Food, Fibre And Other Ecosystem Products

Generated Summary

This document examines the potential for climate change adaptation through the transformation of food systems. The study focuses on strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change within the domains of food, feed, fiber, and other ecosystem products. It emphasizes the importance of a systemic approach, recognizing that climate change affects all dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. The core methodology involves analyzing various interventions, ranging from production methods to supply chain management and policy implications, and assesses them based on their feasibility and effectiveness. The scope extends to global and regional scales, with a particular emphasis on vulnerable groups and ecosystems. The analysis uses the GAMI database. The study is structured to provide a comprehensive overview of current climate change impacts and proposes pathways towards more sustainable and resilient food systems.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Global crop and livestock areas are projected to become increasingly unsuitable under high-emission scenarios, with potential yield reductions of 10% by 2050 under SSP-8.5.
• Climate change will increase the number of people at risk of hunger by mid-century, with estimates ranging from 8 million under SSP1-6.0 to 80 million under SSP3-6.0.
• Studies project that the number of extreme heat stress days for outdoor workers and animals will increase by up to 250 workdays per year by the end of the century in some parts of South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Central and South America.
• One global study estimates a negative effect of anthropogenic warming trends from 1961 to 2017 on crop yields of an average of 5.3% for three staple crops (5.9% for maize, 4.9% for wheat and 4.2% for rice).
• Another study found a yield loss of 4.1% for maize and 4.5% for soybean between 1981 and 2010 relative to the non-warming condition, even with CO2 fertilization effects.
• Human-induced warming trends since 1961 have slowed down the growth of agricultural total factor productivity by 21%.
• One global study using an empirical model estimated the negative effect of anthropogenic warming trends from 1961 to 2017 on crop yields and quality.
• Methane emissions significantly impact crop yields by increasing temperatures as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and surface ozone concentrations as a precursor.
• In aquatic systems, more evidence has accumulated since AR5 on warming-induced shifts (mainly poleward) of species.
• Climate change will make some current food production areas unsuitable (high confidence). Current global crop and livestock areas will increasingly become climatically unsuitable under a high-emission scenario (high confidence) (e.g., 10% by 2050, over 30% by 2100 under SSP-8.5 versus below 8% by 2100 under SSP1-2.6).
• Globally, 10% of the currently suitable area for major crops and livestock is projected to be climatically unsuitable in mid-century and 31-34% by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5.
• Models estimate that the heat stress from projected 3°C warming above baseline (1986–2005) would reduce labor capacity by 30-50% in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, leading to a 5% increase in crop prices.
• Climate change impacts will increase the number of people at risk of hunger, in 2050 ranging from 8 million people under SSP1 to 80 million people under SSP3 scenarios (RCP6.0).
• Globally, 10% of the currently suitable area for major crops and livestock is projected to be climatically unsuitable in mid-century and 31-34% by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5.
• One global study estimates a negative effect of anthropogenic warming trends from 1961 to 2017 on crop yields and quality.
• Methane emissions significantly impact crop yields by increasing temperatures as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and surface ozone concentrations as a precursor.
• In aquatic systems, more evidence has accumulated since AR5 on warming-induced shifts (mainly poleward) of species.

Other Important Findings

• Climate change is already causing regional and species-specific negative impacts on food production, crop yields, and food quality.
• The impacts of climate change are expected to be more severe in tropical regions.
• There is a growing evidence of climate extreme events (Seneviratne et al., 2021), but detection and attribution of food insecurity to anthropogenic climate change is still limited by a lack of long-term data and complexity of food systems.
• Climate change is altering the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events.
• Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods.
• Vulnerable groups such as women, children, low-income households, Indigenous or other minority groups and small-scale producers, are often at higher risk of malnutrition, livelihood loss, rising costs and competition over resources.
• Many autonomous adaptation options have been implemented in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, but on-farm adaptations are insufficient to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2.
• Climate change will lead to increasing costs and management challenges in food production.
• Many of the adaptation practices have multiple benefits.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• Detection and attribution of climate change impacts on the food system is challenging because many non-climate drivers are involved.
• Projecting future climate impacts relies on modeling that combines climate data with data from experimental studies testing how species respond to each climate factor. Experimental results have limitations and can be difficult to scale up.
• There is a need to combine modeling and qualitative approaches more effectively.
• Various adaptation options are currently feasible and effective at reducing climate impacts in different socio-cultural, economic and geographical contexts, but some lack adequate economic or institutional feasibility or information on limits.
• A major challenge is to deal with the complexity of the food system, uncertainty about the effects and ethical challenges.
• The studies project that risks and damages are greater in tropical and arid regions.
• Current modeling approaches are not suited for the assessment of multiple dimensions of adaptation options.
• Most studies do not fully account for responses to pests, diseases, long-term change in soil, and some climate extremes.
• Some adaptation options have low scores for potential maladaptation (medium confidence).

Conclusion

Climate change is significantly impacting the food system through various hazards like heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. These events directly affect production and quality, leading to increased food prices, decreased income for producers, and reduced access to food for vulnerable populations. However, there are also a number of adaptation options that can be implemented throughout the food system including crop diversification, irrigation, management of water resources, adopting climate-resilient breeds, and improvements in storage and transportation. The integration of local and Indigenous knowledge systems with formal science is crucial for improving the effectiveness of adaptation approaches. However, the success of adaptation strategies depends on factors such as stakeholder engagement, governance structures, and financial resources. The adoption of climate-smart agriculture and agroecological practices, alongside policies that address inequities and vulnerabilities, can contribute to enhancing food security and nutrition. Additionally, interventions in supply chain processes (e.g., storage and transport) can play a key role in enhancing food availability. Despite the challenges, the document emphasizes the potential for action and collaboration across sectors and scales. Focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making food systems more sustainable and resilient are vital for building a secure food future.