How Different Covid-19 Recovery Paths Affect Human Health, Environmental Sustainability, And Food Affordability: A Modelling Study

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic arrived at a time of faltering global poverty reduction and increasing levels of diet-related diseases, both of which have a strong link to poor outcomes for those with COVID-19. Governments responded to the pandemic by placing unprecedented restrictions on internal and external movements, which have resulted in an economic contraction. In response to the economic shock, G20 governments have committed to providing US$14 trillion stimuli to support economic recovery. We aimed to assess the impact of different COVID-19 recovery paths on human health, environmental sustainability, and food sustainability.

Generated Summary

This study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, employs a scenario-based modeling approach to assess the impact of different COVID-19 recovery paths on the environment, global health, and food affordability. The research utilizes the LandSyMM model, a global gridded land use change model, to simulate outcomes across four scenarios, which represent varying pandemic severities and recovery modes. The scenarios analyze the effects of policy measures promoting healthier diets, including the supply and demand for food, environmental outcomes, and human health outcomes. The study runs from 2019 to 2060, incorporating future population growth and economic development projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. The research quantifies outcomes from more societally cooperative pandemic responses that result in reduced trade barriers and improved technological development against less cooperative responses. The study also assesses the impact of changing to healthier dietary preferences using the EAT-Lancet diet.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Repeated pandemic shocks in scenarios focused on economic recovery could trigger an additional 778 deaths per million in 2060, while a recovery path including dietary transition towards healthier diets could prevent 2583 premature deaths per million in 2060.
• Transitioning to healthier diets also reduces nitrogen fertilizer use by 40 million tonnes and irrigation water by 400 km³ compared with no dietary change in 2060.
• The scenario with dietary transition increases the affordability of the average diet.
• The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is most visible in low-income countries.
• In the NN scenario (2060 nitrogen use increase), SC: 6.45 million tonnes (Mt), NN: 46.05 Mt, FF: 27.8 Mt, BLP: 10.2 Mt; 2060 irrigation use increase, SC: 200 km³, NN: 630 km³, FF: 433 km³, BLP: 250 km³.
• The percentage of income spent on food budget decreases in all scenarios and all income levels.
• The most significant reduction is in low-income countries, where the percentage spent decreases from 60% in 2019 to 18% in 2060.

Other Important Findings

• The study found that the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is most visible in low-income countries, where a reduction in growth projections makes a greater difference to the affordability of a basic diet.
• A change in dietary preferences is most impactful in reducing mortality and the burden of disease when income levels are high. At lower income, a transition towards lower meat consumption reduces undernourishment and diet-related mortality.
• The research indicates that the scenarios that included saturation consumption levels based on historical trends (NN and FF) result in an increase of prevalence by 10–20% in obesity.
• The scenario with dietary transition (SC and BLP) is associated with the lowest increase in cropland and pasture area, and the lowest loss of natural area, with the greatest loss of natural land in the NN scenario.
• In all scenarios, a loss of natural land is observed in the tropics and an increase of natural land (agricultural land abandonment) in more temperate regions.
• The study also highlights that the areas with the greatest loss of natural land are tropical low-income and middle-income regions, such as central Africa and South America, which have the greatest levels of biodiversity.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The study acknowledges that the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has been estimated at 1-6-times higher than the reported mortality data implemented in this study.
• There is large uncertainty in the predictions of the impact of the pandemic on population figures.
• The LandSyMM model simulates agricultural production to a greater level of detail than how it accounts for the supply system.
• The grouping of pulses and oil crops in the PLUMv2 demand system made it impossible to increase pulses in the healthier diets without also increasing the demand for oil crops.
• The study’s analysis considers the impact of four scenarios, but it leaves open how these scenarios might materialise in practice.
• The improvements shown in this study require strong incentives to improve diets through a range of policy levers.
• More data on the effect of diet on disease severity is necessary to consider the impact of the changes in diet on mortality from COVID-19, or similar pandemics.

Conclusion

The study’s findings demonstrate that the recovery paths chosen in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will profoundly impact the environment, global health, and food affordability. The modeling analysis highlights that governmental decisions on economic recovery significantly influence environmental sustainability, public health outcomes, and the affordability of diets. The research indicates that scenarios promoting healthier diets could mitigate the negative impacts of the food system on the environment, reduce diet-related deaths, and increase food affordability. The study emphasizes the urgency of addressing sustainable development issues within the global food system to reduce environmental degradation, decrease the burden of disease caused by malnutrition and poor diets, and improve food affordability. The unprecedented economic shock due to the pandemic created a unique opportunity for significant governmental support, estimated at $14 trillion, which could facilitate a shift towards a healthier and more sustainable future within the planetary boundaries. The study suggests that bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control, especially in low-income countries already facing malnutrition, is essential to prevent further economic decline. For middle-income and high-income countries, the focus on implementing recovery strategies that prioritize healthier diets and international cooperation is crucial for achieving a more sustainable food system. The study also notes the importance of addressing the limitations to ensure that the chosen scenarios and policies have the desired effect, and thus make a long-term impact for the future of global health.