Abstract
Food production requires application of fertilizers containing phosphorus, nitrogen and potassium on agricultural fields in order to sustain crop yields. However modern agriculture is dependent on phosphorus derived from phosphate rock, which is a non-renewable resource and current global reserves may be depleted in 50–100 years. While phosphorus demand is projected to increase, the expected global peak in phosphorus production is predicted to occur around 2030. The exact timing of peak phosphorus production might be disputed, however it is widely acknowledged within the fertilizer industry that the quality of remaining phosphate rock is decreasing and production costs are increasing. Yet future access to phosphorus receives little or no international attention. This paper puts forward the case for including long-term phosphorus scarcity on the priority agenda for global food security. Opportunities for recovering phosphorus and reducing demand are also addressed together with institutional challenges.
Generated Summary
This journal article examines the critical role of phosphorus in global food security, focusing on the implications of declining phosphate rock reserves and the potential for a future crisis. The study employs a historical perspective, tracing the evolution of phosphorus use in agriculture, and analyzes current trends in demand, supply, and environmental impacts. The research explores potential solutions, including phosphorus recovery, efficient use, and dietary changes, while also addressing institutional and attitudinal barriers to sustainable phosphorus management. The research methodology involves a review of existing literature, data analysis, and the application of Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) to quantify phosphorus flows in the global food system. The scope of the study encompasses the entire food production and consumption chain, from mining to consumption, with a focus on identifying points of loss, inefficiency, and opportunities for recovery and reuse. The article highlights the interconnectedness of food security, resource scarcity, and environmental sustainability, arguing for an integrated approach to manage phosphorus resources effectively and ensure long-term food production.
Key Findings & Statistics
- 90% of global demand for phosphorus is for food production, currently around 148 million tonnes of phosphate rock per year.
- Global phosphate reserves may be depleted in 50-100 years.
- Demand for phosphorus is predicted to increase by 50-100% by 2050.
- The global peak in phosphorus production is predicted to occur around 2030.
- The price of phosphate rock and related fertilizers increased by 700% in a 14-month period in 2007-2008.
- Around 800 million people worldwide lack sufficient access to food.
- Global food production will need to increase by about 70% by 2050 to meet global demand.
- 75% of agricultural soils in Sub-Saharan Africa are nutrient deficient.
- In 2007-2008, phosphate rock and fertilizer demand exceeded supply.
- Meat and dairy products, which require higher phosphorus inputs than other foods, are becoming more popular in China and India.
- Current global agricultural harvests contain approximately 12 MT P, of which 7 MT P is processed for feed, food, and fiber, while 40% of the remaining crop residues is returned to the land.
- Human bodies require roughly 1.2 g of phosphorus per day, which equates to approximately 3 MT P globally.
- Globally, humans excrete around 3 million tonnes of phosphorus in urine and feces annually.
- In the 1970s, the average grade of phosphate rock was 15% P; by 1996, it had decreased to less than 13% P.
- A vegetarian diet requires 0.6 kg of mineral phosphate fertilizer per year, or 4.2 kg of phosphate rock per person.
- A meat-based diet requires 1.6 kg of mineral phosphate fertilizer per year, or 11.8 kg of phosphate rock per person.
Other Important Findings
- Modern agriculture heavily relies on phosphorus derived from phosphate rock, a non-renewable resource.
- The Green Revolution increased agricultural output, but also led to increased reliance on chemical fertilizers.
- Demand for phosphorus fertilizers is increasing in developing and emerging economies.
- In Sub-Saharan Africa, low fertilizer application rates and nutrient-deficient soils contribute to declining yields.
- The industry recognizes that the quality of remaining phosphate rock is decreasing and production costs are increasing.
- Phosphate rock reserves are concentrated in a few countries, making them subject to international political influence.
- The biofuel industry and increased meat and dairy consumption contribute to increased demand for phosphorus fertilizers.
- The article highlights that recovering and reusing phosphorus from the food production and consumption system is crucial for sustainability.
- Urban and peri-urban agriculture can benefit from the use of recovered phosphorus.
- The use of organic fertilizers can reduce the demand for processed mineral fertilizers.
- Wastewater reuse can provide a cheap and reliable source of phosphorus, but requires careful management to avoid health risks.
- Switching to a “smart vegetarian” diet could be a cost-effective measure to reduce resource inputs.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The exact timing of the peak phosphorus production is uncertain and disputed.
- Data on the use of organic phosphorus sources is often not quantified in investigations of phosphorus flows, which limits the scope of analysis.
- There is a lack of comprehensive studies analyzing anthropogenic global flows of phosphorus.
- The analysis relies on data from various sources, and the reliability and accuracy of the data may vary.
- Small-scale trials of phosphorus recovery exist, but commercialization and global implementation face challenges and could take decades.
- The reliance on oil and fossil fuels for transport and production creates a vulnerability to changing energy costs.
- The study primarily focuses on the supply and demand dynamics and doesn’t offer specific regional assessments, or a wide array of solutions.
Conclusion
The study emphasizes the urgent need to address the scarcity of phosphorus, a critical element for food production, and calls for an integrated approach that considers the entire food system. The analysis clearly outlines the challenges and the urgent necessity for action. The authors stress that the current reliance on phosphate rock, a non-renewable resource, is unsustainable, and the article puts forward the case for including long-term phosphorus scarcity on the priority agenda for global food security. The authors suggest several solutions. One is to recycle more phosphorus by recovering it from the food production and consumption chain and reusing it. Another solution is to switch to more plant-based diets. A shift towards more sustainable practices and a focus on closing nutrient cycles are recommended. In conclusion, the article underscores that future food security is intrinsically linked to the sustainable management of phosphorus resources. It argues that merely increasing the efficiency of fertilizer use will not be sufficient. A shift from reliance on phosphate rock to renewable resources and a change in diet, if implemented, have the potential to mitigate the impending crisis. The authors highlight the necessity of coordinated action involving multiple stakeholders and a shift in perspective. The study emphasizes the urgency of this matter and calls for significant changes in current practices to ensure long-term food security. The authors’ final thoughts point out that phosphorus scarcity is not just a technological or economic problem, but also an environmental one. The reliance on mined phosphorus has created waste streams, pollution, and energy-intensive production systems. Addressing the crisis will require not only technical innovations, but also institutional changes and a change in consumer behaviour.