Generated Summary
This paper analyzes how current and projected climate change risks are affecting the production and trade of major cereal producers, exporters, and importers in international markets, with a focus on maize, rice, and wheat. The research acknowledges the varying perspectives of climate scientists on the exact impact of climate change, yet it highlights the detrimental effects of warming temperatures and changing rainfall patterns on tropical and subtropical areas. The study reviews climate studies, including the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), revealing climate-related disruptions to cereal production across regions. It advocates for strategies to mitigate risks and support the transition to agroecology. The paper explores the interconnectedness of food production, trade, and climate change, emphasizing the need for a just and green transition to ensure food security and sustainable food systems.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The top 3-5 exporting nations of wheat, rice, and maize dominate world markets; in 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% of maize volumes, 57% of rice, and 45% of wheat.
- Globally, an estimated 37% of harvested major crops are used for domestic food crops.
- About 20% of global calories consumed are provided by food trade.
- About 14% of global food production (valued at USD400 billion per year) is lost post-harvest before being sold, while another 17% of food is wasted during the retail process and by consumers. Food loss and waste also account for between 8-10% of global GHGs.
- It is estimated that by 2050 the global population will grow to about 9.8 billion people.
- Cereals accounted for more than half the world’s harvested area.
- From 2000-20, cereals were the most important contributor to human diet in all regions, with shares ranging from 24% in Oceania to 50% or more in regions, such as Africa and Asia (Figure 1).
- In 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% for maize volumes, 57% for rice and 45% for wheat.
- In 2021, scientists described recent global yield projections as “a fundamental shift compared to crop yield projections from the previous iteration of climate and crop models conducted in 2014.”
- A 2021 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) study found that (subject to regional variations) global maize yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see initial growth of about 17%.
- In 2022, U.S. maize exports to China (the biggest global importer of maize) fell 70% from USD5.21 billion in 2022 to USD1.65 billion in 2023, as Chinese demand shifted to Brazil.
- China was the leading consumer of wheat (148.5 million MT or 18% of global production), followed by India (104.3 million MT or 17% of global production).
- The top 10 wheat exporters account for 94% of global wheat exports.
- Wheat exports were 40% in 2020.
- Maize exports were 39% in 2020.
- Rice exports were 9% in 2020.
- The value of global food exports increased 370% from USD380 billion in 2000 to USD1.42 trillion in 2020.
- For each of the main traded cereals, exports generally originate from a few major producing countries, while imports are more diversely spread. In 2020, the top three exporters accounted for sizeable shares of the total exports: 64% for maize, 57% for rice and 45% for wheat (Figure 5).
Other Important Findings
- The effects of climate change are occurring sooner than initially projected in regions such as Africa, Asia, and Oceania, as evidenced by recurring droughts and flooding.
- Production from rain-fed agriculture in regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Southern Cone of Latin America, is expected to decline due to seasonal water stress.
- Rice production is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and in the long run, wheat will also experience declines, forcing the relocation of production to higher elevation or the farming of alternative crops.
- Concentration in production and exports poses risks of price volatility and supply disruptions due to climate change and anthropogenic challenges.
- A review of climate studies, including the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), reveals climate-related disruptions for cereals production in all regions, subject to variations.
- Production from rain-fed agriculture in regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa (accounting for 95% of the region’s farmland) and the Southern Cone of Latin America, is expected to decline due to seasonal water stress.
- Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce the nutritional quality of wheat, rice, and other major crops, potentially affecting millions of consumers.
- China is focused on intensifying domestic production as well as imports from countries including Brazil to meet domestic demand.
- A study on the impact of recent climate change on maize, rice and wheat in the southeastern U.S., building on several climate assessments and a panel data set on climate variation (temperature, rainfall and crop yields), looked at the period 1980-2020 and found that, overall, climate change in the Southeast U.S. had a marginal effect on wheat yield, but a 1°C (33.8°F) rise in temperature and increased rainfall resulted in increased maize yield by 13% and rice yield by 14.10%.
- The top 10 producing countries account for 80% of global wheat production.
- In 2023, the U.S. became a net food importer for the first time.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges that climate scientists hold divergent views on the exact impact of climate change on factors such as warming temperatures and rainfall.
- The paper does not address agricultural trade policies.
- The paper does not address the role of corporate power in shaping trade outcomes and the existing agriculture market structures.
- The findings and projections regarding climate change impacts are subject to uncertainties inherent in climate models.
- There is a need for more country-specific studies.
- The analysis finds that climate change impacts both increase and decrease production, which changes export-import flows by the same percentage.
Conclusion
The document underscores the significant risks posed by climate change to cereal production and trade, emphasizing the need for adaptation and risk management in the face of increasingly frequent disruptions. It advocates for a transition to agroecological practices to enhance food security and resilience. The study highlights the concentrated nature of cereal production and exports, which exacerbates the vulnerability of the food system to climate and human-made shocks. A key takeaway is the call for transitioning from the current industrialized system of agriculture toward agroecology, which prioritizes the welfare of farmers, consumers, and the environment. The impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, are already evident and are expected to intensify, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. The study emphasizes the importance of increasing domestic and regional cereal production to address food security for net food importers, with examples from China, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria. The study also notes that a transition to agroecological approaches, especially those focused primarily on small-scale agriculture, would have benefits for the climate, food security, and rural livelihoods. The document points out that the reliance on a few cereals to meet food security needs is becoming increasingly risky, particularly with the expected changes in global crop productivity due to climate change. The study supports shifting food systems away from intensive industrial animal agriculture to more climate-resilient systems of agroecological food production. Because production of cereals, dairy, and livestock are also major sources of emissions and climate change, changes in food consumption in line with the International EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health Report are recommended to reduce reliance on and consumption of cereal staples. The analysis concludes that addressing climate risk in agriculture trade should help transition away from the current industrialized system of agriculture production that is extractive and exploitative, and instead, put the well-being of people, producers, workers and end users of crops and products and the planet at its center.