Abstract
Food systems have the potential to nurture human health and support environmental sustainability; however, they are currently threatening both. Providing a growing global population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global food production of calories has kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume low-quality diets that cause micronutrient deficiencies and contribute to a substantial rise in the incidence of diet-related obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined. Because much of the world’s population is inadequately nourished and many environmental systems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries by food production, a global transformation of the food system is urgently needed. The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system. This Commission brings together 19 Commissioners and 18 coauthors from 16 counties in various fields of human health, agriculture, political sciences, and environmental sustainability to develop global scientific targets based on the best evidence available for healthy diets and sustainable food production. These global targets define a safe operating space for food systems that allow us to assess which diets and food production practices will help ensure that the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement are achieved. We quantitatively describe a universal healthy reference diet to provide a basis for estimating the health and environmental effects of adopting an alternative diet to standard current diets, many of which are high in unhealthy foods. Scientific targets for a healthy reference diet are based on extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns, and health outcomes. This healthy reference diet largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils, includes a low to moderate amount of seafood and poultry, and includes no or a low quantity of red meat, processed meat, added sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables. The global average intake of healthy foods is substantially lower than the reference diet intake, whereas overconsumption of unhealthy foods is increasing. Using several approaches, we found with a high level of certainty that global adoption of the reference dietary pattern would provide major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality. The Commission integrates, with quantification of universal healthy diets, global scientific targets for sustainable food systems, and aims to provide scientific boundaries to reduce environmental degradation caused by food production at all scales. Scientific targets for the safe operating space of food systems were established for six key Earth system processes. Strong evidence indicates that food production is among the largest drivers of global environmental change by contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use, interference with the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and land-system change (and chemical pollution, which is not assessed in this Commission). Food production depends on continued functioning of biophysical systems and processes to regulate and maintain a stable Earth system; therefore, these systems and processes provide a set of globally systemic indicators of sustainable food production. The Commission concludes that quantitative scientific targets constitute universal and scalable planetary boundaries for the food system. However, the uncertainty range for these food boundaries remains high because of the inherent complexity in Earth system dynamics. Diets inextricably link human health and environmental sustainability. The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems are integrated into a common framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so that win-win diets (ie, healthy and environmentally sustainable) can be identified. We propose that this framework is universal for all food cultures and production systems in the world, with a high potential of local adaptation and scalability. Application of this framework to future projections of world development indicates that food systems can provide healthy diets (ie, reference diet) for an estimated global population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to achieve. Within boundaries of food production, the reference diet can be adapted to make meals that are consistent with food cultures and cuisines of all regions of the world. Because food systems are a major driver of poor health and environmental degradation, global efforts are urgently needed to collectively transform diets and food production. An integrative framework combined with scientific targets
Generated Summary
This document is a comprehensive review by the EAT-Lancet Commission, which brings together 19 Commissioners and 18 coauthors from 16 counties, from various fields of human health, agriculture, political sciences, and environmental sustainability. The study’s primary focus is on the interconnectedness of human health and environmental sustainability and the urgent need to transform the global food system. The core methodology involves creating global scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production within a framework of planetary boundaries. The aim is to develop a “safe operating space” for food systems that align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. The study quantitatively describes a universal healthy reference diet and then uses global food system modeling to estimate the health and environmental effects of adopting this diet versus current diets. The research also considers various intervention strategies, including dietary shifts, production practice improvements, and waste reduction to determine how to achieve the scientific targets and stay within safe operating spaces.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The study notes that more than 820 million people globally have insufficient food, and many consume low-quality diets, causing micronutrient deficiencies and diet-related diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.
- The authors estimate that a global adoption of the reference dietary pattern would provide major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality.
- Current dietary trends and projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050 will exacerbate risks to people and the planet.
- Scientific targets for a healthy reference diet are based on extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns, and health outcomes.
- The reference diet largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils and includes a low to moderate amount of seafood and poultry.
- The global average intake of healthy foods is substantially lower than the reference diet intake, while overconsumption of unhealthy foods is increasing.
- The reference diet, when universally adopted, is estimated to reduce total mortality.
- The study suggests that by 2050, the global population could be fed healthy diets while remaining within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult to achieve.
- To transform to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts, including a greater than 50% reduction in global consumption of unhealthy foods, such as red meat and sugar, and a greater than 100% increase in consumption of healthy foods, such as nuts, fruits, vegetables, and legumes.
- Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10.8 to 11.6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19.0–23.6%.
- In 2016, the global diet was far from the reference diet. Consumption of red meat was about 280% of the target, starchy vegetables were 120%, eggs 160%, and poultry 150%.
- To stay within the climate change boundary, global greenhouse gas emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from food production must be kept at or below 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in 2050.
