Abstract
Household-level food insecurity is one of the largest public health concerns facing millions of people in the United States today. Although recent work has highlighted gaps in food security rates between minority and non-Hispanic white households, little is known about how these households evolve through the overall distribution of food security over time. As such, we employ nonparametric estimators of distributional mobility to household-level data on food security from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999 study. Results suggest that Hispanic and non-Hispanic white households with children are equally mobile in the long run whereas non-Hispanic black households with children tend to be less upwardly mobile and more downwardly mobile in food security status over time.
Generated Summary
This research explores the dynamics of racial food security gaps in the United States, focusing on how households transition through food security over time. Employing nonparametric estimators of distributional mobility, the study analyzes household-level data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999. The aim is to understand the mobility patterns of minority and non-Hispanic white households with children across the food security distribution, evaluating whether racial disparities in food security are persistent or transitory. The study seeks to determine if the mobility patterns differ between groups, leading to varying levels of food security over time. The research delves into the dynamics of food security, examining the movement of households between different states of food security, such as food insecure, marginally food secure, and high food secure, with a particular focus on the long-term implications of these mobility patterns. The study aims to uncover the characteristics that influence the gaps in food security, thereby informing potential policy interventions to address food insecurity disparities. The analysis is based on the USDA’s Core Food Security Module (CFSM) definitions of food security, categorizing households into food insecure, marginally food secure, and high food secure states.
Key Findings & Statistics
- In 2016, 12.3% of U.S. households (15.6 million households) were food insecure.
- Among these, 6.1 million households were classified as being very low food secure (4.9% of U.S. households).
- In 2016, 8% of households with children had food insecure children, with only 0.8% of those households being classified as very low food secure.
- In 2014, these figures were 9.4% and 1.1%, and in 2012, they were 10% and 1.2%, respectively.
- In 2016, 22.5% of households headed by blacks and 18.5% of households headed by Hispanics were food insecure compared to the national average of 12.3%.
- Only 9.3% of households headed by whites were classified as food insecure.
- The food insecurity gap was 13.5 percentage points and 9.2 percentage points between blacks and whites and Hispanics and whites, respectively.
- The average gap in food insecurity over the time period of 2013–2015 averaged 14.2 percentage points for black households versus white households and 11.4 percentage points for Hispanic households versus white households.
- The study sample consisted of 642 non-Hispanic black students, 1210 Hispanic students, and 4970 non-Hispanic white students (for a total of 6822 students).
- In the state-state, 84% of Hispanic households with children would be classified as high food secure (compared to 88% for non-Hispanic white and 62% for non-Hispanic black households with children) while 10% of Hispanic households with children would settle in a state of either low or very low food security (compared to 7% of non-Hispanic white and 19% of non-Hispanic black households with children).
- Non-Hispanic black households, on average, being 7.5 percentage points less likely to move upward and out of the bottom of the food security distribution compared to white households when initially starting out in a state of food insecurity.
- Black households have, on average, a 15.3 percentage point greater probability of falling out of a state of high food security compared to white households conditional on starting out in a state of high food security.
- Black households have an estimated 8 percentage point lower probability of becoming high food secure in the terminal period conditional on being classified as food insecure in the initial period.
- Black households have a 9 percentage point higher likelihood, when averaged across all time periods, of falling out of a state of high food security relative to Hispanic households.
Other Important Findings
- The study finds that Hispanic and non-Hispanic white households with children are equally mobile in the long run, whereas non-Hispanic black households with children tend to be less upwardly mobile and more downwardly mobile in food security status over time.
- The mobility dynamics suggest that there would be very little racial convergence in food security status unless there is a better understanding of how to lift non-Hispanic black households with children out of a state of food insecurity.
- The study reveals that non-Hispanic black households with children tend to have a lower probability of transitioning out of the bottom of the food security distribution while having a higher probability of falling from a state of high food security back into a state of food insecurity.
- Hispanic households with children, when averaged over all time periods, have a lower probability of being entrenched in a state of food insecurity relative to non-Hispanic white households with children.
- Hispanic households with children are more likely to fall out of a state of high food security once achieving such status relative to non-Hispanic white households with children.
- When comparing Hispanic households with children directly with non-Hispanic black households with children, the study finds mobility dynamics similar to what is found when comparing non-Hispanic white households to non-Hispanic black households.
- The analysis of the racial gaps in food security dynamics, distinct from poverty dynamics, is needed to better understand the economic hardship associated with food insecurity.
- The study finds that white households, relative to black households, have a greater probability of remaining entrenched in a state of high food security in some terminal period conditional of being classified as high food secure in some initial period.
- The estimated differences in the probability of remaining classified as high food secure, between black and white households, are negative and statistically significant.
- Black households are disadvantaged, relative to white households, in the extremes of the food security distribution, with a higher probability of getting “stuck” in a state of food insecurity.
- Black households have a much lower probability of traversing upward through the distribution of food security to such an extent of being classified as high food secure in the terminal period.
- Hispanic households, relative to white households, have a higher probability of falling down through the distribution of food insecurity.
- Hispanic-white gaps in the probability of remaining high food secure over time are much smaller compared to the estimated gaps in the likelihood of remaining high food secure between black and white households.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges that the results presented are not intended to reveal causal determinants of the differential in food security dynamics between non-Hispanic white and minority households.
- The study’s focus is on the transition dynamics and does not delve into the underlying causes of the observed disparities.
- The analysis relies on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999, which may have limitations related to the specific time period and the representativeness of the sample.
- The study uses the USDA’s Core Food Security Module (CFSM) to define food security, which may have its own limitations and may not fully capture the complexities of food insecurity.
- The study primarily focuses on black, white, and Hispanic households, and the findings may not be generalizable to other racial or ethnic groups.
- The linear probability model used for estimating conditional mobility gaps has its own statistical limitations.
- The study does not fully address the issue of reverse causality or other potential confounding factors that may influence the observed relationships.
Conclusion
The study’s findings highlight the divergent trajectories of food security among racial groups in the United States, revealing that non-Hispanic black households face significant challenges in achieving and maintaining high food security compared to both white and Hispanic households. The results suggest that black households are more likely to be “stuck” in a state of food insecurity, while also being more prone to falling from a state of high food security. This contrasts with the patterns observed among Hispanic and white households, where mobility patterns appear less divergent. The research underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics of food security to effectively address racial disparities in food access. The study’s analysis of mobility patterns provides valuable insights into the challenges faced by various groups in maintaining food security over time. The long-run implications of these mobility patterns, as demonstrated by the steady-state distributions, suggest that the black-white gap in food security is more persistent, while the Hispanic-white gap may be more influenced by the timing of food security measurements. The study emphasizes that it is more difficult to gauge whether the mobility patterns of Hispanic and white households are divergent over time. The study’s findings regarding the associations between socioeconomic status and mobility gaps suggest that policy interventions should be well-targeted and group-specific. This research contributes to the understanding of food insecurity dynamics and emphasizes the need for a deeper exploration of the causal factors driving these patterns to inform effective policy interventions. This study suggests that non-Hispanic black households with children are the most vulnerable group when compared to both non-Hispanic white and Hispanic households with children, even after controlling for socioeconomic status.