Agriculture, Forestry And Other Land Use Emissions By Sources And Removals By Sinks

Abstract

This report discusses new knowledge on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) activities made available through the new FAOSTAT Emission database. The database is available globally, with country detail, for all agriculture, forestry and land sub-categories available in FAOSTAT and in the Forest Resources Assessment (FRA). GHG emissions are computed from official national activity data and geo- spatial analyses, applying international standard methodologies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to ensure consistency with GHG Inventory processes established under the climate convention. The analysis shows increases in emissions of agriculture (from 4.6 to 5.0 Gt CO₂ eq yr⁻¹ in 1990s and 2000s; 5.3 Gt CO₂ eq yr⁻¹ in 2011), decreases in deforestation rates (from 4.6 to 3.8 Gt CO₂ eq yr⁻¹ in 1990s and 2000s; 3.7 Gt CO₂ eq yr⁻¹ in 2010), and decreases in forest sinks, albeit with a reversal since the mid-2000s (from -2.9 to -1.9 Gt CO2 eq yr⁻¹ in 1990s and 2000s values; -2.1 Gt CO2 eq yr⁻¹ in 2010). At the same time, the data show that GHG intensity of products (i.e., GHG emissions per unit commodity produced) decreased during 1990-2010, but that if no further mitigation measures and technical efficiency improvements are implemented, future emissions may further increase by up to 30% by 2050. Better information on AFOLU emissions is critical in many developing countries, given the potential to identify and fund actions that can usefully bridge national food security, resilience, mitigation and development goals into one coherent package.

Generated Summary

This report presents an analysis of the FAOSTAT Emissions database, focusing on emissions from Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) activities. The research employs a Tier 1 methodology, using IPCC 2006 Guidelines and official national statistics from FAOSTAT and FRA databases. The scope includes global and regional analyses of GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use, with a focus on identifying trends, sources, and the impacts of different practices. The study investigates various sub-sectors within AFOLU, including enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, and land-use changes, and provides insights into the dynamics of emissions at global and regional levels. The projections to 2030 and 2050 are also presented. In summary, this working paper explores the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions within the AFOLU sector. It aims to provide comprehensive data and insights into the sources and sinks of emissions, along with the factors influencing these trends. The research relies on established methodologies and comprehensive datasets to offer a broad perspective on AFOLU emissions and their changes over time. The goal is to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities associated with mitigating climate change in the context of agricultural and land-use practices.

Key Findings & Statistics

In 2011, world total annual GHG emissions from agriculture were 5,335 Mt CO₂ eq, the highest level in history.
Emissions from agriculture increased by 14% between 2001 and 2011, with growth primarily in non-Annex I countries (21%).
Emissions in non-Annex I countries increased by 37% from 1990 to 2011.
In 2011, emissions in Annex I countries climbed up for the first time since 1990, to over 1,280 Mt CO₂ eq, the highest level since 2003.
Asia (44%) and the Americas (26%) contributed most to global emissions, followed by Africa (15%) and Europe (12%) between 2001 and 2011.
The largest mean annual emissions growth rates were in Asia (2.3% yr⁻¹) and Africa (2.0% yr⁻¹), with negative rates in Oceania (-2.0% yr⁻¹).
Enteric Fermentation accounted for 40% of agriculture emissions, followed by manure left on pasture (16%), synthetic fertilizers (13%), and rice cultivation (10%) in 2011.
World total annual GHG emissions from enteric fermentation were 2,071 Mt CO₂ eq in 2011, about 40% of total emissions from agriculture.
From 2001-2011, enteric fermentation increased by 11%, with non-Annex I countries seeing a 19% increase.
The largest average emissions growth rate from enteric fermentation was in Africa (2.7% yr⁻¹), followed by Asia (2.0% yr⁻¹), while Europe had a negative rate (-1.6% yr⁻¹).
Emissions from manure management in 2011 were 361 Mt CO₂ eq.
From 2001-2011, manure management emissions increased by 10%, with a 22% increase in non-Annex I countries and a decrease in Annex I countries (-2%).
Asia and Europe were the largest emitters of manure management, with Africa seeing the largest average growth rate (3.1% yr⁻¹).
In 2011, world total annual GHG emissions from rice cultivation were 522 Mt CO₂ eq.
In 2011, 95% of emissions from rice cultivation came from non-Annex I countries.
From 2001-2011, rice cultivation emissions increased by 8%, with a 9% increase in non-Annex I countries.
Asia was the largest contributor to rice cultivation emissions (89%) in 2011.
In 2011, world total annual emissions from synthetic fertilizers were 725 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing over 70%.
Emissions from synthetic fertilizers increased 37% from 2001-2011, with Asia showing the largest average growth rate (5% yr⁻¹).
In 2011, world total annual GHG emissions from manure applied to soils were 185 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing over 60%.
From 2001-2011, emissions from manure applied to soils increased by 12%, with a 27% increase in non-Annex I countries.
In 2011, world total annual emissions from manure left on pasture were 824 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing over 80%.
From 2001-2011, emissions from manure left on pasture increased by 16%, with a 22% increase in non-Annex I countries.
The Americas (33%) and Asia (31%) were the largest contributors to manure left on pasture.
In 2011, world total annual emissions from crop residues were 197 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing nearly two-thirds.
From 2001-2011, emissions from crop residues increased by 20%, with a 27% increase in non-Annex I countries.
Asia was the largest emitter of crop residues (47%).
In 2010, world total annual GHG emissions from net forest conversion were 3,738 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing over 90%.
From 2001-2010, global emissions from net forest conversion decreased by 3%, with the Americas being the largest contributor (54%).
In 2010, the net sink from forest was -2,050 Mt CO₂ eq, almost 10% higher than the 2001-2010 average.
From 2001-2010, the global forest sink increased by 21%.
In 2011, world total annual emissions from burning biomass were 290 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing nearly two-thirds.
From 2001-2011, emissions from burning biomass increased by over 40%, with Africa being the largest contributor (40%).
In 2010, world total annual GHG emissions from energy use were 785 Mt CO₂ eq, with non-Annex I countries contributing about 70%.
From 2000-2010, energy use emissions increased by 20%, with a 40% increase in non-Annex I countries.
Asia was the largest contributor to energy use emissions (58%).
The GHG intensity of commodities has decreased over the period 1961-2010, with notable reductions in eggs (-57%), rice (-49%), pig meat (-45%), and milk (-38%).
The GHG intensity of other main cereals (wheat, maize) increased over the same period by 45%.

