Abstract
Strong and rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, far beyond those currently committed to, are required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This allows no sector to maintain business as usual practices, while application of the precautionary principle requires avoiding a reliance on negative emission technologies. Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions. Unabated, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030. Inaction in the livestock sector would require substantial GHG reductions, far beyond what are planned or realistic, from other sectors. This outlook article outlines why animal to plant-sourced protein shifts should be taken up by the Conference of the Parties (COP), and how they could feature as part of countries’ mitigation commitments under their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be adopted from 2020 onwards. The proposed framework includes an acknowledgment of ‘peak livestock’, followed by targets for large and rapid reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. Adequate support, including climate finance, is needed to facilitate countries in implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.
Generated Summary
This outlook article proposes a three-step strategy for including animal to plant protein shifts in climate change mitigation policy. It emphasizes the need for substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, highlighting the potential of animal to plant-sourced protein shifts in achieving these reductions. The study examines how these shifts can be incorporated into countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and suggests a framework acknowledging ‘peak livestock’, followed by targets for reducing livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. This involves recognizing the significant contribution of the livestock sector to global GHG emissions and methane dominance, making animal to plant protein shifts a necessary component of meeting the Paris temperature goals. The methodology used in the article includes an analysis of the livestock sector’s impact on climate change and proposing policy recommendations for mitigation. It is a policy paper with clear policy insights and recommendations.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030 if no action is taken.
Other Important Findings
- Animal to plant protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions.
- Inaction in the livestock sector would require substantial GHG reductions from other sectors.
- COP 24 presents an opportunity to bring animal to plant protein shifts to the climate mitigation table.
- Revised NDCs from 2020 should include animal to plant protein shifts, starting with a declaration of ‘peak livestock’, followed by a ‘worst first’ replacement approach, guided by ‘best available food’.
- Failure to implement animal to plant protein shifts increases the risk of exceeding temperate goals and increases reliance on negative emissions technologies.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The article is an outlook article, and as such, does not present empirical research. It does not provide data to assess any real world cases.
- The framework is proposed but not tested or implemented in any practical setting.
- The article relies on the assumption that all sectors must contribute to GHG emission reductions.
Conclusion
The article emphasizes the critical role of including animal to plant protein shifts in climate change mitigation policy, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By advocating for a three-step strategy, it calls for a shift from current practices and suggests the importance of addressing the livestock sector’s contribution to GHG emissions. The key policy insights highlight the need for immediate action, suggesting that without interventions, the livestock sector could consume a significant portion of the GHG budget. The approach emphasizes the need to avoid reliance on negative emission technologies and supports the concept of animal to plant-sourced protein shifts. The document proposes that COP 24 can be an opportunity to highlight these shifts and that revised NDCs should incorporate them starting in 2020. The framework includes a strategic roadmap starting with ‘peak livestock’, setting targets for large and rapid reductions, and being guided by the ‘best available food’ approach. The conclusions stress the need for adequate support, including climate finance, to facilitate the shift to plant-sourced protein.
IFFS Team Summary
- https://tinyurl.com/y6q8pwd3 for PDF
- Excellent paper gives an overview of
- the CO2 equivalents from different sectors of animal agriculture sectors/products on a global scale
- the projected growth of these emissions, and their share of the GHG budget for climate mitigation
- the subsequent need for substitution by plant proteins to create sharp reductions
- amount of global protein and calories that are lost though feeding plant foods to animals
- Beans have 46 x less CO2 equivalent emissions compared to beef
- Prioritizes beef, then other animal products, for most rapid reduction in GHG from foods
- Health benefits of plant foods are noted