- If current yield trends continue towards diets that are high in animal source foods, then production of grains will change minimally from 2010, and production of beef, pork, and lamb would decrease.
- By food group, the reductions in cropland use for feed crops was, to a large extent, compensated by large increases in cropland use for legumes and nuts.
- The study estimates that adopting the reference diet could avoid about 11.1 million deaths per year in 2030 and reduce premature mortality by 19%.
Other Important Findings
- The current food system threatens both human health and environmental sustainability.
- Food production is a major driver of global environmental change, contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss, and freshwater use.
- The absence of scientific targets has hindered large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system.
- The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems are intertwined with all UN Sustainable Development Goals.
- The Great Food Transformation requires a shift in the global food system, involving stakeholders from consumers to policymakers.
- The reference diet allows for flexibility, with foods and amounts tailored to preferences and cultures.
- Plant-based diets are associated with lower risks of mortality.
- With food production causing major global environmental risks, sustainable food production needs to operate within the safe operating space for food systems at all scales on Earth.
- Transformation to sustainable food production by 2050 will require at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps.
- The scientific targets for healthy diets from sustainable food systems are intertwined with all UN Sustainable Development Goals.
- Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems for everyone will require substantial shifts towards healthy dietary patterns, large reductions in food losses and waste, and major improvements in food production practices.
- Unhealthy and unsustainably produced food poses a global risk to people and the planet.
- Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to people and planet.
- The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production are needed to guide a Great Food Transformation.
- Healthy diets have an appropriate caloric intake and consist of a diversity of plant-based foods, low amounts of animal source foods, unsaturated rather than saturated fats, and small amounts of refined grains, highly processed foods, and added sugars.
- Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts.
- With food production causing major global environmental risks, sustainable food production needs to operate within the safe operating space for food systems at all scales on Earth.
- Transformation to sustainable food production by 2050 will require at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps.
- Diets are a major link between human health and environmental sustainability.
- Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts.
- Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to people and planet.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- Setting boundaries for sustainable food production is challenging due to scientific uncertainty, natural variability, and the interconnectedness of Earth system processes.
- The study acknowledges that the impact of specific food groups on environmental sustainability can be difficult to distinguish and compare.
- The study does not explore various population growth scenarios, limiting the scope of its predictions.
- The authors note that the model focuses mainly on the environmental sustainability of food production and health consequences of final consumption.
- The analysis is based on data primarily from the USA and does not account for all local and regional specificities.
- The authors acknowledge that the optimal quantities of specific food groups are often less clear, making it difficult to make precise recommendations.
- The study’s definition of a healthy diet is based on the evidence from studies, and does not consider food safety.
- The study does not explore various population growth scenarios.
- The study’s analysis is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease database.
- The research recognizes that it is difficult to set precise targets due to the complexity of the Earth system and human biology.
Conclusion
The EAT-Lancet Commission’s work presents a comprehensive framework for transforming food systems to achieve both human health and environmental sustainability. The research provides a clear scientific foundation by setting scientific targets that set ranges of intakes for food groups, such as 100-300 g/day of fruit, in order to ensure human health. This framework integrates dietary choices, food production practices, and waste reduction within a safe operating space, aligned with global sustainability goals. The study’s recommendations are not merely theoretical but offer actionable strategies to guide policy and promote systemic change. The Commission stresses the need for a Great Food Transformation, which will require a substantial global shift toward healthy dietary patterns, reductions in food loss and waste, and improvements in food production. The study emphasizes that this is possible but requires widespread, multi-sector action. A key takeaway is the need for governments, industries, and society to work together to make a healthy diet available to all. The transition demands a reframing at the population and systemic levels, emphasizing the role of stakeholders across the food chain. The Commission highlights that these challenges need to be addressed urgently, as delaying action will increase the risks of not achieving the SDGs and the Paris Agreement targets. The vision for the future is clear: a food system that nourishes both people and the planet, and this requires commitment, collaboration, and the implementation of the scientific targets outlined in this report.
IFFS Team Summary
- 2019 ** Food in the Anthropocene- the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems – main folder – PBD – enviro – EAT Lancet .pdf
- Comprehensive document about nutrition and global environment
- Covers a massive range of topics, and overall recommendation is plant based eating
- good focus on legumes, including soy and peanuts, and whole grains
- also nuts seeds fruit and vegetables
- should recommend fortified soy milk
- “Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10.8–11.6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19.0–23.6%.”
- Dr. Mehta’s concern over recommendations regarding fish
- if existing fish-eaters stick with the suggested 28 g per day, fish populations are and ocean environment is still threatened
- but if non fish-eaters start, in order to meet the Lancet recommendations, then there will be a massive increased burden to the ocean biome
- the same holds true for chicken consumption
- Discusses “Half Earth” preservation concept
- Also covers fertilizer and nutrient cycling and many ecological topics
- Acknowledges food as the the largest ecological impact of humans