Abstract
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg·kg−1, 148 mg·kg−1, and 172 mg·kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.
Generated Summary
This study investigates the global trends in antimicrobial use within food animal production. Employing Bayesian statistical models, the researchers combined livestock density maps, economic projections of meat demand, and existing antimicrobial consumption estimates from high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. The research aims to address the lack of quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption in livestock and to project future trends. The methodology involves estimating antimicrobial consumption per kilogram of animal produced, followed by the projection of global consumption trends based on livestock production forecasts. The scope of the study encompasses 228 countries, providing a global perspective on the issue. The study also discusses the implications of increased antimicrobial resistance on animal and human health and the need for interventions to mitigate the risks associated with excessive antimicrobial use.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was estimated to be 45 mg·kg−1, 148 mg·kg−1, and 172 mg·kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively.
- Between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials is projected to increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons.
- Up to a third of the increase in antimicrobial consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is attributed to shifting production practices in middle-income countries.
- The increase in antimicrobial consumption in livestock will be 99% in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries.
- In 2010, the five countries with the largest shares of global antimicrobial consumption in food animal production were China (23%), the United States (13%), Brazil (9%), India (3%), and Germany (3%).
- By 2030, the ranking is projected to be China (30%), the United States (10%), Brazil (8%), India (4%), and Mexico (2%).
- Among the 50 countries with the largest amounts of antimicrobials used in livestock in 2010, the five countries with the greatest projected percentage increases in antimicrobial consumption by 2030 are likely to be Myanmar (205%), Indonesia (202%), Nigeria (163%), Peru (160%), and Vietnam (157%).
- The global consumption of antimicrobials in food animal production was estimated at 63,151 (±1,560) tons in 2010.
- By 2030, antimicrobial consumption in Asia is projected to be 51,851 tons, representing 82% of the current global antimicrobial consumption in food animals in 2010.
- In Asia, antimicrobial consumption in chicken and pigs is expected to grow by 129% and 124%, respectively, by 2030.
- The total acreage of areas where antimicrobial consumption is currently greater than 30 kg·km−2 will grow by 4% for pork and 143% for chicken.
- The compound annual growth rate of antimicrobial consumption in food animals is 2.60%, nearly three times the projected annual growth rate of the human population (0.98%) from 2010 to 2030.
- In 2010, China was the largest antimicrobial consumer for livestock, and its livestock industry will use up to 30% of the global antimicrobial production by 2030.
Other Important Findings
- Antimicrobials are widely used in livestock for disease prevention and growth promotion.
- Widespread use of antimicrobials in livestock contributes to the emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (ARBs).
- ARBs of animal origin can be transmitted to humans through the environment, food products, and agricultural workers.
- A close association exists between the prevalence of livestock-associated ARBs in animals and humans and between the levels of antimicrobial use in animals and the prevalence of ARBs.
- In low- and middle-income countries, rising incomes drive an unprecedented growth in demand for animal protein.
- Countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are shifting towards intensive livestock production systems, increasing antimicrobial consumption.
- Multiresistant ARBs have been isolated in food animals in BRICS countries and throughout the developing world.
- Antimicrobial consumption displayed important geographic heterogeneity across continents, with hotspots in South and Southeast Asia, the Americas, and Africa.
- The use of antimicrobials as growth promoters is closely linked to the challenges of the nutritional transition to animal protein-based diets and the rise of antimicrobial resistance.
- The study provides a baseline estimate of the global importance of antimicrobial consumption and identifies regions at higher risk of emergence of drug-resistant pathogens.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- Data on antimicrobial use in livestock are scarce, and the study relied on estimates from only 32 high-income countries, which were then extrapolated to other countries.
- The modeling strategy assumes that intensive farming operations use similar quantities of antimicrobials across high-, middle-, and low-income countries, which might not be entirely accurate.
- The study does not evaluate antimicrobial consumption on a compound-specific basis due to missing information.
- The total volume figures do not account for choices of drugs, potential differences in drug potencies, resistance selection pressures, or use for treatment in human medicine.
- Estimates of antibiotic consumption in 2010 may thus represent an overestimation of the current consumption levels.
- The study did not include the role of aquaculture in antimicrobial consumption.
Conclusion
The research highlights the increasing global trend of antimicrobial consumption in food animals, with a projected 67% rise by 2030, driven significantly by the growing demand for meat in middle- and low-income countries. This surge in consumption poses a substantial risk to public health, given its link to antimicrobial resistance and the potential for ARBs to spread to humans. The study emphasizes the need for urgent and concerted action to limit the overuse and misuse of antimicrobials. The findings indicate that China and India are projected to be major contributors to the increase in antimicrobial consumption. The study underscores the need for a publicly funded international surveillance network to monitor antimicrobial consumption, collaboration with veterinary drug manufacturers and feed producers, the implementation of international regulatory frameworks, and the phasing out of antimicrobial use for growth promotion. The economic and biological evidence challenging the benefits of antimicrobial use in food animal production should be considered. The geographical patterns of antimicrobial consumption reveal hotspots in Asia, the Americas, and Africa, indicating regions at higher risk for the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens. The study’s findings call for policies that promote responsible antimicrobial use in the livestock sector to preserve antibiotic effectiveness and ensure global food security. The projected increase in antimicrobial consumption underscores the need for policy interventions, including limiting antimicrobial use in food animal production to preserve antibiotic effectiveness and ensure food security.