Rethinking Food Security For The Twenty-first Century

Generated Summary

This article, “Rethinking Food Security for the Twenty-First Century,” examines the diminishing concerns about food security in the context of global events, particularly after September 11, 2001. It argues that food security issues have been overshadowed by discussions of “security,” despite clear links between agricultural development, economic growth, food security, and national security, especially in impoverished nations. The study employs a historical and institutional analysis, focusing on the factors contributing to the neglect of food security, including the role of agricultural economics, institutional failures within organizations like the World Bank and USAID, and the changing dynamics of the global food economy. The authors propose that renewed attention to food security is essential, advocating for the integration of agricultural development into national security agendas and suggesting specific policy shifts to address hunger and malnutrition effectively. The research employs a qualitative methodology, drawing on historical data, policy documents, and expert opinions to analyze the evolution of food security concerns and the challenges in addressing global hunger in the modern world. The study’s scope encompasses the period from the 1970s to the early 2000s, with a focus on international institutions and their roles in shaping food security policies.

Key Findings & Statistics

• Between September 11, 2001 and May 11, 2005, the word “security” appeared in 20,723 stories in the New York Times, while “food security” was mentioned only 24 times.
• Only about 3% of articles published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics (AJAE) in the past five years have directly dealt with food security problems.
• Estimates suggest that 5 million children die from hunger-related causes per year.
• The total number of hunger-related deaths is estimated at about 8 million annually.
• Food insecurity deaths outnumber war deaths by at least 5 to 1.
• During the 1990s, approximately 1 million lives were lost annually due to civil unrest.
• About 60% of all deaths were in Africa, and more than 25% were in Asia.
• The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO 2004b) estimates that 5 million children die from hunger-related causes per year.
• The World Health Organization and other sources put the total number of hunger-related deaths at about 8 million annually (Hunger Project).
• In 2004, official aid was less than 1% of the total aid.
• USAID disperses globally about $2.2 billion on food and agriculture annually, with 80% in the form of food aid.
• When polled, Americans believe that 24% of the U.S. Federal budget is spent on foreign aid (PIPA).
• Global cereal production increased from 1,192 million metric tons in 1970 to 2,252 mmt in 2004.
• Cropped area was virtually unchanged (676 million hectares in 1970 vs. 681 million ha in 2004).
• Aggregate cereal yields increased from 1.77 tons per ha to 3.31 tons per ha.
• In 1979-81, 36% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa was undernourished, decreasing to 33% in 2000-02.
• The number of undernourished people in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from 125.4 million in 1979-81 to 203.5 million in 2000-02.
• In 2000-02, 17% of the population in the world was undernourished.
• The number of undernourished people in Asia (excluding China) decreased from 634.3 million in 1979-81 to 443.2 million in 2000-02.
• In 2000-02, 11% of the population in China was undernourished.
• The number of hungry people in China alone was reduced by almost 200 million.
• China and Indonesia were the classic large-country successes.
• Twenty countries have more than 35% of their populations in hunger.
• Another twenty-eight nations have hunger rates between 20% and 34%.
• Progress toward reaching the 1996 World Food Summit targets is lagging badly, and there is great doubt about whether the Millennium Development Goal of halving global hunger (to 400 million persons) by 2015 can be reached.
• The real value of total aid to agriculture in the late 1990s was only 35% of its level in the late 1980s (IFAD).
• Agriculture’s share of total World Bank lending fell from an average of about 25% in the mid 1980s to only 10% in 2000 (Pardey and Beintema).
• Total World Bank funding of agricultural research has also declined since the early 1990s.
• The CGIAR’s expenditures on productivity-enhancing agricultural research declined by 6.5% annually in real terms between 1992 and 2001.
• Overall, CGIAR expenditures stagnated over the past decade at about $350 million in nominal terms, implying a fall in real terms of about 2% annually (CGIAR).
• For all of sub-Saharan Africa, total agricultural R&D is only about $1.5 billion.

