane mitigation policies. Moreover, the effectiveness of these policies is far from clear, mainly because methane emissions are largely calculated using potentially unrepresentative estimates instead of direct measurements. Coverage and stringency are two major blind spots in global methane policies. These findings suggest that significant and underexplored mitigation opportunities exist, but unlocking them requires policymakers to identify a consistent approach for accurate quantification of methane emission sources alongside greater policy stringency.
Generated Summary
This review article systematically examines existing methane policies across the energy, waste, and agriculture sectors. The study employs a comprehensive approach, analyzing the stringency and coverage of these policies while assessing their effectiveness in reducing methane emissions. The research utilizes a global methane policy database, which includes 281 policies adopted or expected to be adopted between 1974 and 2024 at international, regional, national, and subnational levels. The methodology involves an in-depth analysis of these policies, categorized by their aim (emissions monitoring or mitigation), type (regulatory, economic, information, and complementary), and scope (type of emissions, facilities, and supply chain covered). The findings are then compared with regional emission estimates to identify gaps in existing methane policies, focusing on their effectiveness, the stringency of their design, and their overall impact. The primary goal of the review is to highlight the existing gaps in methane policy, proposing a more effective and stringent approach.
Key Findings & Statistics
- Achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5°C target requires a reversal of the growing atmospheric concentrations of methane.
- Methane is about 80 times more potent than CO2 on a 20-year timescale.
- Currently, only about 13% (min. 10%, max. 17%) of global methane emissions are covered by direct methane mitigation policies.
- The analysis includes 281 policies directly aimed at reducing methane emissions adopted or expected to be adopted between 1974 and 2024.
- Almost half of the policies (n = 138 or 49%) target methane emissions arising from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas).
- 42% (n = 117) of policies target biogenic methane originating from the agriculture and waste sectors.
- 255 policies are currently in force.
- Ninety percent of identified national policies have been adopted in three regions: North America (39%), Europe (30%), and Asia-Pacific (21%).
- The observed increase coincides with the 2016 North America Leaders’ Summit, during which Canada, Mexico, and the US pledged to reduce methane emissions from their oil and gas sectors by 40%-45% by 2025.
- The stringency of policies targeting fossil methane (mean [M] = 0.32, SD = 0.13) is lower than that targeting biogenic methane (M = 0.38, SD = 0.13).
- Regulations are more frequently used to address fossil than biogenic methane because they account for 41% of all policies targeting fossil methane but only 25% in the case of biogenic methane.
- Analysis at the sectoral level shows that the stringency of policies targeting fossil methane (mean [M] = 0.32, SD = 0.13) is lower than that targeting biogenic methane (M = 0.38, SD = 0.13).
- The policies in the energy sector concentrate on reduction of emissions from the largest sources, i.e. the oil and gas sector, emissions from burning of methane (flaring) followed by intentional release of methane (venting) are the major and most frequently regulated types of emissions.
- Only ~13% (min. 10%, max. 17%) of global methane emissions are currently covered by direct methane mitigation policies.
Other Important Findings
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report stated that methane is underregulated, but little is known about the effectiveness of existing methane policies.
- Coverage and stringency are two major blind spots in global methane policies.
- The need for comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation strategies (e.g., addressing methane emissions) is highlighted by a growing body of literature.
- Methane emissions are increasing faster than at any time since the 1980s.
- The Global Methane Assessment shows that mitigation of man-made methane emissions is one of the most cost-effective strategies to reduce the rate of warming, while also having a positive impact on air quality.
- There are significant differences in mitigation potential across the sectors and regions.
- Full deployment of available mitigation measures would decrease projected 2030 methane emissions by half.
- The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) was launched at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26).
- Global, sectoral, and regional emission estimates remain uncertain.
- There is a growing number of food waste regulations affecting methane emissions, especially in Europe and parts of Asia-Pacific.
- Governments use various tools (policy instruments) to purse their policies.
- The main policy instrument types used are: regulatory, economic, information, and complementary.
- Through regulatory instruments, a policymaker mandates adoption of technologies and operational processes or specifies the outcomes.
- Economic instruments-emission trading systems (ETS), offset credits, taxes and charges, fiscal and financial incentives, and incentives for price-regulated entities.
- Information instruments improve awareness of emission and mitigation options among different stakeholders.
- Regulatory, economic, and information instruments can be complemented by voluntary programs, research and development (R&D) subsidies, and public procurement.
- Almost half of them (n = 138 or 49%) target methane emissions arising from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas).
- Ninety percent of identified national policies have been adopted in three regions: North America (39%), Europe (30%), and Asia-Pacific (21%).
- While some jurisdictions concentrate on restricting the volume and situations when flaring and venting is allowed by introducing flaring and venting permits or imposing restrictions/bans on routine flaring and venting, others promote use of the associated gas.
- Methane regulations are common in the energy sector, especially with regard to flaring and venting, but significant differences in the regulatory approaches exist.
- Policies in the energy sector concentrate on reduction of emissions from the largest sources.
- In agriculture, the policies target mostly emissions from animal waste (manure), which, globally, is a smaller source of methane emissions than enteric fermentation.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- There is bias toward developed economies where information is more widespread.
- There is a Western focus because of the language limitations.
- There is bias toward the national policies.
- The study does not capture policies with indirect impact on methane emissions.
- The causes of the emissions across different sectors are really different, and so one solution for one sector may be unlikely to be suitable for another.
- The study may not fully capture the policy developments in developing economies.
- The database may not fully capture policies adopted at the subnational, local, and municipal level, which may have a significant impact on waste-related emissions.
- The recent policy developments are concentrated in the energy sector, and the study has a strong energy focus.
- The literature review could be limited because it mostly relied on information freely available in English.
Conclusion
The review underscores the critical need to address methane emissions as a key component of global efforts to combat climate change. It emphasizes that current methane mitigation policies are insufficient, with only a small fraction of global emissions covered by direct mitigation measures. The study’s central argument revolves around the concept that current policies lack adequate coverage and stringency. It advocates for a more consistent approach that includes the precise identification, quantification, and verification of methane emission sources. The authors emphasize that greater policy coverage must be coupled with stricter regulations to achieve meaningful emission reductions. They suggest a shift towards performance-based regulations and the integration of economic instruments, particularly GHG pricing, to incentivize emission reductions. The analysis suggests a need for more regional and national policies to unlock methane mitigation opportunities, particularly in regions with high emissions and faster economic growth. The study highlights that designing effective methane policies requires considering various factors, including policy objectives, scope, and integration with other instruments. The authors recommend focusing on super-emitters and addressing the challenges of measuring and verifying methane emissions. The research also points out that methane policies may have unintended consequences, and the importance of the adoption of new production taxes as a key way of financing the additional infrastructure projects to offset emissions. Further reductions rest on continued development of methane detection and quantification technologies. This work strongly supports the need to refine current policy approaches to better address the challenge of methane emissions and contribute significantly to climate change mitigation.