Generated Summary
This briefing note addresses methane emissions in the food system, focusing on the potential of demand-side measures to reduce these emissions. It highlights that agricultural activities are a significant source of methane, exceeding fossil fuels, and argues that addressing livestock numbers and promoting plant-based diets are crucial steps. The document calls for the UK Presidency of COP26 to advocate for effective demand-side food system measures to achieve major methane reductions in the agriculture sector. The briefing suggests that reducing methane emissions can mitigate global warming and is a low-cost approach with multiple co-benefits for land use and public health. The focus is on the urgency of shifting to public diets aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, and how such shifts can be a crucial piece of the mitigation puzzle.
Key Findings & Statistics
- Reducing methane emissions could avoid 0.3°C of warming by 2045.
- Agriculture contributes 40% of anthropogenic methane emissions, overtaking fossil fuels (35%) and waste (20%).
- Livestock accounts for roughly 32% of agriculture methane emissions.
- Ruminants are estimated to have caused a third of total global warming since the industrial revolution.
- Switching to diets lower in meat and dairy could reduce global diet-related health costs by 95% by 2030.
- Switching to diets lower in meat and dairy could reduce projected diet-related GHG emissions by 41-74%.
- Meat production has more than quadrupled since 1961.
- Global meat production has more than quadrupled since 1961, and on its current trajectory, livestock may take 49% of the GHG emissions budget by 2030 allowable under the 1.5°C target.
- Healthy diets might achieve reductions in methane emissions in the range of 15-30 Mt/yr.
- Reduced food loss and waste, improved livestock management, and change to healthier diets have the potential to reduce methane emissions by up to 65–80 Mt/yr over the next few decades.
- Switching to sustainable diets delivers a reduction of 88% of the total mitigation needed within the food system to bring us within a 67% chance of meeting 1.5°C.
Other Important Findings
- Demand-side food systems measures are a necessary carbon mitigation action towards achieving 1.5 degrees.
- Addressing diets is necessary to limit climate change to less than 1.5°C or even 2°C.
- Reducing consumption and production of animal products would spare grazing land for nature-based climate solutions and significantly reduce food-feed competition.
- The sequestration potential of grassland grazed by pasture-fed livestock could offset the greenhouse gas emissions produced by the animals; however, on a global level emissions far outweigh carbon sequestration potential.
- Reducing ruminant production can yield particularly fast reductions in global temperatures in the short-term, because methane is such a potent greenhouse gas.
- The UK must reduce meat consumption significantly by 2030, and beyond.
- Cutting methane emissions could have positive benefits for health and the climate.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The document does not explicitly detail any specific limitations regarding the scope or methodology of the data used.
- It mentions the limitations of solely focusing on technological solutions to combatting methane emissions in the livestock industry without also scaling down production.
- It points out that the study assumes that continuing ‘business as usual’ emissions will consume the remaining carbon budget by 2030.
- The report notes that the sequestration potential of grassland grazed by pasture-fed livestock is often suggested as offsetting emissions, but on a global level, this potential is limited.
- The document also points out that previous COPs have not included food systems among discussions of mitigation.
Conclusion
The core argument of this briefing is that addressing methane emissions through demand-side measures in the food system is crucial for mitigating climate change. The document emphasizes the urgency of reducing methane emissions from agriculture, particularly from livestock, and highlights the co-benefits of such actions, including improved public health and more sustainable land use. The key takeaway is the necessity of shifting towards plant-based diets and reducing meat consumption as a primary strategy. The document underscores the importance of governmental and international action in promoting these changes. The briefing advocates for the UK Presidency of COP26 to prioritize demand-side measures and integrate food systems into the climate change narrative. It urges policymakers to recognize the significant impact of dietary choices on methane emissions and the potential for leveraging existing private sector momentum to drive change. The document emphasizes that without addressing the emissions from animal agriculture, meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals will be exceptionally challenging. The conclusion strongly suggests that the focus should be on reducing emissions to net zero as urgently as possible. The briefing strongly implies that reducing ruminant production is a most effective way to ensure cumulative longer-term GHG emissions are reduced, and that the action of decreasing ruminant production is one of the most effective ways of ensuring cumulative longer-term GHG emissions are reduced, even if methane emissions are ignored.