Gaps Between Fruit And Vegetable Production, Demand, And Recommended Consumption At Global And National Levels: An Integrated Modelling Study

Abstract

Background Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050. Methods In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961–2010) and future (2010–50) national consumption levels needed to meet WHO targets (a minimum target of 400 g/person per day or age-specific recommendations of 330–600 g/person per day) using population pyramids; for future consumption, we use projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of global socioeconomic scenarios characterised by varied assumptions on economic and population growth. We then simulate future fruit and vegetable production and demand to 2050 under three such scenarios (SSP1–3) to assess the potential impacts of economic, demographic, and technological change on consumer and producer behaviour. We then explore the potential effects of food waste applying various waste assumptions (0–33% waste). Finally, we apply two policy analysis frameworks (the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder) to assess the current state of public policy designed to achieve healthy diets. Findings Historically, fruit and vegetable availability has consistently been insufficient to supply recommended consumption levels. By 2015, 81 countries representing 55% of the global population had average fruit and vegetable availability above WHO’s minimum target. Under more stringent age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability. Although economic growth will help to increase fruit and vegetable availability in the future, particularly in lower-income countries, this alone will be insufficient. Even under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios (excluding food waste), many countries fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet even the minimum recommended target. Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular region of concern, with projections suggesting, by 2050, between 0.8 and 1.9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day. Food waste is a serious obstacle that could erode projected gains. Assuming 33% waste and socioeconomic trends similar to historical patterns, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people living in countries with insufficient supply of fruits and vegetables by 1.5 billion compared with a zero waste scenario. Interpretation Increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is an important component of a shift towards healthier and more sustainable diets. Economic modelling suggests that even under optimistic socioeconomic scenarios future supply will be insufficient to achieve recommended levels in many countries. Consequently, systematic public policy targeting the constraints to producing and consuming fruits and vegetables will be needed. This will require a portfolio of interventions and investments that focus on increasing fruit and vegetable production, developing technologies and practices to reduce waste without increasing the consumer cost, and increasing existing efforts to educate consumers on healthy diets.

Generated Summary

This study uses the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to analyze the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels in over 150 countries from 1961 to 2050. The study explores how economic, demographic, and technological changes affect consumer and producer behavior. The researchers also assess the impact of food waste and analyze current public policies to improve healthy diets. The methodology involves scenario analysis using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to project fruit and vegetable availability under various assumptions, economic modeling to simulate the agricultural system, and incorporating food waste assumptions. The study defines recommended consumption levels based on WHO targets and estimates fruit and vegetable availability using FAO data and population statistics. It also reviews public policies using the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder.

Key Findings & Statistics

• In 1965, only 29 countries, representing 17% of the global population, met the 400 g/person per day target for fruit and vegetable availability.
• By 2015, this number increased to 81 countries, covering 55% of the global population.
• Under age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries, representing 36% of the global population, had adequate availability by 2015.
• Under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios, many countries still fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet the minimum recommended target.
• By 2050, between 0.8 and 1.9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Assuming 33% waste, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people with insufficient fruit and vegetable supply by 1.5 billion.
• In 2050, the global average fruit and vegetable availability varies from 608 g/person per day (SSP3) to 732 g/person per day (SSP2) and 862 g/person per day (SSP1).
• Gains from future economic development are concentrated in developing regions.
• Under a 33% waste scenario by 2050, only 19 countries (3.6 billion people) would have sufficient fruit and vegetable availability.
• By 2050, four regions would continue to have average availability below recommended levels.
• Of the 764 policies in the WCRF’s NOURISHING database, only 168 specifically target fruit and vegetable consumption.

Other Important Findings

• Economic growth will help increase fruit and vegetable availability, particularly in lower-income countries, but will be insufficient on its own.
• Food waste is a serious obstacle to achieving recommended consumption levels.
• The study highlights the need for public policies targeting constraints in producing and consuming fruits and vegetables.
• Increasing fruit and vegetable production, developing technologies to reduce waste, and educating consumers are key areas for intervention.
• The study indicates that in the future, the number of countries with insufficient fruit and vegetable supplies could increase.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is a region of particular concern regarding insufficient fruit and vegetable availability.
• Economic modeling suggests that even under optimistic scenarios, future supply will be insufficient to meet recommended levels in many countries.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The study acknowledges that future fruit and vegetable availability involves substantial uncertainty.
• The study’s projections of future fruit and vegetable availability are somewhat crude due to the scarcity of global data on waste.
• The study relies on aggregated national statistics (FAOSTAT) and simulates complex economic behavior in a stylized way.
• IMPACT represents production in terms of homogeneous commodities and simulates demand using a single representative consumer for each country.
• The global and national statistics used to build and calibrate these models are limited, with data often reported in aggregate.
• Downscaling the implications of global scenarios to assess specific impacts on different types of producers and consumers is an area for future research.
• The study does not include other drivers that are important to global food security, such as extreme events and climate change.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes that increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is a crucial component of shifting towards healthier and more sustainable diets. The study’s findings reveal that even under optimistic socioeconomic scenarios, the current supply of fruits and vegetables will likely be insufficient to meet recommended levels in numerous countries. This underscores the urgent need for systematic public policies targeting the constraints to producing and consuming fruits and vegetables. Such policies should focus on increasing fruit and vegetable production, developing technologies and practices to reduce waste, and enhancing consumer education efforts. The authors suggest that targeted fiscal policies, like price supports, and procurement policies, should be considered to complement public awareness campaigns. The research points to a critical need for concentrated efforts across the food system, including reorienting investments and interventions to prioritize fruits and vegetables. The study highlights that economic growth alone is unlikely to ensure sufficient supply, especially when considering food waste. The projections indicate that policies targeting poverty and economic growth could have co-benefits in spurring demand and access to fruits and vegetables in lower-income countries. The study’s findings underscore the importance of shifting the focus from food quantity to dietary quality and health, and environmental outcomes, as well as the need for more research on food waste and its impact on food value chains. The authors highlight the scarcity of policies that address fruit and vegetable consumption, and emphasize the need for more comprehensive and forceful policy interventions to drive meaningful changes in consumer behavior.