Part I: Animal-sourced Food Consumption And Canada’s Emissions Targets

Generated Summary

This report, prepared for World Animal Protection Canada, investigates the role of animal agriculture in achieving Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets of a 40-45% reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The study utilizes the gTech energy-economy model developed by Navius Research Inc. to simulate the effects of energy and climate policy on technology adoption, energy use, GHG emissions, and the economy. The research explores three scenarios with varying levels of future animal food consumption to simulate changes in meat and dairy consumption over time, considering factors such as the substitution of plant-based alternatives, the cost of these alternatives, and consumer willingness to substitute. The analysis aims to answer questions about the impact of shifting consumer food consumption preferences on Canada’s emissions and the associated costs of achieving the emissions targets.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Canada’s agriculture sector currently accounts for about 12% of Canada’s emissions, with animal agriculture (excluding feed and fertilizer) representing 5% of total emissions.
• The agriculture sector’s contribution to emissions is projected to increase, as population and food consumption grow while emissions from other sectors decline.
• The study simulates two policy scenarios: current policy and target policy (cap on emissions at Canada’s 2030 emissions target and net-zero emissions in 2050).
• Three different levels of meat and dairy consumption are simulated: low, medium, and high, representing a sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in future levels of animal product consumption.
• In the low animal consumption scenario, consumption of meat and dairy declines by 84% from current levels by 2050.
• In the medium and high animal consumption scenarios, meat and dairy consumption decline by 51% and 20% from current levels by 2050, respectively.
• In the low animal consumption scenario, agricultural emissions are 29% lower in 2050 relative to the high animal consumption scenario.
• The high emissions intensity of animal agriculture is primarily driven by a reduction in beef cattle production.
• The compliance cost to achieve Canada’s net-zero emissions target could be $12.5 billion lower in 2050 in the low animal consumption scenario relative to the high animal consumption scenario.
• If Canada’s future animal consumption is in line with the low animal consumption scenario, the shadow carbon price is 11% lower in 2030 and 4% lower in 2050.
• In 2020, meat alternatives made up 1.4% of meat product demand and dairy alternatives made up 15% of dairy product demand.
• In the low animal consumption scenario, the share of meat and dairy consumption that is met by substitutes increases significantly from 2020 to 2050.

Other Important Findings

• Declines in animal consumption are primarily driven by reductions in meat consumption, specifically beef.
• Animal consumption is replaced by increased consumption of plant-based foods, including meat and dairy alternatives, fruits, vegetables, grains, and legumes.
• In the low animal consumption scenario, consumption of plant-based foods increases to replace animal foods, increasing from 43% of current food consumption to 91% in 2050.
• Agricultural emissions decline in all target scenarios in response to net-zero climate policy.
• If Canada follows a low animal consumption path, emissions from agriculture could be reduced by 13.5 Mt in 2030 under current policy relative to a high animal consumption path. This corresponds to a reduction in agricultural emissions of 19.2 Mt in 2050.
• In all target scenarios simulated, Canada’s economy continues to grow at a similar rate out to 2050.
• Scenarios in which future animal consumption is lower lead to lower costs for Canada’s economy to achieve its climate targets.
• Scenarios in which future animal consumption is lower also lead to lower costs for Canada’s agriculture sector to comply with climate policy.
• Agricultural GDP remains similar between all three animal consumption scenarios out to 2050.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The gTech model simplifies representations of reality, and Navius’ tools do not account for every dynamic that will influence technological change.
• Household and firm decisions are influenced by many factors that cannot be fully captured.
• The inherent limitation of energy-economy forecasting is that projections of the future will differ from what ultimately transpires.
• The assumptions used to parameterize the models are subject to uncertainty, including oil prices and improvements in labor productivity.
• The analysis focuses primarily on greenhouse gas emissions and does not explore other environmental implications of shifting food consumption.

Conclusion

The study concludes that shifting towards plant-based diets in Canada offers a pathway to reduce agricultural emissions and lower the costs associated with achieving climate targets. The key finding is that reducing animal food consumption could significantly lower GHG emissions from the agricultural sector, contributing to Canada’s overall emissions reduction goals. If future animal consumption aligns with the low animal consumption scenario, Canada may achieve substantial emissions reductions by 2030 and 2050, potentially closing the gap between current policies and emission targets. The economic implications are also significant: a shift towards plant-based consumption could reduce the costs of policy compliance for both the economy and the agriculture sector, while maintaining economic growth. Further, the research suggests that the agriculture sector could adapt to the changing demand by shifting production towards plant-based alternatives. Policy recommendations emphasize the potential of government actions to accelerate this transition, including the extension of the carbon tax, agricultural subsidies, and moratorium on new animal operations. This policy alignment can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce costs, and create a better environment. These potential policies could support a future with reduced emissions. The document also acknowledges a growing market, and emphasizes the importance of tracking all emissions associated with animal agriculture, including those related to feed production. The importance of diet modifications to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, there is further recognition of the fact that changing the diets of Canadians could also have a beneficial impact on land usage, water, and biodiversity, which is not currently accounted for within the modelling.