Other Important Findings

• The authors argue that there is a clear linkage between agricultural development, economic growth, food security, and national security in poor countries.
• The study highlights the importance of revisiting the role of agricultural economists in addressing food security on the G-8 agenda.
• The paper discusses that issues of hunger are not being addressed in a world food economy driven by animal product demand, supermarkets, and subsidies, while being constrained by natural resources and their management.
• The study examines the characteristics of food security and its potential connections to global security, civil conflict, and democratization.
• It analyzes institutional failures that have diminished the focus on food security.
• The authors suggest that improved germplasm, transgenesis, and a focus on crops produced and consumed by the food insecure are among the best food-security investments.
• The study contends that the reduction of poverty and hunger through agricultural development and rural economic growth can promote democratization and reduce violent conflict.
• The paper suggests that the U.S. budget data reflects a lack of focus on international food security.
• The research indicates that poverty is a key determinant of civil war in a country.
• The study suggests that slow income growth, low per capita income, and other economic variables impact the incidence and duration of civil conflict.
• The study points out the fundamental role that agriculture plays in pro-poor growth.
• The paper presents four key issues for solving food insecurity.
• It suggests that the world food economy is being driven by the growth of per capita incomes and the impacts of meat and feed demand in middle-income countries.
• The study notes the need for addressing the rising demand for animal products and the environmental consequences.
• The paper indicates the need to double or triple world cereal production by 2050.
• The research points out the impact of WTO rulings on U.S. agricultural subsidies and its impact on trade patterns and commodity prices.
• The study emphasizes the need for low-income countries to organize much of what needs to be done to address hunger.
• The authors recommend that the World Bank reassert its leadership in rural infrastructure and agricultural R&D.
• The paper suggests that the focus on orphan crops is an effective way to improve the welfare of food insecure populations.

Limitations Noted in the Document

• The study’s analysis is based on historical data, policy documents, and expert opinions, which may be subject to biases or limitations in the data sources.
• The paper does not provide specific solutions or detailed strategies for addressing all the challenges.
• The study acknowledges the complexity of the issues and does not offer a comprehensive framework.
• The study’s focus on the role of institutions may not fully capture the role of other actors, such as individual farmers, in addressing food security.
• The paper acknowledges the lack of a single solution or magic bullet for addressing hunger.
• The authors note the difficulty in generalizing findings due to the variability in economic, political, and social contexts.
• The research does not fully explore the long-term effects of certain policies.
• The study acknowledges that its recommendations may face implementation challenges due to institutional and political constraints.

Conclusion

The authors emphasize the critical need to re-prioritize food security, advocating for a shift in global and national agendas to address the complex challenges of hunger and malnutrition. The authors underscore that “it should be in the interest of agricultural economists to return this concept to the G-8 agenda in light of the clear linkages between agricultural development, economic growth, food security, and national security in poor countries.” The study concludes that “the evidence that civil conflict increases the likelihood of terrorism is mostly anecdotal,” but that food insecurity is still a major issue. This paper indicates that the current approaches to solving global food supply problems, hunger, and malnutrition need to be reevaluated, as current strategies have proven insufficient, and new solutions must be considered. The authors suggest that the focus on food security is not congruent with the earlier McNamara vision or the recent Bank rhetoric on poverty alleviation. The study emphasizes that the magnitude of the Bank’s recent investments in agriculture does not align with the Bank’s rhetoric on poverty alleviation. The paper stresses that sustained economic growth, which includes the poor, is fundamental in supporting food security. They argue that institutions, particularly the World Bank, USAID, and the CGIAR, need to refocus their efforts and investments on agricultural development, especially regarding rural infrastructure and research and development. The authors advocate that academics and policymakers must acknowledge the critical importance of agricultural development and food security, recognizing that “there are few ways for food insecure nations to get around the necessity of rural development.” The paper highlights that the creation of public goods and focused research on improved orphan crops would significantly aid in improving food security. The authors conclude that “the most direct ways to security and democracy, as to love, may be via the stomach!”