Abstract
Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns pose significant threats to developing countries with fragile social, economic, and political structures. While research has intensified on socioeconomic impacts of climate change, existing survey studies exhibit substantial scope variations and seldom concurrently analyze these impacts, hindering policy coordination. This study reviews literature on the broad spectrum of socioeconomic impacts of climate change to discern trends and underscore areas requiring additional attention. The survey unveils that, across various socioeconomic indicators, the most vulnerable groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate change, with long-term impacts forecasted to surpass medium-term effects. Adaptation and mitigation options are feasible but must be tailored to local contexts.
Generated Summary
This review article, published in *Heliyon*, conducts a literature survey to examine the socioeconomic impacts of climate change in developing countries over the next few decades. The study employs a desk literature review, focusing on existing studies to identify trends and patterns, particularly from a developing economy perspective. The research methodology involves identifying keywords related to climate change indicators and socioeconomic factors, followed by broad searches and the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The review prioritizes studies with a strong quantitative orientation but does not disregard qualitative studies if they quantitatively measure impacts. The study covers a total of 139 studies gathered from various sources, including Scopus, Google Scholar, and the Web of Science. The review explores impacts on economic growth, agricultural productivity, food security, health, energy, and water resources, providing a broad overview of the multifaceted effects of climate change on these critical sectors. The study aims to identify trends, underscore areas needing more attention, and provide insights for policy coordination.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The IPCC reports that the Earth’s average temperature increased by 1.09 °C from 2011 to 2020 compared to 1850–1900 levels.
- Extreme weather events, once occurring every 10 years in the late 19th century, now occur 2.8 times per decade and could increase to 4.1 times per decade if global warming hits 1.5 °C.
- Mendelsohn, Morrison et al. [27] projected a cumulative loss of 0.3 percent of GDP for the global economy by 2060 under 2 °C global warming.
- Stern [45] forecasted a modest impact of climate change, around 0.2-2 percent of global GDP by 2100 under 2 °C warming.
- Mendelsohn, Schlesinger, and Williams [44] predicted cumulative damage of not greater than 0.1 percent of GDP by 2100 at 2.5 °C.
- By 2030, global economic loss under the business-as-usual scenario is estimated at approximately US$305 billion annually, rising to around US$1.628 trillion by 2050.
- Developing economies, particularly India and China, will bear the brunt of climate change impacts, accounting for over 40 percent of global GDP losses by 2050.
- China risking 10.7 percent, 4.6 percent, and 3.1 percent of its GDP to climate change under the respective scenarios, while the United States faced lower risks of 3.2 percent, 0.8 percent, and 0.3 percent of output.
- The global population’s risk related to drought was projected to be highest in 2046–2065 under scenario SSP3-RCP8.5, with a 63 percent increase in the number of people affected, compared with the base period (i.e., 1986–2005).
- Economic output reduction at 2.5°C-3°C warming by 2100 could reach 10 percent by mid-century and between 15 and 25 percent by 2100, rising to over 30 percent at 4 °C warming by 2100.
- Rest of Eastern Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda projects the % change in GDP/year: 2027: -4, 2037: -5, 2047: -6, 2067: -7, 2100: -8.
- Rest of Southern Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa projects the % change in GDP/year: 2027: -1, 2037: -2, 2047: -3, 2067: -4, 2100: -5.
- Valenzuela and Anderson [1] conducted a simulation study using global data, revealing that the response of yield to climate change shocks is expected to be negative in developing countries but positive in high-income countries. They anticipate a reduction in agricultural output in developing countries by 1.9 percent by 2030 and 4.3 percent by 2050.
- In Africa, the decline is projected to be steep, with sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa expected to experience a 2.9 percent decrease in agricultural output by 2030 and 6.8 percent by 2050.
- Studies by Calzadilla et al. [67], Gurgel et al. [68], Molotoks et al. [69], Wiebe et al. [70], Li et al. [71], and Schmidhuber and Tubiello [64] corroborate the adverse impact of climate change on global agricultural production, with regional variations.
- Wiebe et al. [70] combined socioeconomic models with climate change models and developed three case scenarios: an optimistic scenario (SSP1-RCP4.5), with slow growth in population, fast growth in income, and slow growth in greenhouse gas emissions; a pessimistic scenario (SPP3-RCP8.5), with fast population growth, slow growth in income, and fast growth in greenhouse gas emissions; and an intermediate case (SSP2-RCP6). Their study also projects that at the global scale, yields of major crops will decline by 5-7 percent relative to levels in 2050 in the absence of climate change under the SSP1-RCP4.5 and SSP3-RCP8.5 scenarios.
- For rice, the price rise ranges from 31.2 percent in the optimistic case to 78 percent in the pessimistic case, compared to the baseline of 58 percent. For maize, the price change varies from 87.3 percent in the optimistic scenario to 106.3 percent in the pessimistic scenario, relative to the baseline of 100.7 percent.
- By 2050, under drier conditions, rainfed maize yield could decrease by 59.5 percent, while millet might see a 13.9 percent increase, sorghum a 14.3 percent decrease, and sesame a 24.5 percent decrease compared to scenarios without climate change.
