Abstract
Over the past 50 years, food systems worldwide have shifted from predominantly rural to industrialized and consolidated systems, with impacts on diets, nutrition and health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. We explore the potential for sustainable and equitable food system transformation (ideal state of change) by comparing countries at different stages of food system transition (changes) using food system typologies. Historically, incomes have risen faster than food prices as countries have industrialized, enabling a simultaneous increase in the supply and affordability of many nutritious foods. These shifts are illustrated across five food system typologies, from rural and traditional to industrial and consolidated. Evolving rural economies, urbanization and changes in food value chains have accompanied these transitions, leading to changes in land distribution, a smaller share of agri-food system workers in the economy and changes in diets. We show that the affordability of a recommended diet has improved over time, but food systems of all types are falling short of delivering optimal nutrition and health outcomes, environmental sustainability, and inclusion and equity for all. Six ‘outlier’ case studies (Tajikistan, Egypt, Albania, Ecuador, Bolivia and the United States of America) illustrate broad trends, trade-offs and deviations. With the integrated view afforded by typologies, we consider how sustainable transitions can be achieved going forward.
Generated Summary
This journal article explores the global food systems transitions over the past 50 years, examining their impact on diets, nutrition, health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. The study employs a food system typology to compare countries at different stages of transition, from rural and traditional to industrial and consolidated systems. The research investigates how these transitions have influenced the affordability of diets, while also assessing the outcomes related to nutrition, environmental health, inclusion, and equity. The methodology involves analyzing data from 155 countries, representing 97% of the world’s population, to understand how food systems have historically transitioned and to identify potential implications for sustainable and equitable food system transformation. The study uses a series of analyses to demonstrate how food systems have transitioned, and includes case studies of outlier countries to illustrate broader trends, trade-offs, and deviations.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The percentage of the population able to afford a nutritious diet increases from a median of 15% in countries with rural and informal food systems to nearly 100% in countries with industrial and consolidated food systems (Fig. 1).
- Nearly all residents of industrialized countries and a median of 82% in countries with emerging and diversifying food systems are able to afford a nutritious diet.
- The percentage of the population living below the lowest international poverty line of US$1.90 per day ranges from less than 20% in some countries (Tajikistan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Pakistan) to over 70% in others (Madagascar).
- The percentage of the population below US$5.50 per day ranges from near zero (Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, and the Czech Republic) to over 25% (Argentina) in the industrial and consolidated group.
- In countries with rural and traditional food systems, the per capita supply of fish is the lowest.
- Globally, animal-source foods (dairy, meat, eggs, and fish) contribute to 45% of the protein supply (Supplementary Fig. 3).
- In countries with industrial and consolidated food systems, 62% of the protein supply comes from animal-source food, compared with 21% among countries with rural and traditional food systems.
- In Tajikistan, 72% of the population resides in rural areas.
- In Egypt, only 16% of the population can afford a healthy diet.
- In Bolivia, 75% of households can afford a recommended diet compared with the median of 67% for other countries within the same food system typology (Fig. 1).
- In the United States, a recommended diet is affordable for 98.3% of the population (Fig. 1).
- US agriculture employs less than 1% of the population, with 75% of those being Latino.
- The contribution of land use change and production practices to GHG emissions is highest in countries with rural and traditional food systems.
- In the United States, the Gini coefficient is 41.4, compared with the median value of 32.4 for other countries with industrial and consolidated food systems.
- The median percentage of deaths attributed to dietary risk factors increases from 5.7% in countries with rural and traditional food systems to 16% in countries with modernizing and formalizing food systems.
- The study estimates that the US food system’s human health and environmental externalities (impacts on external actors from the food system that are not incorporated into the cost) are as much as $2.1 trillion.
Other Important Findings
- Food systems have enabled sufficient food production to keep pace with population growth while reducing famines, but have also led to trade-offs and challenges, particularly related to climate change, ecosystem resilience, and inequity.
- Historically, incomes have risen faster than food prices, enabling increased supply and affordability of nutritious foods.
- The study identifies five food system typologies: rural and traditional, informal and expanding, emerging and diversifying, modernizing and formalizing, and industrial and consolidated.
