A Transformation Towards A Healthy, Environmentally Friendly, And Inclusive Food System In India

Abstract

Over the past 50 years, India’s agrifood system has undergone an extraordinary evolution, transitioning from a food scarce to a secured nation. Yet the challenges of nutrition security, regional inequalities, and unsustainable agricultural practices persist. While policies governing these areas prevail, they lack integrative implementation needed for bringing overarching food system changes. Moving forward from siloed policy evaluation towards an integrated system framework, this study attempts to conduct the first large-scale multi-indicator food system assessment for India using a global food and land system modelling framework. We evaluate the effect of 23 food system measures (FSMs) individually and in packages on 14 indicators encompassing the four dimensions of food systems, including health, environment, inclusion, and economy. Measures for transformative food system changes include biosphere, and agriculture (land, water, and soil), equitable livelihoods (poverty, wages, and employment), and sustainable external transitions (slow population, human development). Results indicate that 14 out of 15 indicators improve due to synergistic effects driven by coordinated interventions, which, in turn, reduces trade-offs among the four dimensions of food system. While progress is observed in most health and environmental indicators, challenges such as rising obesity and nitrogen pollution still persist. Our attempt to quantify India’s food system changes under counterfactual scenarios enables understanding the trade-offs across dimensions, as illustrated by the food-based dietary scenario, which generates positive outcomes for most food system dimensions pertaining to health, environment, inclusion, but also aggravates water distress and falls short of delivering employment benefits for the society. However, declining agricultural employment in the FSTSDP scenario, explicates a larger role of external transformations beyond the food system, emphasizing the need for sustainable social transformations for supporting overarching food system changes. The comprehensive and forward-looking food system outcomes that this study elucidates aids in identification of pivotal intervention points and facilitates strategizing policies for transformative changes.

Generated Summary

This study, submitted to the Food System Economics Commission by IIMA, conducts a large-scale multi-indicator food system assessment for India, focusing on health, environment, inclusion, and economic development up to 2050. It employs an extended modeling framework, evaluating the effects of 23 food system measures (FSMs) and their packages on 14 indicators. The research aims to identify synergies and trade-offs specific to key FSMs, and how the Food System Transformation (FST) framework can assist policymakers in building healthier, more environmentally friendly, and equitable food systems for India. The study uses the Model for Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) as its central model, incorporating various models to address core outcome indicators. The analysis focuses on five distinct packages aligned with the United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS) action tracks, represented by FSMs and transformation levers outside the food system. The study also examines the effects of coordinated interventions, such as dietary changes, to understand their impact on various food system dimensions. The reference baseline scenario aligns with the ‘middle-of-the-road scenario’ of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) to evaluate their contribution towards the desired transformational change, represented by the food system development pathway (FSTSDP).

Key Findings & Statistics

• Approximately 194 million people in India are undernourished, with 43.3 million children under the age of five stunted.
• Obesity affects nearly 21% of females and 19% of male adults.
• Nearly 80% of freshwater is used for rice and wheat cultivation.
• The country incurs an annual cost of around 75 billion USD due to nitrogen pollution.
• Emissions from rice and livestock contribute nearly 14% of India’s economy-wide emissions.
• In the reference scenario, the underweight population reduces only by 6.1% by 2050 to 307 million people.
• Overweight and obesity are projected to increase to 176 million by 2050.
• Years of Life Lost (YLL) are projected to increase from 50 to 72 million in 2020-2050.
• The *Diet* package can increase the population by 564 million people.
• In the *Diet* package, the underweight population reduces by 330.5 million.
• In the *Diets* scenario, ASF comprises nearly 9% of calorie intake.
• The *Diet* package demonstrates a 2.9% decrease in water withdrawals.
• The *Livelihood* package reduces agricultural water use by 18%.
• The *Agriculture* package increases the annual flow violations to 47 km³.
• The *Livelihood* package reduces nitrogen surplus to 27 Mt Nr/year in 2050.
• The *Agriculture* package reduces the annual nitrogen surplus by 35% to 20 Mt.
• The *Diets* scenario can improve crop diversity to 2.55.
• The *Agriculture* package decreases crop diversity to 2.17.
• The *Diets* and *Agriculture* packages can reduce annual AFOLU emissions to 0.6 and 0.9 GtCO2, respectively.
• The *CrossSector* will lead to a more affordable food system without a substantial rise in food expenditures, with an improved wage index to 5.03.
• Agricultural employment is projected to decrease to 65 million people.
• Under the FSTSDP premature mortality reduces by 69.4%.

