Abstract
Food systems have the potential to nurture human health and support environmental sustainability; however, they are currently threatening both. Providing a growing global population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global food production of calories has kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume low-quality diets that cause micronutrient deficiencies and contribute to a substantial rise in the incidence of diet-related obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined. Because much of the world’s population is inadequately nourished and many environmental systems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries by food production, a global transformation of the food system is urgently needed. The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system. This Commission brings together 19 Commissioners and 18 coauthors from 16 counties in various fields of human health, agriculture, political sciences, and environmental sustainability to develop global scientific targets based on the best evidence available for healthy diets and sustainable food production. These global targets define a safe operating space for food systems that allow us to assess which diets and food production practices will help ensure that the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement are achieved. We quantitatively describe a universal healthy reference diet to provide a basis for estimating the health and environmental effects of adopting an alternative diet to standard current diets, many of which are high in unhealthy foods. Scientific targets for a healthy reference diet are based on extensive literature on foods, dietary patterns, and health outcomes. This healthy reference diet largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils, includes a low to moderate amount of seafood and poultry, and includes no or a low quantity of red meat, processed meat, added sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables. The global average intake of healthy foods is substantially lower than the reference diet intake, whereas overconsumption of unhealthy foods is increasing. Using several approaches, we found with a high level of certainty that global adoption of the reference dietary pattern would provide major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality. The Commission integrates, with quantification of universal healthy diets, global scientific targets for sustainable food systems, and aims to provide scientific boundaries to reduce environmental degradation caused by food production at all scales. Scientific targets for the safe operating space of food systems were established for six key Earth system processes. Strong evidence indicates that food production is among the largest drivers of global environmental change by contributing to climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use, interference with the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and land-system change (and chemical pollution, which is not assessed in this Commission). Food production depends on continued functioning of biophysical systems and processes to regulate and maintain a stable Earth system; therefore, these systems and processes provide a set of globally systemic indicators of sustainable food production. The Commission concludes that quantitative scientific targets constitute universal and scalable planetary boundaries for the food system. However, the uncertainty range for these food boundaries remains high because of the inherent complexity in Earth system dynamics. Diets inextricably link human health and environmental sustainability. The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems are integrated into a common framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so that win-win diets (ie, healthy and environmentally sustainable) can be identified. We propose that this framework is universal for all food cultures and production systems in the world, with a high potential of local adaptation and scalability. Application of this framework to future projections of world development indicates that food systems can provide healthy diets (ie, reference diet) for an estimated global population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to achieve. Within boundaries of food production, the reference diet can be adapted to make meals that are consistent with food cultures and cuisines of all regions of the world. Because food systems are a major driver of poor health and environmental degradation, global efforts are urgently needed to collectively transform diets and food production. An integrative framework combined with scientific targets
Generated Summary
The EAT-Lancet Commission’s work provides a comprehensive framework for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems, emphasizing the interplay between human health and environmental sustainability. The study, which is a report, employs a global food systems model to analyze how shifts towards healthy diets, coupled with production and management-related measures, can help meet nutritional needs while staying within environmental boundaries. The research focuses on scientific targets for healthy diets, sustainable food production, and the safe operating space for food systems, with the aim of guiding a “Great Food Transformation.” The methodology involves the quantitative description of a universal healthy reference diet to estimate the health and environmental effects of adopting alternative diets. The scope includes the assessment of environmental effects across multiple variables, particularly greenhouse-gas emissions, cropland use, freshwater use, biodiversity loss, and the application of nitrogen and phosphorus. The study is a call for action to address the impacts of food systems on both human health and the environment, underscoring the urgent need for systemic changes.
Key Findings & Statistics
- More than 820 million people globally have insufficient food.
- Globally, food production accounts for up to 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.
- The global burden of non-communicable diseases is predicted to worsen.
- A shift towards a healthy reference diet, as described in the report, could lead to major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality.
- The adoption of the reference diet could lead to about 11.1 million deaths per year in 2030.
- A 19-23.6% reduction in deaths is likely to be achieved with dietary changes.
- Achieving the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C, is not possible by only decarbonising the global energy system.
- Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to people and the planet.
- Global average per capita energy intake has been estimated as 2370 kcal per day.
- The report recommends an intake of 2500 kcal per day as a basis for different isocaloric dietary scenarios.
- Adequate protein intake for adults is 0.8 g/kg bodyweight, which is 56 g/day for a 70-kg individual.
- Replacing protein from animal sources with protein from plant sources was associated with substantially reduced overall mortality.
- For example, 3% of energy from plant protein instead of processed red meat, and 0.88 (0.84-0.92) from unprocessed red meat.
- A 35 g/day increment of red meat was associated with a significant increase (6%) in risk of type 2 diabetes.
- For the reference diet, an intake of 0 g/day to about 28 g/day of red meat is desirable.
- The scientific target for greenhouse-gas emissions from food production will be achieved on the basis of two fundamental assumptions. First, zero carbon dioxide emissions will be associated with land clearance for food production.
- The total estimate of all greenhouse-gas emissions from food production is 8.5-13.7 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
- The study sets the boundary for greenhouse-gas emissions from food production at or less than 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in 2050.
- The global freshwater planetary boundary is set at 2800 km³/year for all human use including food production.
- The boundary for food production is between 1000-4000 km³/year.
