Abstract
Over the past 50 years, India’s agrifood system has undergone an extraordinary evolution, transitioning from a food scarce to a secured nation. Yet the challenges of nutrition security, regional inequalities, and unsustainable agricultural practices persist. While policies governing these areas prevail, they lack integrative implementation needed for bringing overarching food system changes. Moving forward from siloed policy evaluation towards an integrated system framework, this study attempts to conduct the first large-scale multi-indicator food system assessment for India using a global food and land system modelling framework. We evaluate the effect of 23 food system measures (FSMs) individually and in packages on 14 indicators encompassing the four dimensions of food systems, including health, environment, inclusion, and economy. Measures for transformative food system changes include biosphere, and agriculture (land, water, and soil), equitable livelihoods (poverty, wages, and employment), and sustainable external transitions (slow population, human development). Results indicate that 14 out of 15 indicators improve due to synergistic effects driven by coordinated interventions, which, in turn, reduces trade-offs among the four dimensions of food system. While progress is observed in most health and environmental indicators, challenges such as rising obesity and nitrogen pollution still persist. Our attempt to quantify India’s food system changes under counterfactual scenarios enables understanding the trade-offs across dimensions, as illustrated by the food-based dietary scenario, which generates positive outcomes for most food system dimensions pertaining to health, environment, inclusion, but also aggravates water distress and falls short of delivering employment benefits for the society. However, declining agricultural employment in the FSTSDP scenario, explicates a larger role of external transformations beyond the food system, emphasizing the need for sustainable social transformations for supporting overarching food system changes. The comprehensive and forward-looking food system outcomes that this study elucidates aids in identification of pivotal intervention points and facilitates strategizing policies for transformative changes.
Generated Summary
This report, submitted to the Food System Economics Commission, examines the transformation towards a healthy, environmentally friendly, and inclusive food system in India. The study employs a multi-indicator food system assessment framework, utilizing a global food and land system modeling approach. It evaluates the effects of 23 food system measures (FSMs) and various packages on 14 indicators across four dimensions: health, environment, inclusion, and economy. The research aims to identify synergies and trade-offs specific to key FSMs and assess how these frameworks can assist policymakers in building better food systems for India. The methodology involves analyzing five distinct packages aligned with the United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS) action tracks, including healthy diets and sustainable consumption patterns, nature-positive agricultural transition, biodiversity protection, equitable livelihoods, and broader socioeconomic development. The study quantifies the effects of different measures, considering the future trajectories of transitions and analyzing the baseline scenario aligned with the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenario of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2).
Key Findings & Statistics
- Undernourishment: Approximately 194 million people in India are undernourished.
- Child Stunting: 43.3 million children under the age of five are stunted.
- Obesity: Obesity affects nearly 21% of females and 19% of male adults.
- Water Use: Nearly 80% of freshwater is used for rice and wheat cultivation.
- Land Protection: Less than 5% of land is effectively protected for conservation.
- Nitrogen Pollution: India incurs an annual cost of around 75 billion USD due to nitrogen pollution.
- Emissions: Emissions from rice and livestock contribute nearly 14% of India’s economy-wide emissions.
- Agricultural Workforce: Agriculture engages over 50% of the workforce, with 82% of farmers being smallholders.
- Underweight Reduction: The underweight population reduces by only 6.1% by 2050 to 307 million people.
- Overweight/Obesity Increase: Headcount of obese people increases from 58.6 million in 2020 to 176 million by 2050.
- YLL Increase: Years of Life Lost (YLL) increase from 50 to 72 million in 2020-2050.
- Water Flow Violations: Annual environmental flow violations increase to 12 km³ by 2050 in the Diet scenario.
- Crop Diversity: Crop diversity improves to 2.55 from 2.27 in the baseline by 2050 under the Diets scenario.
- AFOLU Emissions: Combined interventions, as demonstrated by the Diets and Agriculture packages, can potentially reduce annual AFOLU emissions to 0.6 and 0.9 GtCO2 respectively, from 1.5 GtCO2 in the baseline by 2050.
- Poverty Reduction: By 2050, about 395 million people are pulled out of poverty (at 3.20 USD/day).
- Expenditure: Household expenditure for agricultural products declines as a share of income (Figure SM3), but the value of food consumption increases per person from 374 in 2020 to 543 USD in 2050.