Other Important Findings

• India’s agrifood system has undergone an extraordinary evolution.
• The study uses the underlying methodology of the global study (Bodirsky et al., 2023) and is based on an extended modelling framework.
• The core outcome indicators considered in this study were addressed with the help of coupled models that includes a macroeconomic and energy model (REMIND), the vegetation, crop, and hydrology model LPJmL, the reduced complexity climate model (MAGICC), food demand model (Bodirsky et al., 2020), the dietary health model (Springmann et al., 2018; Springman et al., 2021), and an income distribution and poverty model (Soergel et al., 2021).
• Five distinct packages aligned with the United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS) action tracks are utilized in the analysis: healthy diets and sustainable consumption patterns (*Diets*), nature-positive agricultural transition (*Agriculture*), biodiversity protection (*Biodiversity*), equitable livelihoods (*Livelihood*), and a broader socioeconomic development external to the food system (*CrossSector*).
• The study indicates that 14 out of 15 indicators improve due to synergistic effects driven by coordinated interventions.
• The *Diets* package supports diversified dietary composition, with more fruits, nuts and vegetables, legumes, whole grains, and less sugars.
• In the *Diets* scenario, the population having substantially increases.
• The *Livelihood* package showcases synergistic effects for 7 indicators but generates trade-offs with 3 indicators.
• The *LibTrade* measure is the main driver of synergies with environmental indicators, especially water use and emissions.
• The *MinWage* measure is the main driver of trade-offs.
• The *Biosphere* package improves 5 environmental indicators.
• The *Agriculture* package brings more synergies with 4 out of 14 indicators.
• The *FSTSDP* integrates 23 FSMs and represents an economy-wide sustainable development pathway.
• Human development provides increased means for consuming expensive foods like processed food.
• The *FSTSDP* improves 13 out of 14 indicators.
• The *FSTSDP* will lead to the elimination of underweight and reduction of obesity.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The study acknowledges that while the *Diets* package, fruits, vegetables, and nuts being a labour-intensive production process, it may raise agricultural expenditures.
• High food prices are likely to negatively affect the affordability of healthy and nutritious diets.
• Dietary transitions engaging lower ASFs can potentially cause lesser economic opportunities in the agriculture and livestock sector.
• The *Agriculture* package may lead to increased agricultural employment but worsen other indicators.
• The study emphasizes that the transformation is expected to follow the ‘Lewis trap’ and ‘farmer excluding’ path.
• The study’s agricultural employment numbers only include people employed in agriculture and livestock production and not activities related to the value chain, services, and retail.
• The intent behind evaluating alternative measures was not to prescribe specific interventions or policy measures ready for implementation, but rather to uncover the interconnectedness among a wide range of indicators.

Conclusion

The study concludes that achieving a healthy, environmentally friendly, and inclusive food system in India requires rigorous collaborative efforts. It underscores the need for special attention on reducing obesity, increasing employment in the farm sector, and addressing nitrogen pollution. The analysis highlights the benefits of the food-based dietary scenario, which generates positive outcomes across all food system dimensions but also exposes trade-offs. The research emphasizes the importance of external transformations outside the food system. The study recommends the integration of 23 FSMs into a single transformation pathway represented by the FSTSSP2 scenario, to enforce the benefits from individual measures. The *Biosphere*, *Diets*, and *Livelihoods* packages should be considered to minimize environmental trade-offs by the *Agriculture* package. Additionally, concerted demand and supply side measures enhance the emission reduction potential of the AFOLU sector. Overall socioeconomic development (*CrossSector*) is projected to lead to a more affordable food system with the improved wage. The *FSTSDP* is an economy-wide sustainable development pathway. The agricultural workforce gains from the increase in hourly payments. In essence, the study emphasizes the importance of addressing interconnections among a wide range of indicators for effective food system transformations.