Abstract
Food systems have the potential to nurture human health and support environmental sustainability; however, they are currently threatening both. Providing a growing global population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global food production of calories has kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume low-quality diets that cause micronutrient deficiencies and contribute to a substantial rise in the incidence of diet-related obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined. Because much of the world’s population is inadequately nourished and many environmental systems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries by food production, a global transformation of the food system is urgently needed. The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system. This Commission brings together 19 Commissioners and 18 coauthors from 16 counties in various fields of human health, agriculture, political sciences, and environmental sustainability to develop global scientific targets based on the best evidence available for healthy diets and sustainable food production. These global targets define a safe operating space for food systems that allow us to assess which diets and food production practices will help ensure that the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement are achieved. We quantitatively describe a universal healthy reference diet to provide a basis for estimating the health and environmental effects of adopting an alternative diet to standard current diets, many of which are high in unhealthy foods. Scientific targets for a healthy reference diet are based on extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns, and health outcomes. This healthy reference diet largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils, includes a low to moderate amount of seafood and poultry, and includes no or a low quantity of red meat, processed meat, added sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables. The global average intake of healthy foods is substantially lower than the reference diet intake, whereas overconsumption of unhealthy foods is increasing. Using several approaches, we found with a high level of certainty that global adoption of the reference dietary pattern would provide major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality. The Commission integrates, with quantification of universal healthy diets, global scientific targets for sustainable food systems, and aims to provide scientific boundaries to reduce environmental degradation caused by food production at all scales. Scientific targets for the safe operating space of food systems were established for six key Earth system processes. Strong evidence indicates that food production is among the largest drivers of global environmental change by contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use, interference with the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and land-system change. The Commission concludes that quantitative scientific targets constitute universal and scalable planetary boundaries for the food system. However, the uncertainty range for these food boundaries remains high because of the inherent complexity in Earth system dynamics. Diets inextricably link human health and environmental sustainability. The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems are integrated into a common framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so that win-win diets (ie, healthy and environmentally sustainable) can be identified. We propose that this framework is universal for all food cultures and production systems in the world, with a high potential of local adaptation and scalability. Application of this framework to future projections of world development indicates that food systems can provide healthy diets (ie, reference diet) for an estimated global population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to achieve. Within boundaries of food production, the reference diet can be adapted to make meals that are consistent with food cultures and cuisines of all regions of the world. Because food systems are a major driver of poor health and environmental degradation, global efforts are urgently needed to collectively transform diets and food production. An integrative framework combined with scientific targets
Generated Summary
The EAT-Lancet Commission, a collaborative effort involving 19 Commissioners and 18 co-authors from 16 countries across various fields, including human health, agriculture, and environmental sustainability, presents a comprehensive analysis of global food systems. The study aimed to establish global scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production. The methodology involved a global food systems model, country-level data analysis, and the integration of diverse dietary scenarios and environmental footprints. The primary goal was to define a safe operating space for food systems that aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. This comprehensive framework provides a basis for assessing the health and environmental effects of adopting alternative diets and food production practices.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The global average per capita energy intake has been estimated as 2370 kcal per day, with about 2800 kcal per day for men and 2000-2200 kcal per day for women.
- Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to both people and planet.
- The global burden of non-communicable diseases is predicted to worsen.
- A greater than 50% reduction in global consumption of unhealthy foods, such as red meat and sugar, and a greater than 100% increase in consumption of healthy foods, such as nuts, fruits, vegetables, and legumes is needed.
- Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts.
- Adopting the reference diet could avoid about 11.1 million deaths per year in 2030 and reduce premature mortality by 19%.
- Universal adoption of a diet similar to the reference diet would prevent 10.9 million deaths per year or 22.4% of adult deaths.
- Projected increases in food production could lead to a 50–90% increase in greenhouse-gas emissions, cropland use, and freshwater use, and nitrogen and phosphorus application from 2010 to 2050.
- Global emissions from food production should be kept at or less than 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in 2050. This represents nearly half of the allowable global emissions from all sources.
- If the agricultural share of the 2800 km³/year planetary boundary is set to 90% by 2050, the global water boundary for food production would be about 2500 km³/year.
- About 28 g/day of fish can provide essential omega-3 fatty acids.
- The total global application of nitrogen is estimated to be about 130 Tg per year.