- For nitrogen, the application boundary is set at 90 Tg of nitrogen per year with an uncertainty range of 65–90.
- The planetary boundary for phosphorus application from food production to be 8 Tg of phosphorus per year (uncertainty range 6-12).
- Current extinction rates and population declines are higher than those in the Holocene of about one extinction per million species per year.
- The scientific target is less than ten extinctions per million species per year.
- The global land use from food production should be kept at or below 13 M km² (11-15 M km²).
- Production of grains would change minimally from 2010, and production of beef, pork, and lamb would decrease.
- Production of sugar, milk, poultry, and eggs would change minimally, and production of fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, soybeans, oil crops, and fish would increase substantially.
- Changes in food production practices could reduce agricultural greenhouse-gas emissions in 2050 by about 10%, whereas increased consumption of plant-based diets could reduce emissions by up to 80%.
- The report provides estimates of 11.1 million premature deaths among adults by global adoption of the reference diet.
Other Important Findings
- The study introduces a safe operating space framework to define scientific targets for human health and environmental sustainability, which can be adapted to various food cultures and production systems worldwide.
- The reference diet consists largely of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils and includes a low to moderate amount of seafood and poultry, with no or low quantities of red meat, processed meat, added sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables.
- The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the global food system.
- The research highlights the need for a Great Food Transformation involving actors across the food system, and emphasizes that such a transformation can be achieved by implementing five key strategies.
- The study emphasizes the importance of reorienting agricultural priorities from producing high quantities of food to producing healthy food.
- The report also recommends sustainably intensifying food production to increase high-quality output and to govern land and oceans.
- The study points out that the largest cause of global environmental change is food production.
- The importance of a shift towards plant-based diets is highlighted.
- The need for international and national commitment to shift towards healthy diets is discussed.
- There’s an emphasis on making healthy diets from sustainable food systems affordable.
- The study calls for a focus on education on healthy diets.
- The need to reorient agricultural priorities from producing large quantities of food to producing healthy food.
- Food systems are a major driver of poor health and environmental degradation, necessitating global efforts to collectively transform diets and food production.
- Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems for everyone will require substantial shifts towards healthy dietary patterns, large reductions in food losses and waste, and major improvements in food production practices.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges methodological inconsistencies and data gaps, particularly in distinguishing and comparing the precise environmental footprints of individual food products.
- The environmental effects of foods can be measured with various units (kcal, per g protein, per serving), and using a universal indicator to measure environmental effect can be misleading for some foods.
- The impact of the reference diet is estimated, based on assumptions.
- The study acknowledges the limitations of focusing on only two endpoints of the global food system: final consumption (healthy diets) and production (sustainable food production).
- The research notes that the Great Food Transformation is uncharted policy territory.
- Uncertainty exists around detailed quantifications, particularly when assessing the impact of diet on premature mortality.
- For the global food system, clear scientific targets do not exist, making the process of guiding policy makers and businesses difficult.
Conclusion
This research offers a comprehensive roadmap for a Great Food Transformation by setting scientific targets for both healthy diets and sustainable food production, within a safe operating space. The core message is that food systems currently threaten both human health and environmental sustainability, necessitating urgent and substantial changes. The research emphasizes the need for a shift toward plant-based diets, a reduction in food loss and waste, and improvements in food production practices. A key aspect of this study is the recognition of the interconnectedness of human health and environmental sustainability, and the need for an integrated approach to these challenges. The framework is designed to be universally applicable, while allowing for local adaptations. The need for significant shifts towards healthy dietary patterns is emphasized. The Great Food Transformation is not only feasible, but essential, and data from the study is strong enough to warrant immediate action. The study calls for international and national commitment to shift towards healthy diets and reorient agricultural priorities. The study notes that by incorporating this reference diet, many of the world’s current problems can be solved. The research underscores the need for strong governance, effective policies, and community involvement to achieve the goals set forth by the study. This transformation requires a coordinated effort involving all stakeholders, from individual consumers to policy makers, across the entire food supply chain. The study urges a swift transition towards healthy diets and sustainable food production, arguing that this can lead to significant improvements in human health, environmental sustainability, and global food security. This is the Great Food Transformation. The analysis is clear that for change to happen, this requires a concerted effort that includes changes in individual behavior, policy adjustments, and global cooperation. The authors emphasize that to effectively tackle climate change, biodiversity loss, and other related problems, global food systems must be transformed. The researchers have indicated that the need to act is now and delay will increase the severity of the consequences.
IFFS Team Summary
- 2019 ** Food in the Anthropocene- the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems – main folder – PBD – enviro – EAT Lancet .pdf
- Comprehensive document about nutrition and global environment
- Covers a massive range of topics, and overall recommendation is plant based eating
- good focus on legumes, including soy and peanuts, and whole grains
- also nuts seeds fruit and vegetables
- should recommend fortified soy milk
- “Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10.8–11.6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19.0–23.6%.”
- Dr. Mehta’s concern over recommendations regarding fish
- if existing fish-eaters stick with the suggested 28 g per day, fish populations are and ocean environment is still threatened
- but if non fish-eaters start, in order to meet the Lancet recommendations, then there will be a massive increased burden to the ocean biome
- the same holds true for chicken consumption
- Discusses “Half Earth” preservation concept
- Also covers fertilizer and nutrient cycling and many ecological topics
- Acknowledges food as the the largest ecological impact of humans