- The study forecast a moderate reductions in farmland value (8–10 percent) from 2021 to 2060, increasing to 18–24 percent from 2061 to 2100.
- Between 2030 and 2050, approximately 250,000 people are expected to die from climate change-related health issues such as malnutrition, malaria, heat stress, and diarrhea.
- The number of undernourished people will increase by 5-26 percent relative to a no-climate-change scenario.
- They projected that with both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in 2030 and 2050, the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the annual temperature range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and reservoir hosts, respectively.
Other Important Findings
- The survey unveils that, across various socioeconomic indicators, the most vulnerable groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate change, with long-term impacts forecasted to surpass medium-term effects.
- Climate change’s extensive impacts on the economy, human health, water resources, food systems, economic growth, labor productivity, energy markets, and poverty are also highlighted.
- The review finds that the focus on climate change impacts is biased towards Asia and Africa.
- Studies on climate change’s effects on health, hunger, undernourishment, and poverty total just 20, indicating an underrepresentation of these areas in the literature.
- In their global assessment of climate change impact, Kompas et al. [54] support the assertion that beyond 2 °C, the impact of climate change on economic growth would be significantly greater in the long term (by 2100) than in the short and medium term, particularly among developing economies compared to developed economies.
- Studies have shown a nonlinear concave effect of climate change on economic growth, indicating that while additional global warming may stimulate growth in cooler areas, it will reduce growth in hotter regions.
- The distribution of publication dates shows a skew towards recent years, with the majority of papers published after 2017. The highest numbers of publications were recorded in 2020 and 2022.
- Global-level studies highlight key aspects of the economic-climate change relationship. Firstly, there’s no consensus on the optimal temperature, with tipping points at either 2 °C or 3 °C; however, impacts are heightened above 2°C, affecting economies regardless of temperature levels below this.
- Secondly, the impact of climate change will be greater in the long term than in the short to medium term.
- The cross-sectional and temporal variations in the impact of climate change indicate a potential risk of widening inequality and reducing growth convergence among countries over time in the future.
- The study also indicates that low-income countries will experience greater economic losses than high-income countries across all scenarios.
- The study also indicates that low-income countries will experience greater economic losses than high-income countries across all scenarios.
- The study projected that a decrease in sugarcane yield, harvested area, and production by 23.95–33.26 percent, 1.29–2.49 percent, and 24.94-34.93 percent, respectively, during 2046-2055 compared to the baseline period of 1992–2016.
- Studies in Asia underscore the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, influenced by factors such as agroecological conditions, crop type, and available adaptation measures.
- The studies focusing on Africa are sparse but collectively demonstrate the diverse and intricate impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Africa.
- Under the RCP8.5 scenario, climate change will decrease precipitation by 10.9 percent.
- With a 4 °C global warming scenario, maize and rice yields are projected to decline by 11 percent and 22 percent, respectively, compared to the baseline.
- In the case of wind power generation potential, Zhou et al. [145] projected that under the SSP5-RCP8.5 climate scenario, average wind speed will fall by 40 percent, which would reduce wind power generation, particularly in northern China.
- In the sub-humid zone of Ghana climate change was associated with an estimated average yield reduction of 19 percent and 14 percent for the Obatanpa maize variety.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- Existing studies vary significantly in scope and rarely analyze these impacts simultaneously, complicating policy coordination.
- The lack of consensus on the relative and absolute scale of climate change impacts across sectors and development outcomes in the literature creates uncertainty in policy design and weakens efforts to address climate change.
- The studies on Asia underscore the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, influenced by factors such as agroecological conditions, crop type, and available adaptation measures.
- Many studies discussed assume no adaptation, leading to upward-biased estimates of climate change impacts on crop yields.
- Firstly, utilizing a cross-sectional approach renders the model susceptible to omitted variable bias. Secondly, the omission of carbon dioxide fertilization effects, anticipated to boost productivity, could skew results. Lastly, the cross-sectional method’s weakness in addressing temporal variation, such as price fluctuations and forthcoming technological advancements, may impact the accuracy of projections.
- The studies on Asia underscore the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, influenced by factors such as agroecological conditions, crop type, and available adaptation measures.
Conclusion
The review underscores the multifaceted and severe impacts of climate change on socioeconomic indicators in developing countries. It highlights the disproportionate burden borne by vulnerable populations and the long-term consequences exceeding medium-term effects. The study reveals a critical need for tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for the most vulnerable countries. The study also highlights that the predicted impact of climate change on GDP may be minimal at the global level, it is quite substantial at the subregional and country levels in some cases. The article underscores the need for further research to address gaps in understanding, particularly regarding the complex dynamics of climate change’s effects on agricultural output, livelihoods, and food security. The literature reveals a significant gap in the global evidence base regarding the impact of climate change on specific crops. The study emphasizes the importance of climate-resilient interventions and policies, the exploration of synergies between energy demand and supply, and the integration of climate adaptation and mitigation into broader energy planning and policy frameworks. The literature reveals that there will likely be winners and losers, most probably in the medium term, but in the long term, all economies (both developing and developed) might be on the losing end. These findings emphasize the need for integrated efforts at various levels to address climate change and support vulnerable populations in adapting to its consequences.