Abstract
Strong and rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, far beyond those currently committed to, are required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This allows no sector to maintain business as usual practices, while application of the precautionary principle requires avoiding a reliance on negative emission technologies. Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions. Unabated, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030. Inaction in the livestock sector would require substantial GHG reductions, far beyond what are planned or realistic, from other sectors. This outlook article outlines why animal to plant-sourced protein shifts should be taken up by the Conference of the Parties (COP), and how they could feature as part of countries’ mitigation commitments under their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be adopted from 2020 onwards. The proposed framework includes an acknowledgment of ‘peak livestock’, followed by targets for large and rapid reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. Adequate support, including climate finance, is needed to facilitate countries in implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.
Generated Summary
This outlook article proposes a three-step strategy to include animal to plant protein shifts in climate change mitigation policy. The study emphasizes the necessity of strong and rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, highlighting the significant potential of shifting from animal to plant-sourced proteins. The research outlines the livestock sector’s substantial contribution to global GHG emissions and argues that inaction in this sector would require drastic reductions from other sectors, making the achievement of climate goals more challenging. The proposed framework includes an acknowledgment of ‘peak livestock,’ followed by targets for reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. The article also discusses the co-benefits of such shifts, including benefits for biodiversity and human health.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The livestock sector is estimated to account for at least 23% of total warming in 2010.
- Without action, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030.
- The livestock sector is responsible for around 24% of today’s positive radiative forcing.
- Methane (CH4) is responsible for around 24% of today’s positive radiative forcing.
- CH4 is slightly more abundant than carbon dioxide (CO2) due to its relatively potent short-term warming impact (85 times greater Global Warming Potential than CO2 over a 20 year time frame).
- Agriculture is a prime option for GHG mitigation, accounting for 24% of total GHG emissions.
- GHG emissions from agriculture are dominated by livestock.
- CH4 emissions from the livestock sector are expected to increase by 60% by 2030.
- Forecast growth in production across the entire livestock sector of 70% by 2050.
- The livestock sector is estimated to account for at least 23% of total warming in 2010.
- The livestock sector is estimated to account for at least 16.5% of global GHG emissions.
- Technological and management improvements could reduce livestock emissions by around a third, but these benefits are being outpaced by increased demand for livestock products, with only around 10% of the potential livestock-related technical GHG mitigation being viable.
- Without mitigation action, by 2030, the livestock sector could account for 27% to 49% of the emissions budget (19-34 billion metric tons CO₂e) associated with a >66% chance of achieving the 1.5°C target.
- The global livestock population is at an all-time high of 28 billion animals, dominated by chickens which account for 82%.
- Over the past 20 years, the farmed chicken population has risen from 14 billion to 23 billion animals.
- Cattle have increased from 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion animals, sheep have increased from 1 billion to 1.2 billion animals, ducks from 0.9 billion to 1.2 billion animals, goats from 0.7 billion to 1 billion animals, and pigs from 0.8 billion to 1 billion animals.
- Beans which produce 46 times less GHGs in comparison to beef, on a protein equivalent basis.
- Globally, 77% of agricultural land is used for animal agriculture, which in turn provides 17% of calories and 33% of protein for global consumption.
- Crops grown for human consumption use 23% of agricultural land in exchange for 83% of calories and 67% of protein for global consumption.
- A third of all calories produced are fed to animals with only 12% of those calories returning as livestock products such as meat and milk – a loss of 29% of all calories produced globally.
- To deliver 1 calorie of beef to the food system requires 37 calories of plants, 1 calorie of pork requires 12 calories of plants, 1 calorie of chicken requires 9 plant calories, 1 calorie of eggs and 1 calorie of dairy each require 6 plant calories.
Other Important Findings
- Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions.
- Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts make a necessary contribution to meeting the Paris temperature goals and reducing warming in the short term, while providing a suite of co-benefits.
- COP 24 is an opportunity to bring animal to plant protein shifts to the climate mitigation table.
- Revised NDCs from 2020 should include animal to plant protein shifts, starting with a declaration of ‘peak livestock’, followed by a ‘worst first’ replacement approach, guided by ‘best available food’.
- Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts can deliver numerous co-benefits to biodiversity and human health, in addition to financial cost savings through reduced health care requirements.
- Early mitigation reduces the financial costs of implementation, in comparison to delaying action to the long term.
- The first step for policymakers in terms of making commitments for GHG emission reductions from livestock is to acknowledge ‘peak’ livestock, meaning that the current numbers are at their peak and will henceforth decline.
- The proposed three-step strategy for including animal to plant-sourced protein shifts in climate policy begins with an acknowledgment of peak livestock, closely followed by large and rapid reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach, replacing the highest emitting foods with alternatives that provide maximum environmental and health benefits.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges the challenge of relying on negative emission technologies (NETs) for achieving the Paris Agreement goals due to their land requirements, competition for water resources, unproven nature, and the risk of reversal.
- The article notes the long lock-in period associated with technology change in the fossil fuel sector, which poses a challenge for the agricultural sector’s emissions reductions.
- The study emphasizes the need for adequate support, including climate finance, to facilitate countries in implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.
- The study does not provide a detailed transition plan or specific policy measures for implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.
Conclusion
The article strongly advocates for the integration of animal to plant-sourced protein shifts into climate policy as a crucial step towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The current trajectory of GHG emissions, particularly from the livestock sector, poses a significant threat to these goals. The authors emphasize that the transition should start immediately, with a focus on reducing the highest-emitting foods first, guided by a ‘best available food’ approach. Key to this shift is recognizing that the global livestock population has peaked and should now decline. The proposed strategy, starting with ‘peak livestock’, then employing a ‘worst first’ replacement approach guided by ‘best available food’, offers a science-backed method for achieving large and rapid GHG reductions while delivering co-benefits such as improved biodiversity, food security, and public health. The article underscores the need for comprehensive support, including financial incentives and education, to facilitate this transition and highlights the opportunities for policy makers to create joined-up policy making across multiple SDGs, integrating climate, health, and environmental policies. The conclusion points to the necessity of action within the next decade to bring emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
IFFS Team Summary
- https://tinyurl.com/y6q8pwd3 for PDF
- Excellent paper gives an overview of
- the CO2 equivalents from different sectors of animal agriculture sectors/products on a global scale
- the projected growth of these emissions, and their share of the GHG budget for climate mitigation
- the subsequent need for substitution by plant proteins to create sharp reductions
- amount of global protein and calories that are lost though feeding plant foods to animals
- Beans have 46 x less CO2 equivalent emissions compared to beef
- Prioritizes beef, then other animal products, for most rapid reduction in GHG from foods
- Health benefits of plant foods are noted