Other Important Findings

Agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 18% by 2030 and 30% by 2050.
The study notes that emissions from synthetic fertilizer use may become the second largest emission source after enteric fermentation.
In terms of regional variations, agricultural emissions in non-Annex I countries are increasing at a faster rate than those in Annex I countries, with some regions showing declines.
The analysis indicates a relationship between the observed decreases in GHG intensity of commodities and productivity increases of land and livestock outputs, which is essential for identifying mitigation strategies.

Limitations Noted in the Document

The study acknowledges that the uncertainty levels in emissions estimates for agriculture are larger than other sectors, ranging from 10-150%.
Estimates related to forestry and other land use activities, especially biomass burning and organic soils degradation, are larger still.
The use of Tier 1 emission factors may generate data with higher uncertainty levels.
The analysis does not include CO₂ emissions or removals from soil carbon management of mineral soils, which are generally a smaller component of total AFOLU emissions.
The study focuses on emissions within the farm gate and does not include full life-cycle assessments.

Conclusion

The study provides a comprehensive overview of GHG emissions within the AFOLU sector, highlighting significant trends and regional variations. A key finding is the continuing increase in agricultural emissions, especially in non-Annex I countries, and the dominance of certain practices like enteric fermentation, which are linked to animal agriculture and GHG emissions. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics for effective climate mitigation strategies. It provides evidence to show that there is an inverse relation between GHG intensity of a commodity product and their productivity across the commodities considered, and this has great importance towards identification of mitigation strategies. One critical point is the contrasting trends between different regions. While Annex I countries show a decrease in emissions from some practices, non-Annex I countries are experiencing significant increases. This underscores the need for tailored strategies that consider regional differences in agricultural practices and land use. Another critical point is that the study highlights that the emissions from synthetic fertilizer application are growing faster than other categories, which underscores the importance of finding more sustainable approaches and should become the second largest emission source after enteric fermentation over the next decade if these increases continue. The challenge for the coming decades is therefore to find effective ways to decouple the observed historical trends, ensuring that further efficiency gains can lead to reduced absolute emissions. The FAOSTAT Emissions database serves as a crucial tool for assessing and reporting GHG emissions and the data are integral part of the upcoming AFOLU emissions analysis of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and thus contribute to the global knowledge base needed for an improved understanding of the role that agriculture, forestry and other land use activities can play under current and future international climate agreements towards limiting dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The implications of the research extend to the development of mitigation strategies. The analysis of GHG intensity in relation to productivity provides valuable insights into identifying practices that can reduce emissions while maintaining or improving agricultural output. However, the authors caution that intensification of production alone may not always lead to lower absolute emissions, underscoring the need for a nuanced approach that considers regional conditions and specific agricultural practices. Overall, the study provides a useful framework for understanding and addressing GHG emissions within the AFOLU sector. The findings emphasize the urgency of implementing effective mitigation strategies, and also emphasize the need for regional differences in agricultural practices, and the importance of ensuring further efficiency gains lead to reduced absolute emissions.

IFFS Team Summary

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
2011 Data – also stats increase from 2001-2011
- P28 – enteric fermentation world total was 2071 Mt CO2 eq
- P30 figure 4-3 Data on Enteric fermentation by animal type, including dairy and non dairy
- P30 Manure emissions of CH4 and NO2 was 361 Mt CO2 eq
- P33 rice cultivation emissions CH4 was 523 Mt CO2 eq, 89% from Asia
P69 Figure 7-2 shows kg of CO2 emissions of commodity per Kg of commodity type and production efficiency over 1961-2010
- shows the that cereals are vastly more efficient
- intensification (factory farming) is main method of decreased CO2/kg of product