Generated Summary
This paper analyzes how climate change risks impact the production and trade of major cereals by producers, exporters, and importers in international markets. The focus is on maize (corn), rice, and wheat, which account for over 60% of global food calories. The research examines the implications of a warming climate and other weather impacts on production and trade flows, highlighting climate risk mitigation strategies and advocating for a transition to agroecology. The study uses a combination of climate studies and data on production and trade to examine the impact of climate change on cereals. The approach includes examining the impacts of climate change on major cereal producers and net food-importing countries. The methodology involves analyzing how climate change affects the production and trade of major cereals, including maize, rice, and wheat. It highlights the vulnerability of these crops and examines strategies to mitigate the risks associated with climate change and to support food security in a changing climate.
Key Findings & Statistics
- Cereals provide the largest number of calories and nutrients to humans, accounting for as much as 50% of the population’s diet in some regions. From 2000-20, cereals were the most important contributor to human diet in all regions, with shares ranging from 24% in Oceania to 50% or more in regions, such as Africa and Asia.
- Only 37% of the harvested area of major crops is used for direct food consumption. The global harvested area of primary crops increased by 22% between 2000 and 2020.
- In 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% of maize volumes, 57% of rice, and 45% of wheat.
- Globally, an estimated 37% of harvested major crops is used for domestic food crops.
- The effects of climate change are occurring sooner than initially projected in regions such as Africa, Asia and Oceania, as evidenced by recurring droughts and flooding.
- The top 3-5 exporting nations of wheat, rice and maize dominate world markets.
- In 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% of maize volumes, 57% of rice and 45% of wheat.
- In 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% of maize volumes, 57% of rice and 45% of wheat.
- The top 10 producing countries account for 80% of global wheat production. The top three exporters accounted for 64% for maize, 57% for rice and 45% for wheat.
- The bulk of global maize production is yellow maize.
- The study found declining yield responses for maize, soybean and rice due to GHG emissions and warming temperatures. It found that the average global crop yields for maize could decrease by 24% by late century.
- The U.S. is the world’s leading producer of maize (almost exclusively yellow maize). About 43.5% of U.S. maize output is used for animal feed, 44.4% for biofuels (ethanol), and 12% for food, seed and other industrial uses.
- In 2022 and 2023, these three markets accounted for 70% of U.S maize exports.
- Wheat was the most exported cereal (40%) in 2020, marginally in front of maize (39%) and rice (9%).
- Over the next decade, cereal production is expected to increase by 336 MT, due to increases in major grain-producing countries. Over half of the global production increase in wheat will come from India.
- The value of global food exports increased 370% from USD380 billion in 2000 to USD1.42 trillion in 2020.
- The Americas were the biggest net exporter with a surplus of USD121 billion in 2020, and Asia was the biggest net importer with a USD197 billion food deficit in 2020.
- Agriculture imports grew from a record USD194 billion in 2022 to USD198.3 billion in 2023, while exports grew from USD174.8 billion to USD195.8 in the same period.
- In 2021, China produced 43% maize and 34% rice, with a large part of demand for maize from domestic animal feed and ethanol fuel.
- Total maize production for 2021-22 stood at 1,224.2 million MT. Maize exports amounted to 180.1 million MT.
- In 2021-22, China was the leading consumer of wheat (148.5 million MT or 18% of global production), followed by India (104.3 million MT or 17% of global production).
- Global rice demand has increased steadily over the years and is expected to rise from 520 million MT in 2021-22 to 555 million MT in 2035.
Other Important Findings
- Climate change is one of the major threats to food security and to global objectives to end hunger and malnutrition by 2030.
- Production from rain-fed agriculture in regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa (accounting for 95% of the region’s farmland) and the Southern Cone of Latin America, is expected to decline due to seasonal water stress.
- The effects of climate change are occurring sooner than initially projected in regions such as Africa, Asia and Oceania, as evidenced by recurring droughts and flooding.
- Rice production is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and in the long run, wheat will also experience declines, forcing the relocation of production to higher elevation or the farming of alternative crops.
- Concentration in production and exports poses risks of price volatility and supply disruptions due to climate change and anthropogenic challenges.
- More localized food production and regional sourcing creates shorter value chains.
- Countries should explore agroecological strategies that identify high-yield, biodiverse and low-emission pathways for specific agricultural production systems.
- Country-level policy should incentivize a climate-adapted and healthy diet-based food system towards 2050 in line with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) recommendations.
- Food system reforms should be informed by country and crop-specific studies that examine links between climate variables and staple food production in specific locations.
- Increased agriculture production to meet demand from population growth is projected to increase GHG emissions around 30% by 2050.
- The study analyzes inter alia: (i) whether climate change impacts could disrupt concentration of global cereal production; (ii) how countries might shift their food trade positions in response to climate impacts; and (iii) climate-induced changes in both producing and importing countries.
- The distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate zones is projected to shift with increased warming. The dry and arid zone is expanding while the polar zone is contracting; however, changes appear less pronounced for the tropical, temperate and boreal zones.
- In the U.S., agriculture intensification over the past 40 years to boost productivity has led to the use of over 5.6 million tons of nitrogen through chemical fertilizers for maize annually, together with close to 1 million tons of nitrogen from manure.
- In 2020, China was the lead producer of over 30 crops, including wheat, rice, tomatoes and potatoes, and in recent times, meat production and consumption have begun to increase.
- The bulk of maize went to animal feed (723.3 million MT), industrial uses (308.4 million MT) and food consumption (137.5 million MT).
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The paper does not address the role of corporate power in shaping trade outcomes and the existing agriculture market structures.
- The study relies on climate models and projections that have inherent uncertainties.
- There is disagreement among crop models, which offer diverging views about the levels of change to be expected in cereal productivity and yields due to climate change at the global level.
- The study does not delve into the intricacies of agricultural trade policies.
- The analysis does not fully consider the impacts of human-made shocks on the food system.
Conclusion
Climate change poses significant risks to cereal production and trade, with a concentration of production and exports among a few major players. The effects of climate change are already visible in regions like Africa and Asia, with increased droughts and floods impacting crop yields. The analysis highlights the need for urgent action to address these challenges. The study emphasizes the importance of transitioning towards agroecological approaches to food production, which are environmentally sustainable, and promote climate change mitigation and adaptation. The reliance on intensive production of a few cereals is becoming increasingly risky due to climate change impacts. A transition to agroecological approaches, especially those focused primarily on small-scale agriculture, would have benefits for the climate, food security and rural livelihoods. The study highlights the need for a shift to more climate-resilient systems of agroecological food production. The reliance on a few crops and major producers increases the vulnerability of the food system to disruptions. By promoting dietary diversity, the environmental impact and the reliance on a few major crops can be reduced. The discussion also mentions that global food consumption tends to rely on a handful of crops, and that global food markets are also dominated by a handful of major producers and exporters, which increases the vulnerability of the food system to sudden disruptions. The report suggests the need for a transition to agroecology and the need to reduce the reliance on a few major crops and producers. The need for climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture is also emphasized, as well as supporting dietary diversity. The paper argues for a transition to agroecology, supporting dietary diversity, and increasing domestic and regional production to reduce the risks associated with climate change and to strengthen food security. The study underscores the urgency of action and the need for a systemic transformation towards sustainable and resilient food systems.