Generated Summary
This report, prepared in advance of the United Nations Conference of the Parties 21 (COP21) in Paris, reviews the scientific literature on the roles of reducing animal product consumption and wasted food in meeting climate change mitigation targets. The study examines the impact of livestock production and wasted food on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and explores potential mitigation strategies. The research methodology involves a review of existing scientific literature, including studies on GHG emissions from agriculture, dietary changes, and waste reduction. The scope of the analysis encompasses global trends in meat and dairy intake, the contributions of livestock to climate change, and the potential for reducing emissions through changes in diet and waste management practices. The report also considers the role of policy interventions and behavior change campaigns in achieving emission reduction targets. The report emphasizes the urgency of addressing these issues to mitigate the catastrophic effects of climate change, focusing on the critical need for immediate and substantial reductions in wasted food and meat and dairy intake to meet climate change mitigation goals.
Key Findings & Statistics
- Global mean temperature rise will likely exceed 2°C if global trends in meat and dairy intake continue.
- Livestock production contributes an estimated 14.5 percent of global anthropogenic GHG emissions.
- The single largest share of livestock-related emissions (39%) is from enteric fermentation.
- Manure accounts for 26% of livestock emissions.
- Feed crop production accounts for 24% of livestock emissions.
- Deforestation for feed crops and pasture accounts for 9% of livestock emissions.
- For at least a 66 percent chance of keeping global mean temperature rise below 2° C, estimates suggest global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities must be kept at or below 21 ± 3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per year by 2050.
- In 2010, global emissions reached 49 Gt, more than double the target threshold.
- Under a business-as-usual scenario, emissions from agriculture alone could reach 20.2 Gt CO2e by 2050.
- Reducing meat and dairy intake by 75 percent by 2050 could reduce emissions by 7.4 Gt.
- Eliminating meat for one day per week could reduce emissions by an estimated 1.0 Gt to 1.3 Gt per year relative to 2050 business-as-usual scenarios.
- Halving global wasted food by 2050 could reduce emissions by an estimated 4.5 Gt.
- Combining a healthy, low-meat diet, reducing wasted food by 50 percent, and increasing agricultural yields could reduce agriculture-related emissions by 14.3 Gt by 2050.
- The combined effect of adopting a healthy, low-meat diet, reducing wasted food by 50 percent, and increasing agricultural yields could reduce agriculture-related emissions by 14.3 Gt by 2050.
Other Important Findings
- Immediate and substantial reductions in wasted food and meat and dairy intake, particularly ruminant meat (e.g., beef and lamb), are imperative to mitigating catastrophic climate change.
- The urgency of these interventions is not represented in negotiations for climate change mitigation.
- Per serving, ruminant meat and dairy are far more emissions-intensive per serving than pork and poultry.
- Studies have demonstrated that methane and GHG emissions per unit of beef are lower among cattle fed a higher proportion of concentrate (feed) compared to forage (pasture).
- Accounting for carbon sequestration in well-managed pastureland may shift the balance in favor of grass-fed beef.
- Globally about 30 percent of the food supply is never eaten.
- Discarding food is akin to discarding all the embodied GHG emissions involved in its production.
- Animal products are wasted at relatively low rates (13 percent of global food waste by volume) compared to other foods, but due to their high emissions intensity, account for roughly one-third of GHG emissions associated with food waste.
- In higher-income countries, the majority of waste occurs among consumers, retail, and restaurants.
- Countries prepared plans signifying their initial commitments, subject to change under negotiations, to reduce domestic GHG emissions.
- Reducing livestock production and wasted food are essential for meeting emissions targets.
- Under the business-as-usual scenario modeled by Bajželj et al., emissions from agriculture alone (20.2 Gt CO2e) would nearly reach the emissions threshold in 2050.
- Studies suggest that substantial global reductions in meat intake by 2050 could reduce agriculture-related emissions on the order of 55 to 72 percent, with greater reductions from also reducing dairy and eggs.
Limitations Noted in the Document
- The document acknowledges that the projections of agriculture-related GHG emissions in 2050 vary across different studies.
- The report notes that the studies used different methodologies and scopes, making direct comparisons challenging.
- The study points out that the business-as-usual scenario projections rely on trends in global dietary patterns, based on projections from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
- The report indicates that the emissions reported by Bajželj et al. are greater than those for the other studies because they include a more comprehensive scope of agriculture-related emissions.
- The article does not quantify the amount of carbon sequestration in pasture.
- The document does not account for the full spectrum of agriculture-related emissions in some of the scenarios.
Conclusion
The importance of reducing animal product consumption and wasted food is highlighted as a critical strategy for mitigating catastrophic climate change. The report emphasizes that current global trends in meat and dairy intake, if continued, will likely lead to exceeding the 2°C warming threshold, even with emission reductions in other sectors. The urgency of action is underscored, with a call for immediate and substantial reductions in wasted food and meat and dairy consumption, particularly ruminant meats like beef and lamb. The study indicates that dietary changes, waste reduction, and increased agricultural yields can significantly reduce agriculture-related emissions. The potential benefits of shifting diets towards a lower meat intake are emphasized, with substantial emission reductions possible. Furthermore, the study highlights policy interventions to support these shifts, including subsidies, tax breaks, research, and development of plant-based alternatives. The report concludes that reducing animal product consumption and wasted food are essential for meeting emission targets and preventing severe consequences of climate change. The report recommends policy interventions, behavior change campaigns, and targeting waste reduction interventions in both high-income and low-income countries. In essence, the report advocates for a multifaceted approach, combining dietary changes, waste reduction strategies, and agricultural improvements, to achieve significant and necessary reductions in agricultural emissions. The document provides a call to action for policymakers, businesses, and consumers to prioritize sustainable food practices.
IFFS Team Summary
- Increasing global consumption rates of meat and dairy will likely cause mean global temperature rise to exceed 2° C, even if non agricultural sectors markedly reduce emissions
- Immediate and substantial reductions in meat and dairy intake, particularly ruminant meat (e.g., beef and lamb), are imperative to mitigating “catastrophic climate change”
- Food waste reduction is also highly important
- Ongoing climate negotiations do not reflect urgent need for diet change
- The paper does briefly mention soil carbon sequestration,
- Most sources say sequestration does not make up for emissions,
- One reference finds possible net sequestration, short terms study only, in one location
- However, ruminant meat causes heaviest GHG overall
- Enteric fermentation, manure emissions, emissions from feed, and land use change are the major causes.
- Major papers are summarized in terms of future GHG reductions if both meat and dairy are reduced, and higher technology and yields are achieved
