Abstract
Introduction Rapid increases in the trade of global red and processed meat impede international efforts toward sustainable diets by increasing meat consumption. However, little research has examined cross-country variations in diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) because of meat trade. We aimed to examine the impact of red and processed meat trade on diet-related NCDs and to identify which countries are particularly vulnerable to diet-related NCDs due to red and processed meat trade. Methods By selecting 14 red meat and six processed meat items, we investigated bilateral meat trade flows across 154 countries. Then, we integrated health data and information on red and processed meat trade to quantify the country-specific burden of diet-related NCDs attributable to the meat trade using a comparative risk assessment framework. Results Results show that global increases in red and processed meat trade contributed to the abrupt increase of diet-related NCDs, and the attributable burden of diet-related NCDs had large geographical variations among countries. We also identified responsible exporting countries that increase diet-related NCD risks in importing countries. Over the period from 1993 to 2018, island countries in the Caribbean and Oceania were particularly vulnerable to diet-related NCD incidents and mortality due to large meat imports. In addition, countries in Northern and Eastern Europe have exceedingly increased attributable death and disability-adjusted life year rates via meat imports. Conclusion Our findings suggest that both exporters and importers must urgently undertake cross-sectoral actions to reduce the meat trade’s health impacts. To prevent unintended health consequences due to red and processed meat trade, future interventions need to integrate health policies with agricultural and trade policies by cooperating with both responsible exporting and importing countries.
Generated Summary
This research investigates the impact of red and processed meat trade on diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and identifies vulnerable countries. Using a comparative risk assessment framework, the study analyzes bilateral meat trade flows across 154 countries, integrating health data and meat trade information to quantify the country-specific burden of diet-related NCDs attributable to meat trade. The methodology involves selecting 14 red meat and 6 processed meat items to examine trade flows. Health data and meat trade information were integrated to quantify the burden of diet-related NCDs, utilizing a comparative risk assessment framework. The study focuses on changes in red and processed meat trade and their influence on three chronic diet-related NCDs: colorectal cancer, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and ischaemic heart disease. The research aims to understand the geographical variations in diet-related NCD risks due to meat trade and to identify countries particularly susceptible to these risks. The findings contribute to understanding the global impact of meat trade on public health, emphasizing the need for interventions that integrate health, agricultural, and trade policies.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The global red and processed meat trade increased by 148.4% from 10.0 Mt in 1993-1995 to 24.8 Mt in 2016-2018.
- The number of net exporting countries decreased from 33 in 1993-1995 to 26 in 2016-2018, while net importing countries increased from 121 to 128.
- Developed countries in Europe accounted for 55.0% and 50.6% of total red and processed meat exports in 1993-1995 and 2016-2018, respectively.
- In 2016-2018, approximately 70.6% and 4.4% of the exports went to other developed and developing countries in Europe, respectively.
- The USA accounted for about 11.7% (1.2 Mt) in 1993–1995 and 14.5% (3.6 Mt) in 2016–2018 of global meat exports.
- Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay accounted for 4.9% (0.5 Mt) of global meat exports in 1993–1995, and their proportion rapidly increased to 9.7% (2.4 Mt) in 2016–2018.
- Developing countries increased their meat imports by 342.5% from 2.0 Mt (20.1% of global meat trade) in 1993–1995 to 8.9 Mt (35.8%) in 2016–2018, while developed countries increased 99.6% of meat imports from 8.0 Mt in 1993–1995 to 15.9 Mt in 2016–2018.
- Worldwide, the increases in red and processed meat consumption with trade accounted for 10,898 attributable deaths (95% CI 2 737 to 19 906) in 2016–2018, which increased 74.6% from 1993 to 1995.
- Global attributable DALYs also increased 89.9% from 165,008 DALYs (95% CI 49 156 to 287 714) in 1993-1995 to 313,432 DALYs (95% CI 104 891 to 546 741) in 2016–2018.
- In 2016–2018, approximately 68% and 66% of the attributable deaths and DALYs were in developed countries, while developing countries accounted for about 32% and 35% of the attributable deaths and DALYs, respectively.
- From 1993 to 2018, global meat trade contributed to a 55.0% and 71.2% increase in the attributable deaths and DALYs in developed countries, while developing countries increased 137.3% and 140.0% in attributable deaths and DALYs, respectively.
- In 2016-2018, meat trade in ten listed countries accounted for more than 7.4% of all deaths attributable to diets high in both red and processed meat (table 1).
- From 2016 to 2018, meat trade in these ten listed countries accounted for more than 8.6% of all DALYS attributable to diets high in both red and processed meat (table 1).
Other Important Findings
- The study identified that island countries in the Caribbean and Oceania are particularly vulnerable to diet-related NCDs due to large meat imports.
- Countries in Northern and Eastern Europe showed a significant increase in attributable death and DALY rates via meat imports.
- The research revealed that the health impacts of red and processed meat trade have risen substantially in Northern and Eastern European countries, as well as island countries in the Caribbean and Oceania.
- The study also noted that developing countries are increasingly acting as net importers while developed countries are net exporters.
- Countries such as Slovakia, Lithuania, and Latvia experienced rapid increases in attributable death and DALY rates due to meat trade, partially due to their membership in the European Union and regional trade agreements that accelerated meat imports.
- The study found that 34 countries experienced decreases in both attributable death and DALY rates through trade from 1993–1995 to 2016–2018, but many of these countries still saw an increase in the absolute number of diet-related NCD deaths and DALYs with increased meat consumption.
- The analysis highlighted the role of major exporting partners, such as Brazil and Germany, in increasing health risks in importing countries.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The study’s results may underestimate diet-related NCD risks via meat trade because it only included 20 major red and processed meat items.
- The FAO trade matrix data did not capture re-exporting processes, potentially affecting the accuracy of trade-related risk assessments in countries like the Netherlands and Singapore.
- The dynamic changes in domestic red and processed meat production in relation to trade were not identified.
- The study’s comparative risk assessments could not determine the country-specific characteristics that influence the amounts of meat trade and thus diet-related NCDs.
- The research acknowledges that different health and trade policies between countries may impact meat consumption and, consequently, diet-related NCDs, necessitating further investigation with comprehensive datasets.
Conclusion
The research emphasizes that the global increase in red and processed meat trade contributes to a rise in diet-related NCDs, with significant geographical variations across countries. The study’s findings indicate that cross-sectoral actions are urgently needed to address the health impacts of meat trade. “To prevent unintended health consequences due to red and processed meat trade, future interventions need to urgently integrate health policies with agricultural and trade policies by cooperating between responsible exporting and importing countries.” The research highlights the need for national and international efforts to consider the impacts of red and processed meat trade on diet-related NCDs. This includes the implementation of policies promoting less dependence on red and processed meat imports, particularly in vulnerable countries. The study underscores the importance of engaging all sectors, including health, production, and trade, to transform global meat trade policies. It points out the need to strengthen collaborations among organizations like the World Trade Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, and the World Health Organization. Furthermore, the study suggests that national and regional policies must address health issues related to diet-related NCDs, including the consideration of carbon border taxes on meat products and the reduction of emissions from transportation. The insights from this study provide a valuable foundation for implementing healthy diets in the context of globalized meat trade, advocating for sustainable approaches that balance human health and environmental sustainability.