Creating A Sustainable Food Future: Synthesis Report

Generated Summary

This report, a synthesis of the World Resources Report’s Creating a Sustainable Food Future, analyzes strategies to meet global food demands by 2050 while addressing environmental concerns and poverty reduction. It employs the GlobAgri-WRR model to assess the potential of various interventions across five courses: reducing demand growth, increasing food production without expanding land, protecting ecosystems, increasing fish supply, and reducing agricultural emissions. The study emphasizes the need for a multifaceted approach, integrating technological innovation with policy changes, and promoting sustainable practices in agriculture. The scope covers global perspectives on how to achieve food security, climate goals, and environmental sustainability in the food system. This comprehensive assessment addresses a series of interconnected challenges by providing insights on improving agricultural productivity, shifting towards sustainable diets, and reducing emissions.

Key Findings & Statistics

• The food gap is estimated to be 7,400 trillion calories, or 56% more crop calories than were produced in 2010.
• The land gap is estimated at 593 million hectares (Mha), nearly twice the size of India.
• The GHG mitigation gap is estimated to be 11 Gt (gigatons).
• Demand for animal-based foods is on course to increase by nearly 70% by 2050.
• Agriculture already uses almost half the world’s vegetated land.
• Agriculture and land-use change generate one-quarter of annual greenhouse gas emissions.
• Consumption of milk and meat is likely to grow by 68%.
• Ruminant meat demand is projected to grow by 88% between 2010 and 2050.
• Ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats) use two-thirds of global agricultural land and contribute roughly half of agriculture’s production-related emissions.
• Ruminant meats (mostly beef) provide only 3 percent of calories in the United States.
• If global consumers shifted 30 percent of their expected consumption of ruminant meat in 2050 to plant-based proteins, the shift would, by itself, close half the GHG mitigation gap and nearly all of the land gap.
• Reducing food loss and waste by 25 percent globally would reduce the food calorie gap by 12 percent, the land use gap by 27 percent, and the GHG mitigation gap by 15 percent.
• If 20% of the world’s energy in 2050 came from harvesting crops, crop residues, grasses, and wood in 2000, it would provide only 20 percent of energy needs in 2050.
• We project fish consumption to rise 58 percent between 2010 and 2050.
• The wild fish catch peaked at 94 million tons in the mid-1990s.
• Agriculture and land-use change emissions are roughly 15 Gt per year in 2050.
• Agricultural production emissions are projected to reach 9 gigatons in the 2050 baseline.
• Achieving an ambitious global average NUE of 71 percent by 2050 would reduce emissions by 600 million tons.
• If sub-Saharan Africa could move toward replacement-level fertility rates by 2050, its population would grow to only 1.8 billion.

Other Important Findings

• The report proposes a menu of options that could allow the world to achieve a sustainable food future by meeting growing demands for food, avoiding deforestation, and reforesting or restoring abandoned and unproductive land—and in ways that help stabilize the climate, promote economic development, and reduce poverty.
• The report emphasizes the need to reduce food loss and waste, shift diets toward healthier and more sustainable options, and avoid competition from bioenergy for food crops and land.
• It also highlights the importance of increasing crop and livestock productivity, improving soil and water management, and adapting to climate change.
• The report also addresses the need to protect and restore natural ecosystems, increase fish supply, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.
• The report identifies the need for cross-cutting policies such as boosting productivity and reducing rural poverty, while also promoting more equitable and secure property rights.
• The report identifies that governments should redirect farm support and attract climate funding.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The full report will be published in the spring of 2019, and further details will be available then.
• It cannot address all issues related to the global food system, such as many ethical, cultural, and socioeconomic factors or remedies for tackling acute food shortages in the short term.
• Future research may pursue quantitative estimates of agricultural freshwater use.
• Some prior analyses overestimate potential crop yield growth, underestimate or even ignore the challenge of pastureland expansion, and “double count” land by assuming that land is available for reforestation or bioenergy without accounting for the world’s growing need to produce more food, protect biodiversity, and maintain existing carbon storage.
• There are constraints in the scope of the potential solutions that can be achieved with technological innovations.
• There are uncertainties about local climate change, indicating a need for broad “no regrets” strategies.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that achieving a sustainable food future, which includes feeding a growing population, fostering development, and mitigating climate change, requires a multifaceted and integrated approach. Productivity gains are identified as critical, along with slowing demand growth and protecting ecosystems. The study underscores that the economic, social, and environmental benefits are interwoven, necessitating policies that promote both technological innovation and equitable practices. The challenge of simultaneously closing the food, land, and GHG mitigation gaps is significant, yet achievable through coordinated efforts across multiple sectors. The study emphasizes that the largest diet-related opportunity lies in limiting the global growth in demand for beef. The emphasis is that governments should work to create a sustainable food future by providing incentives, support for research and development, and promote policies that protect ecosystems. The report also stresses that, reforestation of marginal or abandoned agricultural land should proceed immediately. The report concludes that although the task is complex, a sustainable future is within reach if governments, the private sector, and civil society take action quickly and with conviction. The importance of addressing the challenges of the food system is underscored, as it has broad impacts on human health, economies, and environmental sustainability. The measures proposed can contribute to economic gains, open up opportunities for the poor, and reduce risks of hunger in regions and help contribute to environmental challenges.