- Agricultural Wage Index: Agricultural wage index improves to 3.5 as hourly labor costs per worker is projected to increase from 0.66 to 1.64 USD05MER by 2050.
- Agricultural Employment Decrease: Agricultural employment is projected to decline substantially from 185 to 96 million people by 2050.
- Reduced YLL: Weight management measures can potentially reduce premature mortality from 72 to 41 and 65 million years of life years lost by 2050.
- Production Cost: Reducing underweight to normal weight comes at an additional annual production cost of 23.1 billion USD (3.5% higher than baseline).
- Expenditure Savings: Reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity can potentially contribute towards annual cost savings of 17.4 billion USD (2.7% lower than baseline).
- Employment Reduction: By only liberalizing trade where trade reflects competitive advantage (LibTrade), agricultural employment reduces by 9 million people.
- Expenditure Increases: Annual per capita food expenditure rises to 652 USD by 2050, primarily driven by inflated food prices compared to the baseline scenario.
- Increased Employment: Dietary transitions engaging lower ASFs can potentially cause lesser economic opportunities in the agriculture and livestock sector causing reduced employment by nearly 8-13%. The Agriculture package achieves the maximum increase in agricultural employment, adding 36 million people to the agricultural labour force.
- Income Inequality: Income inequality indicated by the Gini Coefficient (Fig. 5c) is projected to be high in the Agriculture, Livelihood, and Diets packages largely driven by increased food expenditure due to high food prices.
- Poverty Increase: Expenditure on agricultural products experiences a significant surge of nearly 11.8% to reach 608 USD/person/yr.
- Employment Decline: Agricultural employment declines to 65 million by 2050 from 96 million in the baseline.
Other Important Findings
- The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive action on biodiversity protection, improved agricultural management, and dietary transition.
- Synergistic effects are evident in policy domains, with the Diets package showing positive synergies for 11 out of 14 indicators.
- The Livelihood package showcases synergistic effects for 7 indicators but generates trade-offs with 3 indicators.
- The Agriculture package brings more synergies with 4 out of 14 indicators but worsens other indicators.
- The Food System Transformation (FSTSDP) integrates 23 FSMs and represents an economy-wide sustainable development pathway combining the FSTSSP2 and CrossSector transitions, improving 13 out of 14 indicators.
- The FSTSDP improves health outcomes with the elimination of underweight and the reduction of obesity, and premature mortality further reduces by 69.4%.
- Overall socio-economic development (CrossSector) is projected to lead to a more affordable food system.
- The report highlights the importance of sustainable structural changes outside the food system for India’s food system transformation.
- The study underscores that the transition to a more sustainable food system in India is expected to follow the ‘Lewis trap’ and ‘farmer excluding’ path.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study does not prescribe specific interventions or policy measures for implementation.
- Agricultural employment numbers include people employed in agriculture and livestock production, but not activities related to the value chain, services, and retail, potentially representing lower-bound projections.
- The study is based on modeling, which has inherent limitations and assumptions.
- The study acknowledges that the chosen scenarios and measures may not fully capture all the complexities of India’s food system.
- The analysis relies on a set of indicators, and the choice of these indicators may not completely reflect all aspects of social welfare.
Conclusion
The research highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive and collaborative approach to transform India’s food system towards health, environmental sustainability, and inclusivity. The findings underscore the importance of concerted efforts to address challenges like reduced obesity, increased employment in the farm sector, and nitrogen pollution. The study demonstrates that a food-based dietary scenario can yield positive outcomes across multiple dimensions, although it also has negative consequences. The analysis reveals that external transformations are crucial, particularly those outside the food system. The study’s intent was not to prescribe specific interventions but to uncover the interconnectedness of various indicators within the context of large food system changes. The results suggest that the integration of FSMs into a single transformation pathway, like the FSTSSP2 scenario, can create synergies. The FSTSDP scenario, which combines FSMs with CrossSector transitions, improves health outcomes and promotes environmental sustainability. The report emphasizes the necessity of managing agricultural unemployment to drive an inclusive food system. The reliance on food systems outside the food system is key. This study contributes valuable insights for identifying pivotal intervention points and formulating policies to support transformative changes. The study’s assessment highlights that while the challenges of nutrition security, regional inequalities, and unsustainable agricultural practices persist, policy actions need to take a systemic view. Concerted demand- and supply-side measures, including sustainable structural transformations, can generate greater co-benefits than trade-offs. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how to create a more sustainable and equitable food system for India.