Abstract
Transforming the world’s food and land use systems is necessary to achieve the targets for climate and sustainable development set out in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The Food and Land Use Coalition (FOLU) was launched in 2017 to catalyse and speed up this transformation. FOLU’s work divides between (i) making the strategic case for rapid change, (ii) supporting countries with their food and land use planning, policy and market redesign, (iii) empowering diverse change leaders across public, private and civil society sectors, (iv) developing evidence-based transformation pathways and (v) accelerating shifts throughout the private sector.
Generated Summary
This report, a product of the Food and Land Use Coalition (FOLU), presents a comprehensive framework for transforming food and land use systems globally. It focuses on ten critical transitions designed to address climate change, protect biodiversity, ensure healthier diets, improve food security, and create more inclusive rural economies. The study employs modeling, particularly using the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis’ (IIASA) Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), to construct two main scenarios: a “Current Trends” scenario projecting the continuation of existing trends, and a “Better Futures” scenario outlining the potential outcomes of implementing the ten critical transitions. The research underscores the need for a holistic approach, emphasizing the interdependencies of the transitions and the importance of action from governments, businesses, financial institutions, civil society, and international bodies. The goal is to achieve food security for a growing global population by 2050 while simultaneously addressing climate, biodiversity, health, and poverty challenges. The report is a “consultation report” designed to trigger action and encourage further discussion and societal change.
Key Findings & Statistics
- The report estimates that the global food and land use systems generate hidden costs of approximately $12 trillion per year, which is greater than the market value of the global food system of about $10 trillion.
- Implementing the ten critical transitions could lead to a societal return of more than 15 times the related investment cost.
- The report estimates that annual additional investment requirements to 2030 would be between $300-$350 billion.
- The business opportunity by 2030 is estimated at $4.5 trillion annually for businesses associated with the ten critical transitions.
- The economic prize by 2030 is projected at $5.7 trillion, and by 2050, it could reach $10.5 trillion.
- A 25 percent reduction in food loss and waste could lead to significant environmental, health, inclusion, and food security benefits.
- If the current trends continue, the likelihood of simultaneous production shocks affecting more than ten percent of production in the top four maize-exporting countries rises from close to zero to 86 percent in a 4-degrees Celsius warming scenario.
- The environmental costs of the food and land use system are estimated at $3+ trillion a year.
- The largest hidden system costs arise from the impact of malnutrition on human health.
- The total economic cost to human health associated with global food and land use systems is estimated at $6.6 trillion and set to rise to almost $10 trillion by 2050.
- The production of animal proteins is the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly cattle production.
- It is estimated that agriculture and land-use change are responsible for just under one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, increasing to one-third when considering the total food value chains.
- Soil degradation is also a huge problem, with half of the planet’s topsoil lost in the past 150 years.
- In 2018 alone, an area of primary tropical forest the size of Belgium was lost.
- In the Better Futures scenario, there is a potential shift of more than 1.5 billion hectares of land away from agriculture by 2050.
- In the Better Futures scenario, diet-related premature mortality could be reduced by more than half by 2050.
- The economic gains to society from reducing the current “hidden costs” of food and land use systems would sum up to $5.7 trillion annually by 2030 and $10.5 trillion annually by 2050.
- Rural incomes could grow twice as fast over the Current Trends scenario, and over 120 million more decent jobs could be created in the countryside.
- In low-income countries, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 25% of gross domestic product (GDP), 40% of net exports, and over 60% of employment.
- Food and land use systems account for approximately 10% of the global economy.
- Over the past 20 years, trade in agricultural products has more than tripled to reach $1.33 trillion.
- Just four crops (wheat, rice, corn, and potatoes) account for around 60% of calories consumed by humans.
- About 1.5 billion people are deficient in micronutrients.
- 1 out of 5 children under the age of five are stunted.
- Some 33 percent of women of reproductive age are affected by anaemia.
- Globally, about 1.5 billion people are deficient in micronutrients.
- The global cost of undernutrition is estimated at $1.8 trillion a year.
- Some two billion people are overweight, of whom 679 million are obese.
- The economic cost of this development is currently estimated at $2.7 trillion a year.
- Roughly 25% of outdoor air pollution deaths are attributable to agricultural emissions and particulates, at a cost of $1.3 trillion a year to human health.
- Premature deaths from food-related anti-microbial resistance (AMR) are estimated to cost the global economy over $300 billion a year. By 2050, food-related AMR could cause upwards of 100 million deaths a year.
- Overexploitation of ocean fisheries has resulted in 33% of fish stocks being critically overfished.
- It is estimated that around 90% of smallholder farmers do not have access to formal finance.
- Of the over $700 billion in public support, about $530 billion is paid in agricultural support to farmers worldwide each year.
Other Important Findings
- The report identifies ten critical transitions needed to transform food and land use systems, including promoting healthy diets, scaling productive and regenerative agriculture, protecting and restoring nature, securing a healthy and productive ocean, investing in diversified sources of protein, reducing food loss and waste, building local loops and linkages, harnessing the digital revolution, delivering stronger rural livelihoods, and improving gender equality and accelerating the demographic transition.
- The most significant environmental benefits involve the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with a potential net-zero contribution by 2050.
- Better Futures would have a major impact on health, as deaths related to high body mass index could be reduced to around 5.6 million by 2050.
- There is a business opportunity of $4.5 trillion associated with the ten critical transitions in 2030.
- Digital tools can help consumers to make better informed purchasing decisions.
- To achieve the global transition to a sustainable ocean, overfishing and illegal fishing needs to end and sustainable aquaculture is a must.
- The need for international cooperation is likely to increase in order to face higher frequency of climate-related events.
- Rural livelihoods will be strengthened due to improvements in farming productivity, diversified income, value-adding activities and enhanced market access.
- The report recommended creating a Global Alliance Against Environmental Crime.
- The shift in dietary patterns, combined with growing transparency along value chains, is likely to expand markets for more natural food.
- Better Futures includes a significant shift in the pattern of food consumption.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The modeling used in the report has limitations. The Current Trends scenario might understate the risks from climate change, and the Better Futures scenario may oversimplify the complex nature of transitions, leading to an optimistic view. Also, the models cannot fully capture the benefits of diversity in crops or ecosystems.
- The scenarios are based on the scaling-up of existing technologies, while in many areas there are signs that entirely disruptive change is within reach.
- The models do not capture many of the institutional or social factors that can drive or hinder changes to food systems, such as the impact of shorter supply chains.
- The research has not considered the impact of the ten critical transitions on health outcomes or all environmental impacts.
Conclusion
The report urgently calls for a comprehensive transformation of food and land use systems to address the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, public health crises, and rural poverty. The transformation programme, centered on the ten critical transitions, provides a roadmap to deliver environmental, health, and inclusion benefits while strengthening food security. The report emphasizes the need for immediate action from governments, businesses, investors, international bodies, and civil society. Governments are urged to establish clear, ambitious targets, integrate planning, and strengthen enforcement. Businesses are called upon to adopt science-based targets, promote transparency, and prioritize sustainable supply chains. This research and proposed measures acknowledge that the rules governing the food and land use system are, in general, stacked against sustainable practices and propose to address these systemic problems with equally large scale initiatives. The report stresses the urgency of making food and land use systems a top priority, emphasizing the need to act within the next ten years to prevent the exacerbation of existing risks. “Do. Or do not. There is no try.”