Abstract
The observation of individuals attaining remarkable ages, and their concentration into geographic sub-regions or ‘blue zones’, has generated considerable scientific interest. Proposed drivers of remarkable longevity include high vegetable intake, strong social connections, and genetic markers. Here, we reveal new predictors of remarkable longevity and ‘supercentenarian’ status. In the United States, supercentenarian status is predicted by the absence of vital registration. The state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records. In Italy, England, and France, which have more uniform vital registration, remarkable longevity is instead predicted by poverty, low per capita incomes, shorter life expectancy, higher crime rates, worse health, higher deprivation, fewer 90+ year olds, and residence in remote, overseas, and colonial territories. In England and France, higher old-age poverty rates alone predict more than half of the regional variation in attaining a remarkable age. Only 18% of ‘exhaustively validated supercentenarians have a birth certificate, falling to zero percent in the USA, and supercentenarian birthdates are concentrated on days divisible by five: a pattern indicative of widespread fraud and error. Finally, the designated ‘blue zones’ of Sardinia, Okinawa, and Ikaria corresponded to regions with low incomes, low literacy, high crime rate and short life expectancy relative to their national average. As such, relative poverty and short lifespan constitute unexpected predictors of centenarian and supercentenarian status and support a primary role of fraud and error in generating remarkable human age records.
Generated Summary
This research investigates the reliability of extreme-age records, specifically focusing on supercentenarians and the patterns of error and fraud in demographic data. The study examines factors such as vital registration, socioeconomic indicators, and birthdate distributions to assess the validity of claims regarding exceptional longevity. The research employs statistical analysis, including mixed-effects models, to analyze regional distributions, and links to socioeconomic factors across various countries like the USA, France, Japan, England, and Italy. The central question is whether the documented patterns of supercentenarian status are genuine reflections of extended lifespans or artifacts of data errors and biases, especially in the context of the ‘Blue Zones.’ The methods include the use of databases like the GRG and IDL, combined with geographical, statistical, and historical data to scrutinize the claims of exceptional longevity.
Key Findings & Statistics
- In the United States, the introduction of birth certificates was associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records.
- Only 18% of ‘exhaustively validated’ supercentenarians have a birth certificate.
- Birthdates of supercentenarians are concentrated on days divisible by five, indicative of fraud and error.
- Historical error rates in the USA ranged from 17% to 66%.
- In Italy, England, and France, remarkable longevity is predicted by poverty, low per capita incomes, shorter life expectancy, higher crime rates, worse health, and higher deprivation.
- In England and France, higher old-age poverty rates alone predict more than half of the regional variation in attaining a remarkable age.
- The study notes that, the 40-year-old ‘young liar’ errors will have over double the annual survival rate of the (error-free) 50-year-old population.
- Across the USA, France, Japan, England, and Italy, the study finds that remarkable age attainment is predicted by indicators of error and fraud, including illiteracy, poverty, high crime rates, and the absence of birth certificates.
- The number of supercentenarians in the USA falls dramatically after birth certificates achieve state-wide coverage.
- The province of Medio Campidano in Italy ranked second for supercentenarians, third for SSCs, and fourth for centenarians per capita, yet also had the second-lowest employment rate and the single lowest GDP per capita.
- In France, the departments of Guadeloupe and Martinique have a 6.5-fold over-representation of supercentenarians.
- Across England, Tower Hamlets has the highest poverty rate, highest child poverty rate, highest income inequality, and shortest disability-free life expectancy, but the largest percentage of SSCs.
- The number of SSCs per capita is highest in regions where people are more deprived overall (r = 0.28; p = 0.001), people over age 60 are more income-deprived (r = 0.42; p < 0.000001), multidimensional health indices are worse (r = 0.23; p = 0.01), and crime rates are higher (r = 0.22; p = 0.01).
- For instance, the number of centenarians in Japan is negatively correlated with income per capita (r = -0.44, p=0.001), and the Japanese financial strength index (r = -0.70; p = 3e-08) across all 47 Japanese prefectures.
- The number of supercentenarians born on the first day of the month is 150% higher than the previous day.
Other Important Findings
- The study indicates that extreme old-age data is often dominated by age-coding errors.
- The ‘Blue Zones’ of Sardinia, Okinawa, and Ikaria correspond to regions with low incomes, low literacy, high crime rates, and short life expectancy relative to their national average.
- In the USA, the study reveals that state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a significant drop in the number of supercentenarian records.
- The concentration of remarkable-aged individuals within geographic regions or ‘blue zones’ has generated considerable scientific interest.
- The study suggests that the observed patterns in extreme-age records may be due to data errors, fraud, and biases rather than actual longevity.
- The presence of multiple official ages, inaccurate birth certificates, and discrepancies in death records further question the validity of extreme-age data.
- Claims of exceptional longevity are often contradicted by data showing unremarkable average lifespans, and historical examples of fraudulent cases.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges limitations in model construction and accuracy, particularly in per capita adjustments.
- The study’s analysis of French supercentenarians is constrained by the insufficient granularity of birth cohorts and the rearrangement of geographic units.
- The use of modern population sizes to estimate per capita rates in France and England introduces uncertainty due to the lack of historical population data.
- The study’s analysis of French supercentenarians is complicated by large-scale historical changes in province numbers and boundaries.
- The study’s analysis depends on the assumption that the data in question is accurate, which may not be true.
- The study does not examine the impact of diet or lifestyle on longevity directly.
- The study relies on data from external sources, and the accuracy of the results is dependent on the accuracy of the data.
Conclusion
The research concludes that the patterns of supercentenarian records are more likely a result of error and fraud than a reflection of exceptional human longevity. This is based on the observation of correlations between extreme ages and factors indicative of data errors, such as the absence of vital registration, poverty, illiteracy, and high crime rates. The study challenges the existing research on extreme ages by questioning the validity of the underlying data, highlighting the need for a critical re-evaluation of this field. The study emphasizes the importance of rigorous data validation and the need to consider the impact of fraud and error in any future analysis of extreme-age records. This, in turn, supports the suggestion that many records are likely not accurate. This is not a case against genuine longevity, but against the idea that these records can be taken at face value. The study underscores the importance of accurate data in demographic research, and the need to develop and implement new methods to assess extreme ages. Moreover, the study brings to light that the demographic community should respond to evidence of these types of errors and fraud and should take the matter seriously to advance the field. It also suggests the potential of a more transparent and critical approach to the subject and data, with a shift in methodology to the biometric measurement of age being crucial. The implications call for a comprehensive review of existing research, with an eye to detecting these and other errors in the data. If these fundamental questions are not answered, a vital field of study will likely flounder.