- We estimate that the global long-term boundary of phosphorus application from food production should be 8 Tg of phosphorus per year.
- The boundary from food production should be set at a rate of loss no greater than the historical background rate, which is less than ten extinctions per million species per year.
- The main driver of biodiversity loss is the conversion of natural habitat (e.g., primary tropical forest) to agricultural land.
- The reference diet includes about 28 g/day of red meat, with a midpoint of 14 g/day, with an uncertainty range of 0 g/day to about 28 g/day.
- The reference diet suggests 250 g/day of dairy products.
Other Important Findings
- The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system.
- The absence of targets is a barrier for policy makers and businesses.
- Plant-based foods have fewer adverse environmental effects per unit weight, per serving, or per protein weight than animal source foods.
- Vegetarian diets are associated with the greatest reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions and land use.
- Meat from ruminants has the highest environmental effects per serving.
- A shift toward plant-based diets has high mitigation potential.
- Improved production practices could reduce agricultural greenhouse-gas emissions in 2050 by about 10%, whereas an increase in the consumption of plant-based diets could reduce emissions by up to 80%.
- Halving food loss and waste could further reduce emissions by 5%.
- The main drivers of biodiversity loss are habitat loss and fragmentation, and the greatest driver of biodiversity loss is human appropriation of land for food production.
- Rebalancing regional production on the basis of biodiversity concerns could mitigate those additional stresses.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The environmental footprints of individual food products are difficult to distinguish and compare with high certainty.
- Most existing food and diet studies assessing environmental impacts consider only greenhouse-gas emissions and lack integrated analysis of other impact dimensions of food systems, such as biodiversity, animal welfare, and nutrient leaching.
- The study’s projections of future yield trends are based on data on yield trends and potential yield improvements, which are more straight-forward, but these too are subject to uncertainty.
- The analysis acknowledges that setting such targets is difficult and that the results should be viewed as guides for decision-makers on acceptable levels of risk.
- The Commission did not investigate the role of innovative technologies that are not yet proven at scale but might become operational in the future.
Conclusion
The EAT-Lancet Commission’s work offers a comprehensive, integrated approach to transforming global food systems to promote both human health and environmental sustainability. The study’s core finding is that achieving these goals requires a substantial shift towards healthy dietary patterns, reductions in food loss and waste, and major improvements in food production practices. A key element of the proposed transformation is the shift towards healthy diets, primarily plant-based, which offers the greatest potential for reducing environmental impacts. The Commission’s framework is designed to be universally applicable, with a high potential for local adaptation and scalability, providing guidelines for diverse food cultures and production systems. This approach involves concerted efforts across multiple sectors and levels, from international policy to individual choices. It emphasizes that food systems operate within a safe operating space that protects both human health and the environment. To facilitate this transformation, the Commission proposes five key strategies: shifting toward healthy diets, reorienting agricultural priorities, sustainably intensifying food production, implementing strong governance of land and oceans, and reducing food loss and waste. This framework provides a basis for assessing the health and environmental effects of adopting alternative diets and food production practices. The study demonstrates that, with concerted effort, it is possible to feed a global population of nearly 10 billion people a healthy diet while staying within food production boundaries by 2050. This transformation requires widespread, multi-sector, and multi-level action. The report underscores the need for clear scientific targets and proactive strategies to support human health and environmental sustainability in an era facing climate change and environmental degradation.
IFFS Team Summary
- 2019 ** Food in the Anthropocene- the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems – main folder – PBD – enviro – EAT Lancet .pdf
- Comprehensive document about nutrition and global environment
- Covers a massive range of topics, and overall recommendation is plant based eating
- good focus on legumes, including soy and peanuts, and whole grains
- also nuts seeds fruit and vegetables
- should recommend fortified soy milk
- “Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10.8–11.6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19.0–23.6%.”
- Dr. Mehta’s concern over recommendations regarding fish
- if existing fish-eaters stick with the suggested 28 g per day, fish populations are and ocean environment is still threatened
- but if non fish-eaters start, in order to meet the Lancet recommendations, then there will be a massive increased burden to the ocean biome
- the same holds true for chicken consumption
- Discusses “Half Earth” preservation concept
- Also covers fertilizer and nutrient cycling and many ecological topics
- Acknowledges food as the the largest ecological impact of humans