- The typology does not suggest a linear path but provides a snapshot in time, grouping countries by shared characteristics.
- The affordability of a recommended diet has improved over time, but food systems of all types are falling short of delivering optimal nutrition and health outcomes, environmental sustainability, and inclusion and equity for all.
- Changes in land distribution, a smaller share of agri-food system workers in the economy, and changes in diets have accompanied food system transitions.
- The research found that food prices overall are the highest in the industrialized food systems.
- The per capita supply of nutritious food groups increases across the typology, but patterns vary by food group.
- There is a positive linear relationship for some food groups, particularly animal proteins.
- With a declining workforce in agriculture, landholdings tend to become more consolidated.
- Technology improvements increase land productivity and facilitate specialization that increases farm revenues.
- The share of employment in agriculture decreases as the food system transitions, reflecting a decline in the agricultural workforce.
- Urbanization, and changes in employment demographics have increased demand for convenience foods.
- The study emphasizes that addressing issues of equity within and beyond food systems requires explicit attention in each context.
- The case of Albania shows that the country has a modernizing and formalizing food system but a much larger share of the population employed in the food system, with small farms still predominating.
- Ecuador’s case shows that there are many more wage jobs in agriculture, but agricultural jobs in Ecuador are of higher quality than in most other places.
- The United States offers a perspective on long-term food system transitions, where high supply and affordability have not translated to positive health and environmental outcomes.
- Urbanization will continue to be a major driver of food systems changes.
- The median percentage of deaths attributed to dietary risk factors increases from 5.7% in countries with rural and traditional food systems to 16% in countries with modernizing and formalizing food systems.
- In general terms, land-use change and production practices constitute the primary sources of GHG emissions.
- In countries with rural and traditional food systems (in line with agricultural extensification), land-use change is the key source of emissions.
- As countries industrialize, they use more energy, transport, processing and packaging throughout the value chain, which translates to higher emissions from these sources.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study acknowledges that the food system typology does not presume a linear path of transition.
- The study’s indicators do not reflect the totality of food systems and are in part a reflection of data availability.
- The analysis focuses on food group proportionality and does not consider differences in food quality.
- The study notes that the food system typology at the national level does not capture heterogeneity within countries.
- The study indicates that the available data on employment in the downstream value chain segments of food systems are not sufficiently disaggregated.
Conclusion
The study concludes that while food systems have largely succeeded in making sufficient calories available at an affordable cost, the objectives of minimizing environmental and climate change consequences and improving nutrition and health outcomes remain unmet. The transition towards more sustainable food systems requires addressing these challenges directly and setting a global agenda with equity, nutrition, and the environment at its core. The analysis emphasizes the need to consider the historical trends and processes that have shaped current food systems. The future of food systems will likely exhibit unique and heterogeneous patterns of transition. The study highlights the importance of effective policies such as safety nets, school feeding programs, equitable land distribution, and creating employment that provides increasing incomes relative to food prices. It also underscores that reducing the consumption of unhealthy diets and incentivizing sustainable production practices are key to meeting both health and environmental objectives. The research suggests that the pursuit of sufficient calories at an affordable cost has been largely successful, but this success has come with substantial costs, trade-offs, and compromises. The vast majority of people living in rural and traditional countries, and over three billion people globally, cannot afford a nutritious diet. Moreover, affordability has not always translated to accessibility or actual consumption of a healthy diet. Hunger and poverty are on the rise, and obesity and diet-related diseases are rising as well. Inequality is still rampant and unattended. Environmental degradation has increased beyond safe limits by many metrics, and climate change is leading us towards a major catastrophe. The study emphasizes that addressing issues of equity within (and beyond) food systems and implications for the access to and affordability of food require explicit attention in each context. The historical challenges encountered by the lagging latecomers to structural transformation, and the more challenging context they face today, suggest that their processes of structural transformation—and thus food system transformation—may not follow the same pattern as that of countries further along in the transformation process. The research indicates that the very process of food system transitions incurred by countries further along with structural transformation and the negative environmental and nutritional outcomes they engendered has changed the parameters of success for future transitions. This, coupled with variation in performance across countries within the five categories of the typology, suggests that we will see unique and heterogeneous patterns of food system transition.