Sustainable Transformation Pathways Of Chinese Food System For The Environment, Public Health And Inclusion

Generated Summary

This study employs a model-based approach to investigate the sustainable transformation pathways of the Chinese food system, focusing on the environmental, public health, and inclusionary aspects. Using the Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE), the research incorporates China’s existing policies and explores potential scenarios to quantify their impacts. The analysis centers on understanding the co-benefits and trade-offs among environmental protection, public health, and economic considerations within the context of China’s food system. The study examines the implications of various policy interventions, including dietary changes, nitrogen management, and water resource management, to identify pathways toward sustainable development. The core of the methodology involves simulating different scenarios that integrate various policy measures, assessing their effects on key indicators such as health outcomes, environmental quality, and economic factors, particularly examining the synergies and trade-offs among these areas. The aim is to provide evidence for policymakers to inform strategies for a sustainable food system.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Nitrogen Fertilizer Use: China’s average N fertilizer intensity in 2015 was 226.0 kg/ha, 3.3 times higher than the global level. In contrast, the N use efficiency is half that of the global average, only reaching 0.25 in 2010.
• Water Resources: China faces severe water scarcity, with one-third of its provinces experiencing water scarcity, with per capita water resources falling below the internationally recognized threshold. The country-wise water cap should be controlled within 635 billion cubic meters by 2015, 670 billion cubic meters by 2020, and 700 billion cubic meters by 2035. The water consumption per 10,000 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) of industrial added value in 2020 should be reduced by 23% compared to 2015 and should be reduced by 16% by 2025 compared to 2020.
• GHG Emissions: The agricultural sector contributes to approximately 40% and 60% of the overall CH4 and N2O emissions, respectively.
• Dietary Changes and Food Waste: Approximately 349 Mt of annually produced food for human consumption is lost or wasted, 17% of which is attributed to the consumption stage.
• Public Health: The prevalence of underweight and obesity is selected as key health indicators. In the BASESSP2 scenario, the underweight population decreases from approximately 43 million in 2020 to 25 million in 2050, whereas the obese population increases from 133 million to 202 million between 2020 and 2050.
• Environmental Indicators: In the BASESSP2 scenario, BII increases slightly from 73.9 in 2020 to 74.3 in 2050. In the FSTSDP_China scenario, BII increases to 75.5 by 2050.
• Inclusion: In the BASESSP2 scenario, the food expenditure per capita in China is 702 USD per year in 2020 and grows slightly to 757 USD per year by 2050. The agricultural wage index in the BASESSP2 scenario in 2050 is 2.86 times higher than that in 2020.
• Scenario Comparison: Compared to the BASESSP2 scenario, the FSTSDP_China scenario performs considerably better with respect to all indicators, except agricultural employment.
• Agricultural Employment: In the BASESSP2 scenario, agricultural employment will reduce by 93 million in 2050, relative to that in 2020, and a further reduction (15 million) can be achieved in 2050 under the FSTSDP_China scenario.
• Impact on N fertilizer use: Considering the ambitious SNUpE and GHG pricing, N fertilizer use amounts in the FSTSDP_China scenario show sharp declines. N fertilizer use starts plummeting in 2015 and can be further reduced by 5.5 and 9 Mt N by 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the BASESSP2 scenario.
• Impact on N surplus: Regarding the three bundle scenarios, compared with BASESSP2, N surplus can decrease by 10.3 Mt N in 2050 in the SustEnvironment scenario, and it will decrease by 8.6 Mt N in the Diets scenario.
• Impact on N pollution: During 2020–2050, the cumulative N2O, NH3-N, NO2-N, and NO3-N emissions in BASEssp2 amounts to 10.8 Gt CO2eq, 227.1 Mt N, 7.4 Mt N, and 365.6 Mt N, respectively. Relative to the BASESSP2 scenario, the cumulative N2O emissions can be reduced by 49.1% in the FSTSDP_China scenario, respectively, from 2020 to 2050. Similarly, the cumulative NH3-N, NO2-N, and NO3-N emissions can be reduced by 52.1%, 54.1%, and 50.1%, respectively.
• Impact on Labor Productivity: FSTSDP_China exhibits a higher labor productivity growth (402.4%) than the BASESSP2 (206%).

Other Important Findings

• The FSTSDP_China scenario incorporates China’s specific efforts toward healthy diets, N management, and water management. For diets and food demand, a convergent transition is implemented from 2020 to 2050, aligning exogenous intake targets specified by the Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG).
• The shift to diets with increased consumption of plant-sourced food leads to GHG mitigation in the AFOLU sector.
• The scenario targeting dietary change demonstrates the highest level of synergies. Progressing towards diets that closely adhere to the CDG synergistically improves nutritional and health outcomes, contributes to poverty reduction, and yields positive effects on the environmental dimension.
• Due to the implementation of the CDG diet, China can achieve a large reduction in premature mortality by 2050 in the Diets scenario.
• Stricter biodiversity and land protection policies and penalty rules for excessive crop rotation hinder crop diversification.
• Violation of water environmental flow remains a struggle for China under the BASESSP2 scenario. However, the excessive water demand drops to 0 by 2050 in the SustEnvironment and FSTSDP_China scenarios.
• Agricultural employment will reduce by 93 million in 2050 relative to that in 2020 in the BASESSP2 scenario, with a further reduction of 15 million in the FSTSDP_China.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The study acknowledges the potential for a dilemma due to the outflow of agricultural employment, even in the most optimistic transformation pathway, highlighting the need to address the labor transfer issue.
• The research focuses on a model-based approach, which, while providing valuable insights, is subject to the limitations inherent in the models and the assumptions used.
• The study recognizes that the current framework does not capture all policy measures concerning food system transformation in China, suggesting that further research should integrate more policies.
• The analysis indicates that the implementation of the CDG diet, while beneficial for health, could lead to a large reduction in agricultural employment, necessitating a thorough study of the associated implications.

Conclusion

The research underscores that China can achieve positive outcomes for health and the environment by adopting a comprehensive food system transformation pathway. The study suggests that correcting fertilizer price distortions and repurposing agricultural subsidies to enhance the Soil Nitrogen Uptake Efficiency (SNUpE) could be effective strategies for sustainable agricultural development. The findings highlight the importance of productivity growth and expanded agricultural R&D investments, as well as dietary pattern changes, to create synergies between environmental and inclusionary goals. However, the analysis also points to potential trade-offs, particularly in agricultural employment, which may decrease despite the overall benefits of the transformation. The study indicates that to mitigate negative impacts and ensure a just transition, additional policy measures are needed. These measures should aim at reallocating surplus labor and guaranteeing public services such as healthcare and education. The development of a social safety net is essential to support the Chinese food system’s shift towards health and sustainability. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that achieving an environment-positive food system in China requires a parallel effort in agricultural R&D, along with stricter environmental regulations, conservation of natural vegetation, and investments in afforestation and reforestation. The research concludes that an integrated approach, combining various policies and measures, is necessary for the design and implementation of effective and sustainable food system transformations.