Abstract
Demand for animal protein is rising globally and has been facilitated by the expansion of intensive farming. However, intensive animal production relies on the regular use of antimicrobials to maintain health and productivity on farms. The routine use of antimicrobials fuels the development of antimicrobial resistance, a growing threat for the health of humans and animals. Monitoring global trends in antimicrobial use is essential to track progress associated with antimicrobial stewardship efforts across regions. We collected antimicrobial sales data for chicken, cattle, and pig systems in 41 countries in 2017 and projected global antimicrobial consumption from 2017 to 2030. We used multivariate regression models and estimated global antimicrobial sales in 2017 at 93,309 tonnes (95% CI: 64,443, 149,886). Globally, sales are expected to rise by 11.5% in 2030 to 104,079 tonnes (95% CI: 69,062, 172,711). All continents are expected to increase their antimicrobial use. Our results show lower global antimicrobial sales in 2030 compared to previous estimates, owing to recent reports of decrease in antimicrobial use, in particular in China, the world’s largest consumer. Countries exporting a large proportion of their production are more likely to report their antimicrobial sales data than countries with small export markets.
Generated Summary
This research, published as a journal article, explores global trends in antimicrobial use (AMU) in food animals from 2017 to 2030. The study focuses on the rising global demand for animal protein and the associated reliance on antimicrobials in intensive farming to maintain animal health and productivity. The authors collected antimicrobial sales data for chicken, cattle, and pig systems in 41 countries in 2017 and projected global antimicrobial consumption from 2017 to 2030. Using multivariate regression models, the study aimed to estimate global antimicrobial sales and analyze regional differences and the impact of export markets on reporting practices. The methodology involved gathering sales data, extrapolating consumption in non-reporting countries, and projecting future consumption based on animal population and production system data.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The study estimated global antimicrobial sales in 2017 at 93,309 tonnes (95% CI: 64,443, 149,886).
- Globally, sales are expected to rise by 11.5% in 2030 to 104,079 tonnes (95% CI: 69,062, 172,711).
- Pigs had the largest projected increase in antimicrobial consumption and contributed 45% to the total increase between 2017 and 2030.
- On average, pigs used 193 mg/PCU in 2017.
- Cattle had the smallest increase in consumption of antimicrobials, accounting for only 22% of the global increase.
- In 2017, cattle consumed 42 mg/PCU of antimicrobials.
- Chickens consumed 68 mg/PCU of antimicrobials on average in 2017 and contributed 33% to the global increase in antimicrobial consumption.
- Asia consumed the largest amounts of antimicrobials in both 2017 (57,167 tonnes) and 2030 (63,062 tonnes), with an expected increase of 10.3% over this time period.
- The projected Asian AMU in 2030 amounts to 68% of the antimicrobials used worldwide in 2017.
- Africa had the highest expected increase by 2030 (37%), but this amounts to just 6.1% of the global consumption in 2030.
- China was the largest consumer of veterinary antimicrobials in 2017, accounting for 45% of global use, and is projected to remain the largest consumer in 2030 (43%).
- The top 10 veterinary antimicrobial consumers in 2017 were: China (45%), Brazil (7.9%), the United States (7.0%), Thailand (4.2%), India (2.2%), Iran (1.9%), Spain (1.9%), Russia (1.8%), Mexico (1.7%), and Argentina (1.5%).
- These countries account for 75% of the antimicrobials used in animal production, but only 50% of the world’s human population.
- In 2030, these top 10 countries are anticipated to use 72% of the total antimicrobials consumed throughout the world.
- In China, there are multiple data sources that report highly disparate estimates of the national consumption of antimicrobials. The official government source reported 41,967 tonnes in 2017, while a scientific publication estimated 78,200 tonnes in 2013.
- Countries that export a significant share of their animal production were more likely to report antimicrobial sales data.
- The export of animal products plays an important economic role for many countries.
Other Important Findings
- The study found that countries exporting a large proportion of their production are more likely to report their antimicrobial sales data than countries with small export markets.
- The expected increase in consumption of antimicrobials in animals is less than previous projections (53% by 2030).
- The significant decrease in Chinese veterinary antimicrobial sales from 2013–2017, before the creation of the Chinese national action plan, suggests the need for a closer examination of the estimates from these two data sources.
- In high-income countries (HICs), declines in antimicrobial sales have been reported between 2015 and 2017. These decreases are attributable to antimicrobial stewardship efforts in HICs.
- Brazil, the world’s largest meat exporter, does not report antimicrobial sales data.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study did not take into account the aquaculture sector.
- The study was restricted to sales data from only 41 countries due to a lack of public reports from other countries.
- Data for HICs and MICs were extrapolated to estimate antimicrobial consumption in LMICs.
- The majority of countries that did report AMU did not report sales broken down by animal type.
- Antimicrobial sales are only a proxy for actual antimicrobial consumption.
Conclusion
The research underscores the ongoing global challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the animal production sector. The study’s findings indicate a projected increase in antimicrobial use by 2030, albeit less than previously estimated, highlighting the need for continued monitoring and stewardship efforts. The disparity in reporting practices among countries, particularly the absence of data from major meat exporters like Brazil, poses challenges to accurate global assessments. The success of countries like the Netherlands in reducing antimicrobial use through comprehensive action plans suggests the potential of such strategies worldwide. Moreover, the economic incentives for countries to adopt practices for reducing AMU, coupled with growing consumer awareness, could drive a shift towards more sustainable and responsible agricultural practices. The study emphasizes the necessity of comprehensive surveillance systems and international cooperation to combat AMR effectively, improve transparency, and promote animal and human health.