‘the Data On Extreme Human Ageing Is Rotten From The Inside Out’ – Ig Nobel Winner Saul Justin Newman

Generated Summary

This document reports on the findings of Saul Justin Newman, a senior research fellow at the University College London Centre for Longitudinal Studies, who won an Ig Nobel Prize for his research. The study investigates the claims about extreme human aging, specifically focusing on the validity of data related to centenarians and supercentenarians. The approach involves a critical analysis of existing data, particularly concerning birth certificates, death certificates, and the accuracy of age claims in various regions known for high longevity, such as Okinawa, Japan, and the so-called “blue zones.” The research employs a critical lens to debunk claims that the data on extreme human aging is rotten from the inside out, calling into question the reliability of the longevity data, particularly in regions known for high concentrations of centenarians, like Okinawa in Japan and other “blue zones.”

Key Findings & Statistics

• The document mentions that Newman tracked down 80% of people aged over 110 in the world. Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the US, there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate.
• A Japanese government review in 2010 found that 82% of people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead, questioning the reliability of longevity data.
• The document notes that Okinawa, Japan has had the worst health in Japan, eating the least vegetables and being heavy drinkers, counterintuitively associated with longevity.
• Eurostat keeps track of life expectancy in Sardinia, the Italian blue zone, and Ikaria in Greece, where the study found that in 1990, Sardinia had the 51st highest old-age life expectancy in Europe out of 128 regions, and Ikaria was 109th.
• The document mentions that at least 72% of centenarians in Greece were dead, missing, or essentially pension-fraud cases.
• According to the Greek minister, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time.
• In Italy, some 30,000 “living” pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997.
• Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there’s the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records.

Other Important Findings

• The research highlights the importance of verifying data, especially concerning birth certificates and death certificates, to ascertain the accuracy of age claims.
• The study shows how the absence of birth certificates and the presence of potential fraud in the system can undermine the validity of claims about extreme longevity.
• The document suggests that the places consistently reaching 100 at the highest rates according to the UN are Thailand, Malawi, Western Sahara and Puerto Rico, where birth certificates were cancelled completely as a legal document in 2010 because they were so full of pension fraud.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The primary limitation is the reliance on the data available, which may be flawed due to errors, fraud, and inconsistencies in record-keeping.
• The document mentions that the study is limited by the fact that it mostly relies on existing data from various sources and countries.
• The study does not appear to be based on original data collection, relying instead on existing data.
• The study acknowledges the complexities in analyzing data on extreme aging, given the issues with accurate record-keeping.

Conclusion

The research, which led to an Ig Nobel Prize, reveals significant issues with the accuracy of claims about extreme human longevity. The document casts doubt on the reliability of data, particularly in regions celebrated for their high numbers of centenarians. The main takeaway is that the data on extreme human aging is often unreliable due to factors such as fraud, error, and inconsistencies in record-keeping. The findings emphasize the need for critical evaluation of data and the importance of accurate record-keeping, such as birth and death certificates. The document suggests that the claims about how long people are living mostly don’t stack up. Newman’s work underscores the critical need for more reliable and rigorous scientific scrutiny of longevity claims. In the face of these complexities, the document calls for physicists to develop a measure of human age that doesn’t depend on documents. The study implies that a more cautious approach is warranted, highlighting the need for more robust data and methodologies in studying human longevity. The research suggests that the key to longevity might be tied to wealth.